Please drop out after you blow through your last $12 million taking down Willard the Lib, and then join the winning team of conservatives to take out Obama, the other Lib in our way.
Thanks,
Signed: Your fellow conservatives
Posted on 02/18/2012 11:12:25 AM PST by parksstp
FReepers from the various 57 states and territories, please review the spreadsheet and give me some more insight into these projections. Sources come from The Green Papers and how delegate allocation is done.
Also, to the Gingrich supporters who are bound to start an argument over the delegate allocation between he and Santorum, relax. The important thing in doing this projection was not determining their individual numbers, but trying to figure out whether or not Romney, along with a combination of Paul and Superdelegates could reach the 1,144 number alone. What's important is that the combined delegate numbers I've projected from each state for Santorum and Gingrich exceeds those numbers. Regardless of whether I have Santorum at 36 delegates and Newt 11 in a place like AL, the fact of the matter is those 47 delegates will go to them in some combination while Romney is unlikely to get any. Just keep that in mind when you review the spreadsheet and are looking at the state primary and caucus rules.
ping (or however they do it)
bfl
You’ve gone to a lot of work and it was certainly an interesting read but I cannot see projecting delegates all the way to the convention at this point. One small misstep by any candidate and one debate changing event can completely change the dynamics of the race. We have seen this occur several times so far.
I agree with your ultimate conclusion, however, a brokered convention is much more of a possibility than it was only a few weeks ao.
For those interested in input
Interesting. You’ve put a lot of work in your analysis.
Santorum may not make the ballot in Indiana. He fell short of having enough signatures in one district but is challenging based on signatures thrown out. Several people (8?) have issued challenges to him being on the ballot (several Paulites) and it will be decided on February 26 by the election commission. Unfortunately, the head of that commission is the co-chair for the Romney campaign in Indiana who won’t recuse himself.
Rabbit,
This is not so much a projection of how they will turn out as how they WOULD or COULD LIKELY turnout if there was no change to current candidate momentum and/or voter sentiment.
Or at least that is the way I take it.
Please drop out after you blow through your last $12 million taking down Willard the Lib, and then join the winning team of conservatives to take out Obama, the other Lib in our way.
Thanks,
Signed: Your fellow conservatives
Another increment of your hugely useful analysis! - Thanks
If the changes of the past week or two were projected to continue changing. (i.E if a state move 1% a week toward Gingrich then assume that trend will continue.) I believe Santorum’s numbers would show the landslide that he may yet establish.
We will see thought. We will see.
Saturday, February 18
2012 Republican Presidential Nomination Gallup Tracking
Santorum 35, Romney 29, Gingrich 13, Paul 11 Santorum +6
Gotcha. Like I said, it was an interesting read and does show the increased likelihood of a brokered convention — especially, as you point out, if we take things as they currently stand.
Carry on!
I applaud you effort, and I like the way you think! (it’s the same way I think...so go figure...)
My own thinking hasn’t expanded to factor Ron Paul in as much, so the idea of leveraging Rand is intriguing. He’s not well known and I suspect many just figure “like father, like son”, which I think is true to a point. I really liked what I read in Rand Paul’s budget proposal.
One other possibility might be to offer Ron Paul an important cabinet level position that I’d only slightly tongue-in-cheek call “Minister of Downsizing”. Something like an anti-Czar who would have authority to find and implements government reductions that could be accomplished by executive order. I think this would make conservatives insanely happy and drive liberals just plain insane. But it could leverage Ron Pauls strengths and his delegates and base without incurring the downside of some of his idiotic policy ideas. Harness him up and use him.
Good thinking too about Newt being willing to accept the “senior statesman” role as VP. I think this is not as far out as some may think, as he knows his own strengths and weaknesses better than anyone and I think he is driven more by a sense of history than by ego.
It’s good food for thought and thanks for your time putting this analysis together.
yeah, but it takes 75% (3 out of 4 votes) to kick him off the ballot, and the 2 Democrats on the Commission went on record as saying they have no intention of leaving him off the ballot.
I did not know that. Thanks!
FReepmail “Antoninus” to be added or removed.
I seriously doubt that there will be a brokered convention. Group dynamics would probably prompt a lot of people to jump on board either Rick’s side or Mitt’s, depending upon which one surfaces in the lead after Super Tuesday. Whichever gets the momentum will likely ride to the nomination. (Note: I personally despise the idea of jumping on a leader’s bandwagon simply because he is the leader. I’ve never operated that way. But many people do.)
If I had to predict at this point, I would predict that Rick wins the nomination on the first ballot.
That gives the rural upstate counties almost as much weight as the larger cities (NYC in particular.) The "country-folk" are much more likely to vote Santorum or Gingrich than their city cousins.
There are 3 delegates per district. The winner in that district receives 2 and the second place finisher receives 1.
You may very well be aware of this in which case, never mind.
Nah, Feedback is always welcomed, thank you.
As for NY, I’m estimating here. From what I’ve seen at the Green Papers, it’s 2 delegates per each of the 29 CD’s, then the other 34 are allocated based on the statewide vote, but if the statewide winner gets 50%+, they get all 34.
NY is on the same day as PA, and my assumption is Santorum will spend a lot more time there because his chances winner there are a lot more than NY.
They way I broke NY down. I gave Romney 20 CD’s for 40 Delegates, Santorum 8 CD’s for 16, and 1 CD for Newt for 2. I assumed that Romney would probably get over 50% here and 34 more delegates, but if he doesn’t, then Santorum’s numbers would go up based on his voting percentage.
That’s how I got Rom -74 Sant - 16 Newt 2.
But IF Romney is held under 50%, it changes. Of the 34 delegates, they get allocated based on statewide percentage with a 20% Threshhold. So if Romney got 45%, Santorum 25% Newt 20%, the distribution would be 17 for Romney, 10 for Santorum, and 7 for Newt.
That would make the state totals Rom - 57, Sant 26, and Newt 9.
It all depends on what liberal NYC does.
Your numbers obviously reflect the Santorum blip, mine the thematic consistency of the Speakers candidacy. Note I've elected to publish via Scribd as opposed to Google.
I will pour over your numbers, assertions and comments and get back to you.
At first pass I'll say that I do not see the VP slot as an issue until post primary and for one do not wish nor look for Palins involvement.
Also, GOPe Option 1; being massaged as we speak.
At any rate is fodder for a good fight…
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