You’ve gone to a lot of work and it was certainly an interesting read but I cannot see projecting delegates all the way to the convention at this point. One small misstep by any candidate and one debate changing event can completely change the dynamics of the race. We have seen this occur several times so far.
I agree with your ultimate conclusion, however, a brokered convention is much more of a possibility than it was only a few weeks ao.
Rabbit,
This is not so much a projection of how they will turn out as how they WOULD or COULD LIKELY turnout if there was no change to current candidate momentum and/or voter sentiment.
Or at least that is the way I take it.