Romney vs Palin: How Palin beats Obama in 2012

Yesterday I projected ahead why I felt Mitt Romney would lose in a close election to President Obama.

1)Not being able to personally maximize the turnout of WHITE conservative/evangelical voters or motivate them to come out and support him

2)Not holding Obama to 13% of the conservative vote (what the Democrats got in the 2010 midterms) and/or facilitating the establishment of a 3rd party to bleed conservative votes away from him

3)Not being able to win the white working class vote by 30 points as the GOP did in 2010 because the demographics are not Romney's cup of tea.

So I am going to flip it around to why I believe Sarah Palin will win a close election against President Obama in 2012.

1)Sarah Palin will able to maximize the turnout of WHITE conservative and evangelical voters by motivating them to turn out for her.

This aspect of Palin's superstar ability is what scares Team Obama and the Left the most.

In 2008, as a percentage of the overall electorate, white voters only represented 73.5% of the it, while non-white voters represented about 26% of it. Millions of white conservatives simply did not vote while Obama maximized the turnout of the non-white vote.

McCain got 55% of the white vote to 43% for Obama. In 2004 Bush got 58% of the WHITE vote to Kerry's 41% for a 17 point margin. So not only did fewer WHITES vote in 2008, McCain beat Obama by 5 fewer percentage points as well among WHITE voters, the double whammy.

Obama finished the 2008 election with just over 7% more of the popular vote than McCain.

On November 2, 2010, the percentage of WHITE voters who voted as a percentage of the overall electorate went up to 77%.

The Republicans got 60% of the WHITE vote to 37% for the Democrats. So the reverse double whammy occurred in the case for Republicans.

And the GOP finished with just over 7% more of the popular vote than the Democrats did. And we know that the GOP had its best results in a midterm election since 1938.

The blueprint for GOP success in 2012 Congressional elections has been established: Maximize white turnout and Palin must beat Obama by over 20 points among WHITE voters in the 2012 Presidential election.

Currently Obama is polling around 38% with WHITE voters in a few polls like Gallup and PEW, and now nowhere close to the worrisome 42%-43% of the WHITE voters he garnered right after the Bin Laden killing.

During the week of the midterm election with the Gallup weekly summary Obama's approval with WHITE voters was pegged at 36%. And we know again what happened on Nov. 2/2010.

To say Obama is virtually back now to square one in his poll numbers with WHITE voters as compared to his poll numbers around the 2010 midterms is definitely not a stretch.

Yes, the argument will be made that Obama will be able to turn out more of the non-white vote in 2012 and thus change the demographics but I contend with Palin as the nominee, WHITE voters will come out with just as much intensity and enthusiasm as they did in 2010 and perhaps more so if that is possible. Could I see a slight drop-off in the percentage of the WHITE vote in 2012 in terms of the overall electorate? Yea, but not to the extent we saw in 2008 or that I envision with Romney as the nominee. Palin would imho still be able to turn out WHITE voters in 2012 to the extent that they would represent at least 75.5% of the overall vote.

And by also beating Obama in comparable terms with WHITE voters as the GOP did in 2010 over the Democrats Palin would be able to win a close election.

And finally in terms of WHITE evangelical voters, PEW Research found that Obama's approval/disapproval with this group had fallen from a May total of 28/63 to 18/75 in June, a net difference of -22 in one month.

On November 2, 2010, the Democrats were able to only win 19% of WHITE evangelical voters, down from 24% that Obama got in 2008.

With Sarah Palin at the helm I see no way Obama is going to get close to 24% of the WHITE evangelical vote in 2012 and that 19% may even be a high-water mark for the Messiah as he goes up against "one of their own".

2)The conservative vote as a percentage of the overall electorate in 2008 was 34%.

In 2008 McCain got 78% of the conservative vote while Obama got 20%. Joel Mowbray, in his post-election analysis cited this one statistic as pivotal, claiming it was a myth that a maximum turnout of Black and the youth vote propelled Obama to victory but in fact it was the defection of 3 of these main categories of conservatives to Obama that provided the margin:

a)Conservative-leaning GOP independents (former Republicans)disgusted with Bush.

And again you have to remember fewer conservatives turned out as well because of McCain.

Well in 2010, the conservative share of the vote of the overall electorate went up from 34% to 41%. This was sparked no doubt by the hatred and disgust of Obama and his radical agenda but in addition Gallup found that the percentage of the electorate who self-identified as conservatives also went up between 2008 and 2010 by about 7 points with the moderate slice of the electorate shrinking from 45% in 2008 to 38% in 2010. Folks that is a huge swing in ideology among the American voters and simply means the American electorate going into 2012 will be more CONSERVATIVE than it was in 2008. This polling stat has been relatively ignored or given only cursory notice by the MSM. I wonder why?

In 2010, the Republicans got 84% of conservative vote and the Democrats 13%, which is closer to what Kerry got in 2004. So again we see the double whammy in effect which caused a landslide win for the GOP about 8 months ago.

