Run Sarah, Run!
Posted on 09/25/2011 12:42:05 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
It is hard to argue that Sarah Palin's delay in formally announcing her candidacy has been anything other than a smashing success. I have been among a minority who have contended from the outset that Governor Palin's delay in announcing was prudent strategy both for financial as well as political reasons. She has been able to campaign both in Iowa and New Hampshire within the last month, garnering huge amounts of publicity and the largest crowds of the campaign season. Her crony capitalism speech in Indianola on September 3 has driven the debate (as well as the GOP debates) even in her absence from the stage. It exposed the first chink in the armor of James Richard Perry, who has continued to bumble his chances, as some of us predicted he would. Meanwhile, Michele Bachmann has virtually disappeared from the radar screen, and is rumored to be broke, having poured every resource she had into winning the meaningless Ames Straw poll and paying the likes of Ed Rollins. And Mitt Romney remains in the low twenties, unable to put any daylight between himself and the weak field he faces. Romney's weakness--in the face of his opponents' implosion--has led the Establishment to begin to trot out what must be its last reserves, to wit: Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, a liberal Establishment Republican to the left even of Romney.
Sarah Palin has positioned herself beautifully, as events have unfolded in the last month, by not formally announcing. And she has spent not one dime doing it. On August 14, I argued here that the principal reason for her to delay is financial. The Establishment is already funding two major candidates, Romney and Perry. They are trying to launch a third, Chris Christie. Well heeled to be sure, the GOP Establishment does not have limitless funds, and the burn rate for Romney and Perry (plus Christie, if he gets in) will stretch its resources to the limit.
Sarah Palin will, I argue, have adequate funds, but she will not be able to match the Establishment dollar for dollar. By waiting, she spends nothing while the Establishment spear carriers flit from straw poll to straw poll to fundraiser, spending cash by the boatload, to so little effect that a third major Establishment candidate is now poised to enter.
Sarah Palin is husbanding her resources while the Establishment is spending hand over fist, while dividing its admittedly much larger warchest several ways. In effect, Palin--who will be the insurgent candidate--is evening the odds. She is learning from some of the mistakes of the 1976 and 1980 Reagan campaigns, which overspent early in both cycles and ran out of money both times, costing the Gipper the nomination in 1976 and very nearly derailing him in 1980. Her delaying game, coupled with the multiplication of Establishment candidacies (a divide and conquer strategy, so to speak), has put her in the catbird seat.
Moreover, her delay is forcing the Establishment to play its cards first...to put its candidates out front first for the public to scrutinize. Palin knows that her formal announcement would take the spotlight and scrutiny, as well as the pressure, off the Establishment candidates since all eyes would then turn to her. And she is not about to give her Establishment opponents such a break. The vetting process has been very hard on the new candidates so far, and Palin is wisely allowing it to continue.
Meanwhile, under the radar screen, she is better organized than any of the declared candidates, with her O4P legions in nearly every state, particularly Iowa, quietly assembling names of volunteers and positioning themselves to strike as soon as she gives the word.
A Civil War analogy comes to mind. At Second Manassas in August 1862, Robert E. Lee was confronted with two Union Armies, whose combined strength was far greater than his own. He realized that he had to prevent them from uniting in order to defeat them separately. Understanding that the first Army--commanded by the timid George B. McClellan---would move slowly, Lee turned his attention to the other, commanded by the impetuous John Pope. Lee sent half his Army under Stonewall Jackson, perhaps 25,000 men, to lure Pope into battle, while keeping the other half, under James Longstreet, with him. Jackson mounted a lightning strike on the federals at Cedar Mountain, driving Pope back to the Rappahanock River, and then old Stonewall vanished into the Bull Run Mountains. Jeb Stuart hit him next, raiding Pope's headquarters and making off with $350,000 in cash and Pope's dress coat. Pope, enraged, took off after Jackson. When he finally found him two weeks later, Jackson was dug in on the railroad cut at the old Bull Run Battlefield from a year earlier.
Pope hurled his army of 62,000 against Jackson, trying to dislodge the stubborn rebels. At the end of the first day, Jackson's lines had wavered but held. Meanwhile, unbeknownst to Pope, Lee had brought up the second half of his Army under Longstreet and positioned it on the federal left, concealed by the dense foliage. The next day, Pope renewed his attack on a two mile front, stretching Jackson's line to the breaking point. Civil War historian Bruce Catton sets the scene:
"The Yankees drove against Jackson on a two mile front stretching his line to the breaking point. His men threw rocks at the attackers when their ammunition ran out. Still Longstreet waited. Not until the last Yankee reserves had been thrown against Jackson did he take action. Then he launched his counterattack. An artillery barrage smashed the left side of the Union forces. Rebel infantry, 'screaming like demons emerging from the earth', fell upon the surprised Yankees as Longstreet's five divisions rolled against the Union flank.... As Pope tried to halt Longstreet on his left, Jackson hit him on the right. The whole Union line bent like a horseshoe."
Palin's hit and run tactics of last summer in Iowa and New Hampshire are reminiscent of Jackson's and Stuart's tactics in August 1862. She continues to live rent free in the heads of the permanent political class, and her lightning strikes have forced them to react to HER, rather than forcing her to react to THEM. Just when the Establishment begins to hope it is rid of her, she pops up unexpectedly, and strikes it a blow that sends it reeling. At the same time, she manages to keep her intentions (and especially her timing) obscure enough to deny her enemies an easy fix on her as a target.
