Posted on 10/02/2011 1:17:04 PM PDT by Amerisrael
A Palin victory will depend on the decisions the voters will make based upon her record in Alaska and the solutions she presents to the problems currently plaguing this country.
Once a primary is running full force, most voters don’t remember or give the slightest hoot as to which candidate had jumped in a full year ahead of the game and which candidate is only in the race a half a year or three quarters of a year. Votes based on such calculations are petty, foolish, and therefore probably non-existent. When questioned at exit polls, voters usually point to a particular position on policy which they feel strongly about, or an approach to a current problem and which they feel their candidate has got it right.
Yes, in 2008 many voted for Obama mainly to assuage their conscience, feel righteous, and join those creating history. But by and large, especially in difficult times, voters vote for a candidate because of their confidence in him or her to lead the country and to deal with the issues.
Additionally, Obama’s grandiose though empty promises were also the deciding factor for many of those who voted for him and were swept up, up, up and away in his euphoric rhetoric only to have since landed back to reality with a painful thud. In 2012, promises will therefore not be enough. Candidates are and will continue to be requested to provide proof to their claims and promises via their records and undergo careful scrutiny and questioning about specifics in their past.
Those that have repeatedly attempted to nail Palin down to a date at which she must declare her candidacy or the games is over, are therefore either ignorant of the facts or purposely attempting to mislead the people. For what difference does it now make to anyone that Romney has announced his candidacy on the specific date he chose to do so or that Perry’s announcement came after Romney’s?
Since these are the same individuals who mock the millions of her supporters as idiotic and foolish for allowing themselves to be strung along and taken for a ride, it appears to be the latter. For her supporters are comprised of a diverse group of Americans who are united in that they actually aren’t afraid to think for themselves and haven’t allowed the pundits to decide for them who they must support and vote for. They falsely portray the vast majority of her supporters as cultists, worshipers, and the like, totally ignoring the incredible amounts of knowledge these supporters know about her record, which is why they are ready to do all they can to see her win this nomination. It’s not about the person itself, but about the ideology, record, and achievements behind her, and the clear and bold solutions she constantly presents to ensure success in the future, which no other candidate comes close to her heels.
It’s pretty comical to watch how many who’ve gone utterly berserk over the fact that Palin hasn’t yet announced her candidacy despite her having said last week that there won’t be any announcement before the end of September, are the very same people who’ve had no problem when other candidates such as Perry has retracted his promise from the 2010 campaign not to run for the presidency. If it’s perfectly understandable that times have changed in the last year and a half which thus caused him to have a change of mind, how is that so different from pushing off a decision another couple of days or weeks due to political shifting? This isn’t a reversal on policy such as Perry on Gardasil and Romney on just about everything. The actual timing of the announcement, although it may have an effect on the style and other aspects of her campaign, won’t be of any serious significance to the voters in the weeks and months afterwards.
Ultimately, a decision will be made and we will all be privy to it. Those who’ve mocked and derided her for stringing along her supporters while not planning to run and seeking only publicity and attention will probably be proven wrong, and left to scramble with something somewhat comprehensible in response, while those who’ve had to deal with the scorn and endless name-calling will watch in amusement. For those who laugh last, laugh best.
Oh, so now it's the extent of the majority percentage giving Romney the win in the respective States that's the important thing?
So what you're saying is; you have no problem with the other States I mentioned giving Romney the majority of votes in the primary...just Utah? Fact is, whether Romney won a State by one percentage point or 30, he still WON that respective state!
How is it you're able to divine what's in the hearts of Utahans who voted for Romney in 2008, but not those living in the other States who gave Romney the State Caucus/Primary wins? Again, if Mittens were to have won the 2008 primary, the 52% who voted for him in Maine, would've had the same effect as those 90% from Utah.
You know very well I wasn't equating Catholics with Mormons, I was making a point that you conveniently didn’t mention other states that went for Romney in the Primary based on their majority faith.
And please, I don't need you to lecture me on the particulars of the LDS faith. I've looked at ALL of the 26 Volumes of the Journals of Discourses, Mormon Doctrine, Articles of Faith, History of the Church yada, yada. I've debated the LDS ad Nauseam for several years.
The bottom line is, you have a problem with Utah who gave Romney the majority of votes in the 2008 primary, but not the other States who also gave him a victory. You claim to know what's in the hearts of Utahans, but curiously are silent on the other states who also voted majority for Romney.
I was adressing the point that Utah will again go for Romney and the reason is his Mormonism.
Percentage does matter because it shows the identity politics of Utah at work. He didn’t win by that much in any other state and unless he drops out he will win Utah again by a large percentage this time. The other states voted for him within a reasonable percentage, Utah did not.
IOW, Utah is not in play.
Wow, facts totally nuked his argument.
So it's OK for Mormons to vote for the liberal Mitt Romney because he is a Mormon, but unfair for a conservative Republican to vote against him? /sarcasm
So what we can divine from this is that Utah is about +40 to Mitt.
Also meaning that ‘Utah voting the most conservative’ is complete bunk.
Why not make a friendly wager. If you believe that Mitt will lose the Utah primary, I can wager that he will. You up for this?
Palin said this election would be unconventional, and i believe her.
By-the-way, glad to hear that you left the LDS Church and found the true Jesus Christ of the Bible.
I was making the point that several other states went for Romney as well.
‘Also meaning that ‘Utah voting the most conservative’ is complete bunk.”
