Palin vs. Romney in light of the Huckabee announcement not to run

May 16, 2011 | techno

[techno]

In light of Mike Huckabee's announcement that he was not running in 2012, I thought it would be appropriate to compare presidential prospects of Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney in respect to gaining the nomination and how well they each might do in the general election if either one was the GOP nominee. So with that in mind here are 10 points to consider:

1) From David Bernstein:

a) Of the 28 caucuses and primaries that Mitt Romney competed in up to and including Super Tuesday in 2008 he finished worse than second in 6 races--happened to be in six of the seven Southern states in which he ran (he finished 2nd in Florida).

b)40% of the pledged delegates to the 2012 GOP convention in Tampa will come from the 13 Southern states (the 11 Dixie states and KY and OK).

c)To win the GOP nomination without the South, Romney would have to run a blue-state strategy in which he swept winner-take-all delegate primaries in the Northeast, the West Coast and the Industrial North.

d) If Romney couldn't win over Iowa's Christian conservatives in '08, when he spend millions there and McCain and Giuliani skipped the state, it's hard to see how he can do so in '12.

e)Romney finished 4th in SC with 15% of the vote.

The demographics of 2008 will have gotten worse for Romney in 2012 after Palin enters the race. In 2008, there was no first-tier Reagan conservative in the race.

2) In a Public Policy polling poll (PPP) released in mid-August 2010 72% of primary voters in Florida consider themselves as CONSERVATIVES, up from 61% in the 2008 exit polls.

Another plus for Palin over Romney, who needs Florida as a firewall to remain credible.

3)From a Public Opinion Strategies (POS) poll on Nov. 4, 2010:

52% of folks who identify themselves as part of the Tea Party movement claim they are also CONSERVATIVE EVANGELICALS.

"The largest single constituency in the electorate in the 2010 midterm elections were self-identified EVANGELICALS who comprised 29% of the vote and cast 78% of their ballots for GOP candidates."

Mitt Romney does not play well to CONSERVATIVE EVANGELICALS. That is no secret.

4)From a November 2006 Rasmussen poll

a) Half (53%) of all evangelical Christians say they would NOT consider voting for a Mormon candidate.

b) 92% of EVANGELICAL CHRISTIANS consider a candidate's beliefs and faith important when voting.

c) 78% of Republicans say that a candidate's faith is an important consideration in voting for a candidate.

I hate religious bigotry as much as anybody but these kinds of views are difficult to shift very much over time from a political standpoint.

5)From pollinsider.com

The Big 5 issues are:

a)Healthcare

b)Spending/deficit

c)Jobs/taxes

d)Immigration

e)Energy

"Romney's skeleton is healthcare..."

"...Conservatives sat 2008 out because they did not have a candidate at the top of the ticket to vote for. America is a conservative country, and it takes a conservative to win. Not only is Sarah Palin the only major candidate that is completely tuned in to public opinion on the big 5 issues, but she is also the only candidate who can put together all the necessary components to win against the $1 billion candidate."

Chalk up another positive for Palin.

http://pollinsider.com/2011/03/25/elites-way-off-on-palin-electability-part-2

6) From a Zogby poll on Obamacare Mid-Feb 2011

78% of red state voters want the law repealed entirely or in part while 56% want it repealed entirely. 65% of red staters believe Obamacare is unconstitutional.

78% of GREEN STATERS want Obamacare repealed entirely or in part and 52% want a total repeal.

60% of GREEN STATE VOTERS believe Obamacare is unconstitutional

A red state is defined as a state that did not vote for Obama in 2008 and is unlikely to do so in 2012.

A green state is a battleground state in 2012.

Palin has more credibility in both red and green states on this issue than the father of Romneycare does.

7)From The Hill Nov 30, 2010 reporting on a PPP poll of second choices:

NEWT PALIN HUCK MITT

NEWT DOESN'T RUN --- 19 31 27

HUCK DOESN'T RUN 19 34 -- 17

MITT DOESN'T RUN 14 27 23 --

PALIN DOESN'T RUN 20 -- 24 12

Palin is clearly the second choice for a plurality of Huckabee voters and not Romney or anybody else.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/131227-poll-palin-is-plan-b-for-romney-backers

8)From politicons.net

a)"Sarah Palin would win the GOP nomination if Mitt and Newt run."

b)"Palin would beat Romney if Huckabee doesn't run."

http://politicons.net/2012-republican-primary-analysis-palin-huckabee-romney-wide-open/

9)From The Root.com

"When Carter won the Presidency in 1976, WHITE VOTERS who described themselves as MODERATES made up 45% of the electorate; in 2008 the percentage of MODERATE WHITE VOTERS via exit polls put it at 32%."