The huge vacuum in the current field, coupled with the many hints she has dropped over the last four months, suggest that Palin will enter the fray, but at the last possible moment, when the maximum amount of the Establishment's reserves, both financial and political, have been exhausted, or at least committed. Her entry will generate a tidal wave of excitement and energy, a political feu d'enfer reminiscent of the artillery barrage at Second Manassas, through which her legions of supporters will pour to vanquish the tattered, dispirited Hessian hirelings of the Establishment.
To those who are pleading "Run, Sarah, run", my rejoinder is "Wait, Sarah, wait." Strike when the maximum advantage has been gained. Not before.
Well, that attitude will certainly influence people to your position...
If he does he will be serving illegally just as Obama is illegally serving as President of the U.S. We all know liberals and Democrats don’t give a rats rear about the Constitution or abiding by the rule of law perhaps Republicans won’t either.
Either way the issue is not going away until it is resolved.
Actually, I think Cain COULD beat Obama, were it not for the detail that he can’t beat Romney.
Aside from the fact that Romney and the complicit media will never let anyone forget Cain’s lack of political experience, his age, and his medical history —
Obama’s running; no need for anyone to show up for the Dem primaries. The open primaries in most states will be attended by Republicans, brainless moderates and “independents” and anybody who wants Obama to face the weakest possible GOP candidate.
Cain’s not winning that. Get the pixie dust out of your eyes. If the polls say it’s close you will be trampled flatter than a Perry punchline, by crossovers on Primary Day. Dems want the closest thing to Obama and they will vote Romney wherever they can.
They're starting to show their faces again.
I threw in my (rare) two cents on a Perry thread today, and the claws came out like you wouldn't believe. Although I simply echoed the responses of 95% of the posters on the thread, I nevertheless got special treatment.
Ah well. They sure learned me for daring to open my big mouth.
Run Sarah, Run!
I think that a Cain or a Palin would both have the sense to take that approach.
Oh yes - and come 2012 the clowny politicians and media
will be so confused and befuddled. They just don’t get
common sense...
P.S. Hubby just said Michelle will be on Extreme Makeover
in 5 minutes...speaking of clowns...
Off your nut as usual.
I think you would really benefit by taking a break from all things Palin. You've been having daily conniptions and heart attacks about her for months on end.
“And, what EXACTLY is your problem with any of what she said in that interview?? Huh??”
I don’t have a problem with the content of what she said. I also agree with Perry wrt Romney’s flipfloping. It’s just that after 8 years of Dubya’s mumbling and fumbling, we don’t need another mumblefumbler at the top of the ticket.
Another sucker heard from...I don’t blame you for taking this position...what else could you do?
Except their past will tell you if you're being lied to. If someone claims they'll clean up DC, have they done anything like that before or been buds with the elites? The past IS important. It tells you connections and where their allegiance is.
Because she hasn't called you and told you personally?
“Cheney bailed out of Yale and transferred to U of Wyoming, and no one made a big deal out of that. Harry Truman finished up at high school, and he would be scads better than any Dem candidate over the last 30 years.”
The reason why people brought up Palin’s academic record instead of Cheney’s is because everything fits the type. She can’t articulate very well, didn’t complete her term, reality TV star... and so it’s not a surprise that she also has a poor academic record. You can try to explain away one thing, but it’s the general pattern that counts.
You in Post 475 that was removed: Oh, I forgot. Yoy were a boob then too. I never wrote that Stephen signed to do a nudie film (prove me wromg and I'll quit FR forever).
You're still here. You are not a man of your word so who would take your opinion seriously?
Obama should not be President now.
So could I. Doesn't matter to me what order they are in, they are our best bet for defeating Obama/Clinton. I have a gut feeling that Obama is going to replace Biden on the ticket with Hillary Clinton. This will prop him up somewhat with those low poll numbers. Wouldn't be surprised if Obama cuts the deal shortly in order to keep her from challenging him for the nomination.
I'm talking about the fact that you singled out Palin supporters for sole and special criticism, in regards to flaming posts.
Of all supporter contingents on this website, we Palin supporters have been taking more flak, for a longer period of time, than any other group. We even had to borrow a term from Dubya's days in office to describe it - PDS. Next to Obama, no other political figure has been more vilified and spat upon, on Free Republic, than Sarah Palin.
If you've really defended Palin "from the beginning" as you say, then you're well aware of the fact that her supporters didn't do anything to start the incessant warfare that has sprung up between her supporters and detractors. We simply committed the unforgivable crime of honestly admiring her, and for having the temerity to do so enthusiastically.
Even worse, we actually had the gall to defend her against malicious gossip-mongering and ad hominem attacks.
Alright, I think I got that out of my system. It wasn't aimed at you personally, but you sort of struck a nerve there. I understand your doubts about everything that's occurring, but hang in there. We've got a long way to go, and I believe that Sarah Palin will lead as always, in the coming difficult months.
Amen to that...got the bruises to prove it...:oP
I think ari-freedom should follow pissant. He is very insulting and annoying.
He may be pissant.
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