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Actually, we have two very conservative House members: Jason Chaffetz and Rob Bishop. We also have the newly elected Senator Mike Lee who is also very conservative.
We are indeed conservative (witht the exception of Salt Lake City).
Oh, I agree, but Mormonism is more compelling than conservatism.
You got the latter part of that right, but Sarah has never said the words, "drop dead date" in regards to when she'll enter the race. If she had, we wouldn't be having this conversation right now, because that would have been her de facto announcement.
I like Sarah and was ready to support her a year ago, but I doubted she would run. I still doubt it, and she should have made up her mind by now.
If you've doubted that she's going to run for so long, why are you so bent out of shape that she hasn't "made up her mind by now"? Doesn't that just sort of confirm what you've been thinking all along?
And you were ready to support her a year ago, but what - she didn't jump into the race in October of 2010, so you lost faith or something? Uh-huh....
On August 12th she said, “You know, I have siad that August/September is very important for logistical and legal reasons to jump in there.”
Q, So by next month?
A. “I think that for practical reasons that has to be a drop dead, also in fairness to supporters who are standing by, this is what I have told Todd over and over agian, I don’t want to be seen as, or perceived as, stringin’ people along, ask supporters don’t jump in there on the bandwagon because I may jump in, so hold off a little bit. That’s not fair to them.”
So yes she did say “drop dead”, you can see it at about 2:40 on the video here at...
http://politicons.net/palin-i-will-decide-by-september-whether-to-run/
I’m not pushed out of shape about it, but I agree with her. It’s not fair to ask supporters to hang around at this point waiting for her to make up her mind. I’m dissapointed not so much that she hasn’t announced she is running, because I wouldn’t blame her if she doesn’t, but I do feel she is stringing people along.
Well, it certainly depends on one date: October 28, which is now the last day to file for the NH primary (up until last week, it had been October 31, for FL).
Despite repeated assertions, neither Utah (the supposed cutoff date is for non-affiliated, i.e., minor party, candidates) nor Michigan (someone read November as October, and somehow it stuck) have earlier registration dates.
The dates follow fast and furious after that, and no one can afford to give away potential delegates and still hope to win the nomination.
That said, the main point of the article is correct — come January, no one’s gong to care who entered the race in May, June, July, August, or October (no entries in September). They’re going to care about what kind of candidates they see, on what principles they’re campaigning and how they’re going about it.
I agree with you (and with Sarah) that she has to let the people know what her intentions are very soon. As she said, it's only fair to her supporters, who've been standing by in loyalty to her.
My personal view is that it would be wise for her to declare before the middle of October, and make sure that she's made the first filing dates. If she goes beyond that point without announcing her intentions, I believe support for her candidacy will wither.
I’m dissapointed not so much that she hasn’t announced she is running, because I wouldn’t blame her if she doesn’t, but I do feel she is stringing people along.
Having watched Sarah Palin these last three years, I think she's made of better stuff than that. I honestly feel that she's staying out for as long as she practically can, to keep from being damaged by the ongoing demolition derby that's occurring in the race at this time.
I have a feeling that if she had her druthers, she'd stay out even longer, but the looming filing dates are going to force her to step in soon.
If Cristy jumps into the race by the help of the eastern money establishment after not serving full term, it will remove any justified complaints about Palin by these same people. Palin jumped as a benefit to the people of Alaska as much as herself. Cristy jumped to satisfy money enablers of the NE, the same kind of crowd that tried to scuttle Reagan. I have negative feelings against Nancy being part of the crowd Ronald wasn’t. Palin could be the better poker player waiting for other cards to be on the table. A Palin-Cain ticket either way suits me just fine.
Very true. I also feel that if Christie enters the race, it will compel Sarah to move more quickly on her announcement, as he will no doubt be the final hope of the establishment, which she will rightfully see as a threat that only she can remove.
I never said that. I would love to see a conservative win Utah, but the fact is Mitt will win Utah. There is no pressure for Palin to race to meet a Utah deadline because she is not likely to win, and it is a religious issue there.
When I lived in Utah (and I was LDS) I saw it firsthand. The LDS vote for the LDS and have a strong distrust of ‘gracers’ (their word for Evangelicals). Palin could easily win a lot of states, but sadly, Utah isn’t one of them.
I want in on that bet. I’m putting up a $40 donation to Freep that Mitt wins Utah.
The game changer in the GOP Primary will be Gov. Palin should she decide to enter. I believe if she enters, all but Perry and Romney will blow away like dust in the wind. The fact is, Romney’s only saving grace is the GOP establishment types.
By-the-way, glad to hear that you left the LDS Church and found the true Jesus Christ of the Bible.
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Thank you. I am glad every day that God rescued me from Mormonism.
Re; Utah - you are forgetting the LDS distrust of Evangelicals - of which Sarah Palin is one.
Now, I will say that there is a revival going on in Utah (Praise God!) and people are leaving the LDS in droves. Evangelical churches are growing rapidly and many of the new believers are also Ex-Mormon. I work with a couple of ministries to the LDS and have heard a lot on this subject.
So, if we assume that the Evagelicals vote at the same rate as the LDS, then Mitts win won’t be as much (perhaps only about 70 -75%) especially against Palin. But, I don’t see any way Palin can win Utah and frankly, I think it would be a waste of time and money for her to focus on it - especially with other battleground states that she could easily take from Mitt.
Did you miss the /sarcasm tag? I pretty much agree with you.
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