Polls Show That They Are Absolutely Worthless

The Iowa Republican ^ | November 22, 2011 | Craig Robinson

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Most Iowans are familiar with the saying, “If you don’t like the weather in Iowa, just give it a few minuets because it is bound to change.” Rapid temperature changes are not the only thing that Iowa is known for these days. It could also be said that if you don’t like which presidential candidate is leading in the polls, just wait a few days, because it’s bound to change.

To date, five of the eight presidential candidates have led a poll of likely caucus goers in Iowa. To put that into perspective, at this time four years ago, only one candidate had led in the polls in Iowa – Mitt Romney. Mike Huckabee would go on to overtake Romney in the polls before he easily won the caucuses, but it shows just how volatile the support of the candidates is this year.

For example, both Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann have polled as high as 29 percent in Iowa, but both have also been as low as 5 percent, which is basically where both of them are today.

Early on, Herman Cain barely showed up in the polls. Cain polled at just one percent in July only to see his numbers soar to 37 percent just a month ago. The latest poll shows Cain at 13 percent. Talk about a rollercoaster ride. With Cain on the decline, Newt Gingrich is now riding high. Gingrich currently polls at 32 percent in Iowa after being as low as 2 percent in July after his entire campaign melted down.

Only Mitt Romney has proven to be consistent when it comes to polling. Even still, there is a 15-point deference between Romney’s high of 29 percent and his low of 14 percent. The volatility in the Iowa polls actually matches the volatility in the national polls, where four candidates have led since May.

So what does it all mean?

First, it means that the race for the Republican nomination is wide open. With the news that Romney is going to actually engage in Iowa, where he has only visited a handful of times since 2008, this shows that even a candidate who had a bitter taste in his mouth after the 2008 caucuses believes that Iowa is wide open and that he has an opportunity to win here.

Second, it also suggests that no candidate, even Romney, has yet sealed the deal with potential caucus goers. What’s odd about the slate of Republican candidates is that, when they see their names at the top of a poll, it seems as if they actually believe that they did something to earn that spot. As has been the case with each of five candidates who have led Iowa polls, they have all “earned” the top spot by garnering a lot of national media attention instead of working hard in Iowa and seeing it eventually pay off.

While the media and political observers scramble whenever the results of a new poll are made public, thus far, the polls have proven to be worthless. Instead of providing a glimpse of where likely caucus goers are leaning, the polls have acted more like Nielsen television ratings. Instead of indicting candidate support, the polls tell us what show, or in this case, which candidate, is currently popular.

The polls have been rendered useless. If a candidate like Rick Perry can go from 29 percent to 7 percent in the same poll in less than a month and a half, one has to question whether or not he was ever at 29 percent in the first place. If Herman Cain can drop from 28 percent to 15 percent in the same poll in the span of a month, one can also conclude that he was never riding as high as his highest poll numbers.

As the January 3rd caucuses draw near, the only thing that we are certain about is that anything can happen. In many ways we are heading into the caucuses blind. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Iowa’s caucuses goers should vet the candidates and support the candidate they prefer instead of letting some poll sway their opinion.

In the next 40 days, Iowans will continue to be inundated with more and more polling results. They would be wise to ignore all of them. Most polls have proven to be meaningless, and the only poll that we can really trust will be the one taken on caucus night.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Happy Thanksgiving Freepers.

Gobble-Gobble!

[Pravious]

“The polls have been rendered useless. If a candidate like Rick Perry can go from 29 percent to 7 percent in the same poll in less than a month and a half, one has to question whether or not he was ever at 29 percent in the first place.”

No, not really.

People who don’t like Romney are trying to find a candidate they can get behind... and just as we get behind him (or her) the rug is pulled out on them (either because of media propaganda or some stupid thing they themselves have done) and we flit to another candidate.

The problem is that none of the anti-Romney’s is really acceptable.

And neither is Romney.

And it’s too late for anyone else.

And sitting out and allowing another 4 years of Obama’s destruction of the country is not an option either.

