Please excuse me now while I go throw up.
Posted on 06/23/2011 11:25:30 AM PDT by techno
As many of you folks know, last week Rasmussen conducted a national poll of the GOP presidential contenders and did not include Sarah Palin in the mix. On the surface it appears that Rasmussen is not out to do Sarah Palin any political favors or might even be part of the conspiracy to sabotage her chances to win the GOP nomination next year.
Thus I think it is ironic that I may have discovered by means of another Rasmussen poll conducted last week how Scott Rasmussen may have become an unwittingly participant in providing Palin a terrific springboard to ultimate victory next year in both the primaries and the general election.
Here is the poll result I am referring to:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/83_of_gop_voters_intend_to_vote_republican_no_matter_who_s_the_nominee
In summary Rasmussen is now reporting that 83% of GOP primary voters (based on a survey of 1000 LIKELY VOTERS) are prepared to vote for the GOP nominee regardless if their #1 choice for the nomination is defeated in the primaries. And that includes 92% of Tea Party members eligible to vote in the primaries and 78% of non-Tea Party members who now claim they will support the eventual GOP nominee whoever it may be.
This poll imho holds huge political ramifications:
1)Proof again that not all polls this early in the election cycle are meaningless
2)This polls debunks the claims of MSM pollsters in bed with Obama (polling adults) that Sarah Palin would garner less than 70% of the GOP vote in a general election if she were the nominee and with that precipitate a "Goldwater-type landslide victory" for Obama and a possible loss of the House as well in 2012. In other words there is no way that Obama is going to beat Palin by 15-20 points in a head to head match-up.
3)As a follow-up the poll also found that only 7% of GOP primary voters are prepared at this time to vote for Obama if their "favorite" does not win the nomination; this poll confirms another Rasmussen poll conducted at the end of January 2011 that only 9% of GOP primary voters said they are SOMEWHAT LIKELY to vote for Obama in 2012
4)In addition the poll found that only 5% of GOP primary voters would be prepared to vote for a 3rd party candidate if their favorite did not become the nominee. The keen desire for a viable 3rd party, at least from the point of view of Republicans is simply not present. With Obama's approval numbers in the tank, his ace in the hole to win re-election (the creation of a third party to bleed votes away from the GOP nominee) just received a major setback. Sure George Soros can set up a viable 3rd party for independent voters but they are just as likely to be Independents who lean Democrat who may vote 3rd party as a protest vote against Obama's economic policies.
5)This poll result should also be a shot across the bow of anybody in the political class who is thinking about working behind the scenes to sabotage the GOP nominee next year in order to pave the way for the coronation of Jeb Bush in 2016. This poll clearly shows that GOP primary voters en masse don't care what the party hierarchy or the GOP establishment says or does (as in 2010)and that their hatred or disgust for Obama and his radical agenda transcends or overrides any other consideration.
6)If the 83% mark can be seen as a starting point for GOP support for the nominee, is it really inconceivable that over the next 16 and 1/2 months and with the traditional rallying cry behind the party's nominee that is evident during the partisan divide erupting during a general election campaign that this number could rise above 85% and even approach the 89% that McCain got from his own party in 2008?
7)Thus Tea Party members apparently are NOT sheep that are going to be led to the slaughter, and will NOT become susceptible to the traditional divide and conquer strategy of the Democrats or embrace Obama because of expected massive fear and intimidation propaganda from the Messiah's propaganda machine in 2012.
So if Obama remains weak among INDEPENDENTS due to the economy (recent polls), he will be forced to rely on maximizing the turnout of minority and progressive voters to even have a chance at re-election. But several polling analysts have pointed out because of 2010 when the Democrats lost the white working class vote to the Republicans by 30 points, Obama cannot win re-election by solely adopting this strategy, that he needs to woo back a good number of these folks to his column, which at the present time does not appear likely, again because of the poor performance of the economy.
8)7 of 9 GOP primary voters also told Rasmussen that every one of the GOP presidential contenders would do a better job than Obama. And that includes 93% of Tea Party members who believe that. Thus Obama is going to have a more difficult time to play "the not qualified card" against the GOP nominee, especially if the economy is still in the tank in 2012 or worsens. And that includes Sarah Palin.
9)This poll result thus insures the next GOP nominee will have a decent chance to beat Obama and if he or she loses it will be a close election.
10)But the key point of this poll to understand is that this result is based on a poll of LIKELY VOTERS. McCain did not lose the 2008 because Republicans did not vote for him, again 89% of Republicans did so. But a major contributing factor in losing the election were the millions of WHITE Republicans or conservatives who chose to stay home on election day prompting Timothy Noah of Slate magazine to write this shortly after the 2008 election: "The greatest favor the white race did for Obama this year may have been to stay home."
As it turned out in 2008 the white vote only represented 73.5% of the entire electorate and as we know Obama beat McCain by just over 7 percentage points in the popular vote. In contrast in 2010 whites represented 77% of the electorate and the Republicans ended up beating the Democrats by just over 7% in the popular vote.
And who was instrumental in maximizing the turnout of white voters in 2010 by endorsing candidates that motivated these folks to come out and vote? Sarah Palin.
