Posted on 12/15/2011 6:55:36 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
A month ago, Rasmussen was one of the first pollsters to pick up on Newt Gingrich’s momentum, showing him up 13 points over Mitt Romney in Iowa, 32/19. If Rasmussen has its finger on the pulse of Iowa voters, that momentum didn’t last long. Today’s Rasmussen poll shows Gingrich losing twelve points since November 15th and falling behind Romney for second place, at 23/20:
Take a look at the stability in Romney’s numbers — and the instability in almost everyone else’s. Scott Rasmussen points this out in the video. The only other candidate who’s had any stability at anything above the signal-noise level is … Ron Paul, who’s back to about where he was in August before Rick Perry and Herman Cain had their bubble moments.
The internals show some interesting points. Gingrich captures 27% of “very conservative” respondents, but Romney gets 17%, good for second place. Romney wins the “somewhat conservative” demo by ten points at 29/19 over Gingrich, and not surprisingly, the “other” category at 22%. Paul comes in second rather than third in this last demo at 19%. Rick Perry ties for third place at 14% among very conservative respondents, falls well back to fourth place at 10% in the intermediate group, and drops to 6% among “others.” If Perry wants to get enough of a bounce to compete in two weeks, he needs to either start grabbing a lot more of Gingrich’s “very conservative” support or look for ways to attract the “somewhats.”
Here’s an interesting note from the internals. For all of the class-warfare bombs being tossed by both Gingrich and Romney, Romney beats Gingrich in every income demographic in Iowa except the $75-100K group. Paul, though, beats both in the under-$20K and $60-75K demos.
Romney also leads among people who have made up their minds, 29% to 22% for both Gingrich and Paul, but he also slightly leads those who could change their mind, too — 22/21 over Gingrich, with Paul third at 17%. Perry only gets 7% while he has 14% among those who could change their minds, which means that he is just beginning to convince people to rethink his candidacy. Time is definitely running out for Perry, in other words. Among those certain to show up at the caucuses, Romney’s lead expands to 25/21 with Paul dropping to 17%, and Romney even leads among those not certain to show up, 20/18/18.
It looks like Gingrich has a momentum problem in Iowa. If he can’t close the deal here, can he remain viable in South Carolina and Florida? It’s possible, but given his large polling advantage just days earlier, I’d be a little skeptical. This looks like a re-evaluation based on the heightened scrutiny of Gingrich’s record, and it seems that voters may be having second thoughts.
As I’m reviewing your post I’m listening to a local talk show host and Romney supporter WTMJ’s Charley Sykes gning a second week beating up on Gingrich after dispatching Herman Cain. Sykes repeated and embellised every charge made by the statist steno’ pool for weeks begining the day before the first charge began of hanky-panky was reported by “The Hill” Sykes only quitting after Cain withdrew.
The problem with RINOS is they’re wishing for the old bi-partisan me too politics of yesteryear. They refuse to realize that the present democrat party is controlled by hyphen-ates “dema-coms” SOCIALIST/COMMUNISTS who by creed and disposition will never surrender their position in a bi-partisan manner.
Only a sound trashing of the Democrat party will accomplish this.
RINOS foolishly believe that they can effect a political change within the opposition by taking that appeasement approach when that change must originate within the democrat party. RINOS refuse to believe that it must be done by offering countering political ideas re-aligning concepts of governing based in this case on the original concepts of governing expressed in the constitution..
That’s why Perry is the guy. He leads. He pushes. He stumps. He advocates. He moves the ball down the road. He gets the job done.
You might want to re-visit all his victories against the federal government that he has notched in his belt.
You know, I sort of like Bachmann. I respect her. But her pandering to Cain supporters 2 or 3 times in the last debate made me want to puke. It bothered me worse than the Romney bet line. It was so obvious she was trying to appeal to the Cain crowd to come over to her camp. Doing that in a debate came off very cheesy.
The question was posed, who on this stage have you learned something from.
Newt learned from Rick Perry the bedrock importance of the 10th Amendment.
Perry learned from Ron Paul to extensively read up on the Federal Reserve.
Rick Santorum learned from listening to Newt’s tapes when Rick was running for the House way back when.
I forget what Paul said.
But Bachmann said she learned from Cain. Obviously Cain was not standing there. She mentioned 9 9 9 for a second to transition to “my win win win plan”.
A contrivance beyond the imagination...
Whomever gets the nomination will have my vote.
I just wish I could be excited about it.
I like Perry the best, but other than Romney or Paul I don't have a problem supporting any of them in the general election. They would all be such an improvement over the disaster we have in the WH now.
There is too much emphasis being placed on the Iowa thing and as a matter of fact even the NH primary. In Iowa you have to get em to the loctions. Ihe rules are goofy and it can take up to an hour or more to pick a candidate. In the middle of winter.The whole chest punding procedure has no relationship to what happens during a national election.
I heard Rush say that the candidates have to get themselves out there - he’s not going to help them like that. But everything he is saying now points to Perry. I’m excited about the debate tonight - praying Perry does his best.
If only we could have Perry as Governor here in CA. You don’t know how lucky you are. Esp. concerning the 2nd Amendment
If only we could have Perry as Governor here in CA. You don’t know how lucky you are. Esp. concerning the 2nd Amendment
I hate to say it, but California is one of our most beautiful states that has been ruined by liberals...............It sort of makes me think of the beauty that is the Alps—and it was this enviornment that produced Adolph Hitler! (I’m not comparing California to the Nazi’s (yet—LOL!)
I follow the gun laws quite closely in CA being as how I am president of Second Amendment Sisters-—what are the politicians and citizens out there afraid of?
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