Posted on 12/15/2011 6:55:36 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
A month ago, Rasmussen was one of the first pollsters to pick up on Newt Gingrich’s momentum, showing him up 13 points over Mitt Romney in Iowa, 32/19. If Rasmussen has its finger on the pulse of Iowa voters, that momentum didn’t last long. Today’s Rasmussen poll shows Gingrich losing twelve points since November 15th and falling behind Romney for second place, at 23/20:
Take a look at the stability in Romney’s numbers — and the instability in almost everyone else’s. Scott Rasmussen points this out in the video. The only other candidate who’s had any stability at anything above the signal-noise level is … Ron Paul, who’s back to about where he was in August before Rick Perry and Herman Cain had their bubble moments.
The internals show some interesting points. Gingrich captures 27% of “very conservative” respondents, but Romney gets 17%, good for second place. Romney wins the “somewhat conservative” demo by ten points at 29/19 over Gingrich, and not surprisingly, the “other” category at 22%. Paul comes in second rather than third in this last demo at 19%. Rick Perry ties for third place at 14% among very conservative respondents, falls well back to fourth place at 10% in the intermediate group, and drops to 6% among “others.” If Perry wants to get enough of a bounce to compete in two weeks, he needs to either start grabbing a lot more of Gingrich’s “very conservative” support or look for ways to attract the “somewhats.”
Here’s an interesting note from the internals. For all of the class-warfare bombs being tossed by both Gingrich and Romney, Romney beats Gingrich in every income demographic in Iowa except the $75-100K group. Paul, though, beats both in the under-$20K and $60-75K demos.
Romney also leads among people who have made up their minds, 29% to 22% for both Gingrich and Paul, but he also slightly leads those who could change their mind, too — 22/21 over Gingrich, with Paul third at 17%. Perry only gets 7% while he has 14% among those who could change their minds, which means that he is just beginning to convince people to rethink his candidacy. Time is definitely running out for Perry, in other words. Among those certain to show up at the caucuses, Romney’s lead expands to 25/21 with Paul dropping to 17%, and Romney even leads among those not certain to show up, 20/18/18.
It looks like Gingrich has a momentum problem in Iowa. If he can’t close the deal here, can he remain viable in South Carolina and Florida? It’s possible, but given his large polling advantage just days earlier, I’d be a little skeptical. This looks like a re-evaluation based on the heightened scrutiny of Gingrich’s record, and it seems that voters may be having second thoughts.
I have this fantasy that someone new will come sweeping down the plain and we’ll have a wonderful candidate that we can all get happily behind.
Of course it ain’t a-gonna happen—but to tell the truth, I don’t like any of the Republican candidates..............
Unfortunately the powers that be have established ballot rules that prevent new people from jumping at the last minute.
Looks like whoever gets the next poll surge will take Iowa. I think Perry has a good chance of that.
This is a different article.
This article has some information that is behind the wall at Rasmussen.
Plus this article also has some analysis.
He does. A good chance. But he’ll have to fight for it.
Both Silver and my #'s indicate Gingrich squeaking out a narrow win over Ron Paul, with Romney in third a good bit further back. The only difference was that he had Perry beating Bachmann for fourth, but I agree with that based on the poll data that came out after I did my numbers. (Disclaimer: I'm just an amateur at this, though I've compared my predictions to the outcomes in past races and am only very slightly worse than the pros in my predictions.)
I just can't see Romney building momentum at this point. If Gingrich really does fall off (and I would be surprised if he holds it together), then either Bachmann and Perry have a second wind, or Ron Paul wins it. A Bachmann or Paul win would be a huge victory for the conservative base against the more liberal/big-government RINOs.
If you haven’t already, (and have about 7 minutes) listen to the first part of the 3rd part of Rush’s exchange with Greta.
It sounds like Rush is moving toward a Gov. Rick Perry pick.
LINK to Part 3:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Um1VkPRrYPc
All interview links here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2820633/posts
A Paul victory would completely eliminate Iowa as a player in future elections. After choosing Huckabee last cycle, choosing Paul this cycle would make all future candidates flee. No way would they bother to spend their money in Iowa.
CW I believe this man is a fighter!!!! However you know better than I.
I have always believed he will receive Palin’s endorsement, he has had
a rough start on the national stage but he is getting far more comfortable.
I believe this man is going to end up as our candidate, I hope he has what
It takes to FIGHT was is going to come at him!!!!
And yet you somehow twist this to be a positive for Perry?! H*ll, the Governor of Texas, can't even poll higher than a crazy old coot congressman from his own state! I personally wish he would, but I know he won't.
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I believe Perry and his family do know what this means and what peril lies ahead, but the decision to remain out of it was an impossible choice, given what Americans are faced with. And he will FIGHT.
Good morning.
Too funny...I just sent you a Freepmail about a different Ras Poll thread, and in it I asked what’s new with you?
Then, I find you posting this one on the same subject but with more substance.
:o)
Gingrich lost 40% overnight on Intrade.
“He does. A good chance. But he’ll have to fight for it.”
I’d at least love to see him knock out RuPaul. He’ll need to shine at the debate tonight.
I am disappointed in the GOP offerings this year. Especailly given that we desperately need to defeat Obama.
That is why I’m giving Perry a second chance.
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