And in 2012 who has the greater potential to maximize white turnout, Mitt Romney, moderate, who does not play well to VERY CONSERVATIVE voters, social conservatives and evangelicals (polls going back to 2007 are consistent that these folks are a political wasteland for Romney) or Sarah Palin, Reagan conservative, who speaks to the needs of all conservatives, but especially white conservatives, and has the God-given superstar ability to stoke their anger, galvanize their disgust of Obama and finally to fire them up and motivate them to go to the polls on Nov. 6, 2012?
The 2012 election will be won or lost based on the turnout of WHITE voters and especially WHITE conservative voters.
Do you really believe Romney will be able to maximize the turnout of WHITE CONSERVATIVES especially in Southern states? If you do, then vote for Romney in the primaries.
But if you come to the decision that Sarah Palin is more able or qualified to perform that task then you must vote for her in the primaries.
As I have already stated on a number of occasions no one else has a chance to win the GOP nomination. There is no chance whatsoever that any candidate in the second-tier will be able to beat both Romney and Palin in the same election cycle. That is as impossible as the Baltimore Orioles winning the pennant this season.
When Did Sarah Palin declare her candidacy for POTUS?
That's because she isn't a candidate. At some point, she may decide to run, but so far, she hasn't.
I just pray to God Palin runs...
I have no idea the real reason that Rasmussen left Sarah out of the poll but I get annoyed when they include non-declared candidates in these polls anyway. I don’t believe that it is helpful to include any non-declared candidates in these polls. It really ticks me off when they include Wrong Paul in any polls.
I wouldn’t take it personally w/o more info to go on vis a vis Rasmussens’ feelings towards Palin.
No, no, we must have Romney or Pawlenty or Huntsman or Christie or Pataki or Jeb Bush or Perry or Rubio or some other RINO no one has ever heard of yet...
“Do you really believe Romney will be able to maximize the turnout of WHITE CONSERVATIVES especially in Southern states?”
Not as much as a conservative. But it would still be better than McCain did and I believe the reason is that the election is going to be a referendum on Obama; the GOP candidate isn’t going to matter (as much) as he or she would have in another year.
There is no chance whatsoever that any candidate in the second-tier will be able to beat both Romney and Palin in the same election cycle.”
Almost true.
Perry could win the nomination.
Bottom line, the GOP nominee will be: Romney, Palin or Perry.
(The weird thing is that as of TODAY, neither Palin nor Perry are running....that only means as of TODAY....I am confident that one or the other will run, and likely win the nomination....but as of TODAY....well)
Please excuse me now while I go throw up.
The conspiracies on Sarah Palin are getting old. If she wants to get into the race, she should get in. Nobody is stopping her.
Because of how the Electoral College Math is set up for 2012, just about any of the GOP hopefuls has a good shot at winning (including Palin). No “McCain” states are going to be in serious jeopardy (though MO would be close) and the Democrats are almost certain to abandon IN and NC once it becomes obvious those states are unwinable and to spend money elsewhere. VA should return red, and I thought Allen running for his old seat would give a boost to the nominee, but maybe not as much as I thought. I’ve already covered the voting demographics from FL and how while some might think it ironic, is actually a pretty easy states for the conservative nominee to hold (especially since our convention is in Tampa).
That leaves OH and one other state. OH is going to be very tough. It’s possible (though very difficult) for the nominee to win the election and lose OH (they could take IA, NV, CO, and NM), but CO will be just as tough, if not the “ground zero” state for 2012.
If this is a 3 horse race, Obama wins easily....I love Sarah but do NOT want to see Perot pt2....we MUST vote out the only President in History to openly hate this country.
The next election can’t come soon enough! Like Ronaldus Magnus, Sarah Palin is the best prospective Republican candidate to inspire & energize the country. I work my precinct during every election cycle and I can tell you no white folks will be staying home on Election Day!
When did Marco Rubio join the ranks of the RINOs?
Amnesty
Thanks techno! This is a most awesome post!
Palin 2012
same here. When I see and hear this fool speak all I can think is, "this idiot is totally delusional."
We need someone with a Warrior mindset, not someone with a technocrat's mindset. This guy and most of the RINOs running are very weak men who deserve only our contempt. They deserve our utter contempt because they want to be seen as "civil" while the left continues destroying our Republic.
The institutions the evil left have infested for the past 70 years need to be cleansed of the evil anti-capitalist, anti-individual indoctrination. The only way our Republic can be saved is if the left is politically destroyed.
Can anyone honestly see Huntsman, Romney, or Palwenty leading such an undertaking?
“No, no, we must have Romney or Pawlenty or Huntsman or Christie or Pataki or Jeb Bush or Perry or Rubio or some other RINO no one has ever heard of yet...”
ROFL! Yeah, if we want to lose to BO big time. It’s Sarah for the win!
Well, Sarah hasn’t declared YET...........but she is still the only choice. Willard? Huntsman? Newt? NO WAY. Don’t even bother!
Right. Rasumssen did the only logical thing he could do, otherwise where do you end with potential candidates? If she runs, he’ll do another poll and we’ll see how it differs.
To me, Huntsman epitomizes the emasculated, cocktail circuit Republican. The type of spineless weasels we had all over the GOP in the 70’s and 80’s like Bob Michel and Nelson Rockefeller. They can all go to hell. There is a Conservative ascendancy in this country now and we have no time for professional losers.
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