Now with respect to 2012, I see no reason why conservative enthusiasm would be dampened with Sarah Palin at the helm. I defy you with a straight face to make a convincing argument that conservatives would rather vote for a Marxist than a Reagan conservative who believes in the "three-legged stool", would refuse to come out and support her or vote 3rd party. If anything it will be intensified as the opportunity to deny Obama a second term will be looming and the anger and outrage over Obama and especially his economic and fiscal/monetary polices become even more acute than it is now as business conditions and government budgetary issues worsen beyond what they are now. And it would be especially intensified because conservatives would know if they did not come out and vote and indeed vote for Palin, Obama would get a second term. And the thought of Obama getting a second term frankly scares the living daylights out of most conservatives.

And with Palin's influence and leverage with conservatives and evangelicals, I cannot see Obama getting any more than the 13% of the conservative vote that the Democrats got in 2010 and nowhere close to the conservative vote he got in 2008.

And if Palin can again maximize the turnout of conservative voters to where they hit at least 40% of the overall electorate as was the case in 2010, she will be able to benefit from the double whammy herself as the GOP did in 2010.

And in regards to the three groups that were highly instrumental in handing Obama the victory in 2008, conservative independents will gravitate towards Palin because a great many of them are Tea Party members.

Security moms returned to the GOP in 2010 as only 39% of WHITE female voters cast their votes for the Democrats to 58% for the GOP.

This past week AP-GfK reported that only 37% of WHITE female voters feel at this time that Obama deserves to be re-elected. In 2008 Obama got 46% of the white FEMALE vote.

In addition PEW Research found in its monthly poll that Obama's approval/disapproval had gone from 43/45 in May to 40/51 in June a net loss of 9 points in one month among WHITE female voters.

And finally among Roman Catholics the Democrats only got 44% of the overall Catholic vote in 2010 while in 2008 Obama got 54% of the overall RC vote.

In the PEW poll Obama fell from a 51/41 in May with Catholic voters to 46/45 in June for a net difference of -9.

Again divided by income, the WHITE working class vote (WWC) is classified by those earning under $50,000 a year or by education those who do not have at least a Bachelor's Degree from a college.

Now focusing on the latter category, exit polls in 2008 found that that 39% of all voters were WWC voters and 40% of them voted for Obama. 58% voted for McCain, a 18 point spread.

Ruy Teixiera in a recent piece at The New Republic suggested that Obama "could survive easily on a 23 point deficit", John Kerry's margin in 2004.

Teixiera further wrote, "That Obama would likely win with this very large deficit, while Kerry lost, indicates just how the demographics of the country has shifted in the 8 years since Kerry's defeat. But while the bar may be lower, he still needs to clear it, and at the moment, that's looking like a real challenge."

Now regarding Sarah Palin, the WWC voters are her bread and butter as polls over the last several months have suggested. Since post-Huckabee polls have been taken with her in the mix, Sarah Palin has absolutely dominated in this demographic among all the GOP presidential contenders.

Conversely as we learned from the 2008 primary campaign, Hillary Clinton did far better with WWC voters than Obama did.

Again this is the one scenario Team Obama and the Left fears the most going into 2012. They would rather go up against elitist Mitt Romney and take their chances that he will not be able to maintain that 30 point spread achieved by the GOP in 2010 with WWC and that with the right amount of MSM propaganda against the elitism and "big business resume" of Romney and convincing enough Reagan Democrats to stay with the Messiah despite a terrible economy, that Obama would be able to win a close election. That is what the $1 billion war chest is for.

So with these three key factors providing Sarah Palin with a huge advantage over Mitt Romney here is how I see the 2012 election shaping up in terms of the electoral college:

As you can see I have Palin winning but barely. If only one of these states doesn't go her way under this scenario, Obama wins.

Except for Virginia, I have Palin picking up the entire South because of a huge conservative/evangelical turnout.

I see Palin like Romney winning back Ohio and Indiana because of the economy; and like Romney I see her winning NH and Florida as well.

But one of the key differences is that I see Palin taking Missouri while I don't see Romney doing that.

And because of her strong libertarian roots, I see Palin being able to win back Colorado and Nevada (Bush won both states in 2004)while I only see Romney picking up Nevada.

What would of course be extremely helpful is if Palin could just knock off one of the "blue states" like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Michigan. And that is where Palin's popularity with WWC voters comes into play. Would she be able to "steal" one of these states from the Messiah? Based on my scenario if she could, she would be virtually home free and could even afford to lose Colorado.

And that is why I have strongly advocated that Sarah Palin pick Paul Ryan as her VP and give herself a decent chance to win Wisconsin. Yes, I know a lot of people like Alan West or Marco Rubio in Florida, but I figure if Palin cannot win Florida on her own, especially with a GOP governor in place and Obama bleeding Jewish-American votes, then she will not win.