A shift from moderate white voters becoming more conservative over time was not good news for Mitt Romney in 2008; it will be worse for him in 2012 as the trend even worsens.

10)White evangelical voters represent about 25% of the overall electorate. if enough of these voters stay home on election day and refuse to vote for Romney as the GOP nominee or go 3rd party, it would depress the percentage of the white votes cast (thereby increasing the percentage of minority votes cast of the electorate)or split the white vote and it would hand the election to Obama.

With Sarah Palin at the helm this scenario would not occur and is one of the primary reasons that the Obama WH and the Left have tried to destroy Sarah Palin for the past 32 and 1/2 months.

In conclusion, I believe Mitt Romney is a flawed candidate, not because of Romneycare, but simply because he, like McCain, cannot draw the conservative base out on election day; with Romney at the helm in 2012 we risk repeating the McCain scenario of 2008 in which millions of white conservatives, many in battleground states, stayed home rather than vote for McCain or voted 3rd party.

Timothy Noah of Slate Magazine right after the 2008 election summed it up the best: "The greatest favor the white race did for Obama this year may have been to stay home."

In other words the turnout of WHITE CONSERVATIVES in 2012 election will determine whether Obama gets a second term or not.

And Sarah Palin has the God-given ability to maximize that turnout.

It is what it is!

[Lee'sGhost]

So, is the bottom line here that the GOP may actually be forced to run a conservative whether it wants to or not?

Also, I’m curious, why didn’t you include Mitch Daniels in your otherwise excellent break down?

[Gargantua]

Didn't this supposed "tax" go from the oil companies directly to the citizens of Alaska?

Since when does a "tax" get taken from a business to be given to the public? I'm pretty sure I'd like to see this PDS chimp's source regarding this "tax."

They just won't give it a break, will they? Palin should win just to send all these rant-bags over the brink, turning them into babbling, drooling imbeciles.

Oh wait... that's right. How would we notice any difference?

8^D

[Gargantua]

"Also, I’m curious, why didn’t you include Mitch Daniels in your otherwise excellent break down?"

Who?

;^\

[Jim Noble]

Palin and Romney, despite appearances, are not running for the nomination of the same party.

[unseen1]

I would have to agree. Palin is running for the nomination. Mitt is trying to pretend there is no primary and is running for a general election.

[Diogenesis]

Spot on. Backstabber Romney does not respect
either the voters or primaries.

Late in October, The American Spectator's The Prowler revealed:
"Former Mitt Romney presidential campaign staffers…
have been involved in spreading anti-Palin spin to reporters, seeking to diminish her standing after the election.
'Sarah Palin is a lightweight, she won't be the first, not even the third, person people will think of when it comes to 2012,'
says one former Romney aide…
'The only serious candidate ready to challenge to lead the Republican Party is Mitt Romney.
"Some former Romney aides were behind the recent leaks to media, including CNN, that Governor Sarah Palin was a 'diva' and was going off message intentionally."

---

The Palmetto Scoop reported: "One of the first stories to hit the national airwaves was
the claim of a major internal strife between close McCain aides and the folks handling his running mate Sarah Palin."
"I’m told by very good sources that this was indeed the case and that a rift had developed, but it was between Palin’s people and the staffers brought on from the failed presidential campaign of former Gov. Mitt Romney, not McCain aides."
"The sources said nearly 80 percent of Romney’s former staff was absorbed by McCain and these individuals were responsible for what amounts to a premeditated, last-minute sabotage of Palin."
… aides loyal to Romney inside the McCain campaign, said The Scoop, reportedly saw
that Palin would be a serious contender for the Republican nomination in 2012 or 2016, which made her a threat to another presidential quest by Romney.

---

"These staffers are now out trying to finish her off ….hoping it would ingratiate themselves with Mitt Romney."

---

"Who's the Palin Leaker from the McCain Campaign?
National Review Online The publication of a Vanity Fair profile of Sarah Palin
appears to have opened old wounds in the McCain campaign.
... the source of the “Diva” leak was Nicolle Wallace’s husband."

---

"Peeking Out From the McCain Wreckage: Mitt Romney"

"Someone's got to say it: IS MITT ROMNEY RESPONSIBLE FOR OBAMA'S VICTORY?"

"Vanity: Team Romney Sabotaged Palin and Continuing to Do So?"

"Romney Supporters Trashing Palin"

"Romney advisors sniping at Palin?"