We The People are good and royally screwed.

[GeronL]

Almost as if it was designed to happen that way.

[SatinDoll]

The Republicans may very well go into their nominating convention without a winner from the primaries/cauci: this means someone, who hasn’t openly declared their candidady, could be the Republican candidate by the time the balloons drop.

[GeronL]

That would be.... interesting

[BfloGuy]

The author is wrong, in my opinion. Well-conceived polls with a carefully selected sample are useful, and there is no reason to disbelieve them (in general) this year simply because their results have been fluctuating.

Many of us have changed our minds several times already and may well again -- the polls are accurately reflecting that. The presidential stakes are higher than they have ever been, and, for the first time, a significant number of Republicans has decided that we don't need to settle for a Democrat-lite.

We've set our standards so high, though, that it's been difficult to find candidates who can live up to our ideals. Sooner or later, though, we'll vote.

[rhombus]

...and, for the first time, a significant number of Republicans has decided that we don't need to settle for...

Where you been? This is nothing new. Not around here anyway.

[dirtboy]

The author is wrong, in my opinion.

I imagine the author doesn't like polls because they don't show his fave leading the field at the moment.

If they did, he would be writing a glowing article about how accurate and wonderful polls are.

[Irenic]

Thank you and a very Happy Thanksgiving to you, too!

[normy]

Well I have seen 2 polls released the same day having in one Cain at 13% and in the other 25% while Gingrich was at 32% in one and 5% in the other.

Those were national polls released the same day.

[dirtboy]

I would guess they had very different internals. My point stands that the writer of this piece probably doesn’t like the treatment his candidate has gotten in the polls.

[txrangerette]

Are his facts wrong?

Is he misinterpreting the facts he states in support of his conclusion?

Aside from the writer’s internal thoughts, which we don’t know, even though we could guess all day long...

What do you make of the polls?

He was trying to explain that the polls have been subject to great changes over time, and his final conclusion was that the race is wide open.

Your thoughts?

[dirtboy]

I am noting a basic fact of life for opinionators - polls suck when they don’t tell you what you want to hear, and they are great when they do. I honestly doubt this column would have been written had the polls said what this columnist wanted to hear. Your opinion may vary.

[shield]

p> Perry Ping....

IF you'd rather NOT be pinged FReepmail me.

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Per SD
This is just how Rick Perry is. After Hurricane Ike devastated my community, he came here to survey the damage. He did not just walk through here surrounded by security and news cameras and then make a speech. That's not Perry. He showed up in jeans and a work shirt, no cameras, no press conference, and he walked among all of us who had been hit. A hug, a pat on the shoulder, a listening ear, and an encouraging word. He saw to it that emergency shelters were being set up and food and water were available to everyone. When Obama/FEMA refused to help us, Governor Perry set up state funding to help us rebuild our homes and our lives. My home is at 'ground zero' where Ike came ashore. We all took tremendous damage. FEMA sent me a check two months later for $600 dollars. Governor Perry set up the Recovery Fund to help us all rebuild. That is what a true leader and a true Christian does. That's my Governor! I can't wait to see America under the caring wing of Rick Perry.

[luvie]

I imagine the Hobama cronies are chuckling into their Wheaties.

They did what a primary vote couldn’t...disenfranchised a room
full of candidates without lifting a finger. The press and
the candidates’ own mistakes did the job for them.

Sara should have stayed. Now we nominate someone who is truly
flawed and are, yes, probably screwed.

[RichInOC]

Which is, of course, not even remotely what Perry Fan was saying about them when Perry was leading in them.

[altura]

Not really true. Perry and Gingrich are decent candidates and could easily beat Obama.

Most of the others could also, but I’d stumble to the polls to vote for them.

[GeronL]

Yep.

*sigh*

[potlatch]

I heard that Polls are for dancers and cross country skiers, lol. The funniest polls are when people are told to go 'hit it'........we know those are gonna be fair, lol.

[devolve]

.

How many Polls does it take to steal an election?

.