Could Sarah Palin lose to Obama? Of course. As my scenario shows there is NOT much margin for error.

But over the next 16 or so months if I were to pay attention to one voting bloc, it would be Hispanics. As one poster noted the other day, Obama is in no danger of losing a lot of Hispanic votes to the GOP, but the real danger is that if they are not motivated to come out and vote at all.

In 2008, Obama received 67% of the Hispanic vote to 31% for McCain. In 2010 the split was 60% for the Democrats and 38% for the GOP.

Recently Obama's approvals have slipped dramatically with Hispanics. For example in the last 4 weeks of the Gallup weekly summary and for a few months before the Bin Laden killing Obama could only hit the mid-50 range with Hispanics. This is now a huge problem for Obama.

And that could make the difference in states like Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. And of course the fewer Hispanics that come out, the higher the WHITE vote as a percentage of the overall electorate will become, making it more likely that Sarah Palin would be able to eke out a narrow victory.

And of course if Sarah Palin were able to garner around 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2012 similar to what the GOP got in 2010, that would tip the balance in her direction considerably.

Finally, don't let anyone kid you that Obama is going to blow Palin out by 15-20 points and win a "Goldwater type of landslide victory." It simply is not going to happen. What again is more likely to happen is that Sarah Palin will be sworn in on January 20, 2013 as the 45th President of the United States.

Milt Romney only appears 'in front' because the American MSM FORCES him in.
He is uniformly hated by radio amateurs, Massachusetts taxpayers,
conservatives, Americans, and independents.

Proof?

In Japan and Europe, 'the ole backstabber' Romney
is NOT EVEN ON THE SCREEN.

2 posted on 06/26/2011 4:26:25 AM PDT by Diogenesis (Nothing surpasses the complexity of the human mind. - Leto II: Dar-es-Balat)

For Palin to beat Obama, she has to transform her image and the misconception that she is an idiot. This takes time. It will require a long period of strong interview and debate performances.

“finally among Roman Catholics the Democrats only got 44%’

Why did Obama get ANY RC votes in the first place?

The swing voters in swing states are the ones who decide the election and a successful GOP candidate will have to appeal to them, not just the base.

This election will be about the economy and jobs, “it’s the economy, stupid” will be the determining factor again.

4 posted on 06/26/2011 4:28:04 AM PDT by Clairity ("The United States needs to be not so much loved as it needs to be respected." -- VP Dick Cheney)

Make your case.

Last time I heard PA ballyhooed that McCain had a real shot there. He ended up losing by 10 points.

Remember the Murtha election before he died. He was supposed to be in real trouble. He won.

Fool me once shame on you; fool me twice shame on me!

Too bad, Team Romney THREW Election 2008 to Obama.

No doubt TEAM Romney will make up to Obama
for any loses due to an absent ACORN.
Team Romney works against America and the GOP on the sly.

8 posted on 06/26/2011 4:45:42 AM PDT by Diogenesis (Nothing surpasses the complexity of the human mind. - Leto II: Dar-es-Balat)

Palin will pick up at least 16 EV from

Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan.

Cheers!

9 posted on 06/26/2011 4:59:17 AM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)

I tend to agree. PA is a tough state for any Republican to win, given Philadelphia seems to have an unlimited supply of Democrat votes.

I do see two additional states which could go to Palin in your scenario, NM and IA.

In her recent interviews and speeches, Sarah Palin has shown a much improved style and presence. She has also learned to modulate her speaking voice. Sarah has been so thoroughly vetted that she is inoculated against much of what the MSM throws at her. She'd be running against the lib media as much as Obama and I think she's up for that task.

I think NM is highly dependent on the Hispanic vote and the role Susana Martinez has to play in the 2012 general campaign.

Imho, it would take Hispanics staying home in droves for Palin to win NM. But it is possible.

As for Iowa, didn’t I read it has become more Leftist in tone recently because of an influx on new citizens to the state?

Uhh ———

does not Palin need to decide to run for this analysis to have any meaning?

There are 75 reasons that I previously posted at FR to why I believe Sarah Palin is running.

Showing up at the premiere of the Undefeated in Pella, Iowa on Tuesday could be considered #76.

Susana Martinez would probably be the difference in New Mexico.

Iowa has seen a surge in Republican voter registration and I believe has a large number of Independents. I'm guessing a Tea Party backed candidate would do very well there.

Uhh ——— does not Palin need to decide to run for this analysis to have any meaning?

Unlike most of the rest of the Republican field she does not need to announce her run untill the last minute. Sara Palin has basically 100% name ID among primary voters already, and many of her fans will gladly send her money, even if she announces in November.
Why should she announce any sooner than necessary to get on the ballot, since given past experience, the moment she announces, the left will try to destroy her via lawfare.

After a dozen phone calls a week from the RNC, I finally answered it and told the caller the “Republicans don’t “get-it” and to quit calling”.

Next time the RNC calls, tell them you’re sending your contributions directly to the conservative candidate.

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