---

[kevkrom]

Romney pretty much self-destructed last week with that awful speech in Boston. Even NRO turned on him, and Team Bush has heaved him overboard in favor of Daniels.

Yeah, after that fiasco, I can't see Romney as anything other than a spoiler. Gingrich's entrance and backing of the individual mandate might be the establishment ploy to completely marginalize Romney in favor of Daniels.

Right now, I see it as Daniels vs. Palin -- if Palin decides not to run, then I'm not sure if anyone will be able to credibly challenge Daniels from the right, as I have serious doubts about Bachmann's and Cain's chances, even with a Palin endorsement.

[gakrak]

OMG, I sure hope that mitt and Sarah aren’t even considered. Neither one of them can win, IMHO. Amen

[Dr. Sivana]

Also, I’m curious, why didn’t you include Mitch Daniels in your otherwise excellent break down?

Daniels is still in low single digits in most polls. He could eventually be a beneficiary of a Romney collapse, but Techno was analyzing the effect of a Huck withdrawal. Mr. "Truce on social issues" does not, and is not likely to be the beneficiary of many Huckabee supporters (notwithstanding the PP defunding).

[techno]

I wanted to keep the focus on Mitt and Sarah. Until further notice they are still the two main characters in this drama.

I’m so amazed that more people don’t see it.

[Daisyjane69]

I believe that the Alaska state constitution REQUIRES that the natural resources of the state are developed to the advantage & financial gain of Alaska residents.

I’m only sorry that the Utah state constitution doesn’t include similar language.

Instead, we are being threatened with yet another federal land grab intended to take our natural resources off the market. First Clinton, second (inaction from Bush who didn’t reverse the EO) and now Obama. meh

Palin was enforcing her state’s constitution.

[DJ MacWoW]

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[Dr. Sivana]

I wanted to keep the focus on Mitt and Sarah. Until further notice they are still the two main characters in this drama.

I believe that Romney is long finished. He has no upside potential. As of now, the nomination is Palin's if she wants it. There will be an anti-Palin. That anti-Palin will get the bulk of present Romney supporters.While Romney could still New Hampshire as things stand, he'll get zip-nada-zilch in the south, low teens in the heartland, and high teens in the west (except heavy Mormon states like Utah and Idaho).

Palin bombs in the northeast, scores wins in the south, performs solid in non-Mormon mountain states (Colorado, Arizona) and will pull Reagan Democrats to big wins in midwest.

As of now, if Daniels gets a Christie endorsement, I believe that he will ultimately displace Romney in the northeast. Pawlenty seems to be running for VP, as one does not back into the nomination at this level.

I have NO idea of what Gingrich is up to. He can't be VP, he won't break 10% in any state outside maybe Georgia. I could see Romney as Sec. of Commerce (keep friends close, enemies closer) in a Palin admin., Santorum at HHS (ideal fit).

Huck would probably accept VP slot from anti-Palin nominee (Daniels or whoever)

[ckilmer]

both romney and gingrich self destructed. romney with health care speach and gingrich with his support for individual mandate. 28 mostly conservative states are sueing the federal government over the individual mandate.

with huckabee bowing out...

the republican nomination is Palin’s for the taking—if she wants it. There is just no one else even close to her.

[ckilmer]

both romney and gingrich self destructed. romney with health care speach and gingrich with his support for individual mandate. 28 mostly conservative states are sueing the federal government over the individual mandate.

with huckabee bowing out...

the republican nomination is Palin’s for the taking—if she wants it. There is just no one else even close to her.

[Lakeshark]

You forgot, she fed them to her children..........

[LJM]

These two articles may help answer your question.

http://tinyurl.com/3e9m7xf (Part 1)

http://tinyurl.com/3qpjjjn (Part 2)

[kevkrom]

I have NO idea of what Gingrich is up to.

The only thing that makes sense to me is to squeeze out Romney so that Daniels can be the establishment flag-bearer.

Thing is, I've got no real animosity to Daniels -- I just think he's not what the country needs right now. We need someone dynamic and aggressive, not just quiet competence.

A Palin/Daniels ticket might actually make some sense, however. It would repair some of the establishment vs. tea-party divisions sure to come up in the primary. Daniels has a solid resume. If I thought that Indiana would even be in play for Obama to get again, that would be the clincher -- but if it is in 2012, then the election's already lost.

[Lee'sGhost]

Thanks. I get that. It just seems relevant to me in the sense that I think he is the choice of the GOP insiders. They are pulling strings and levers on his behalf as hard as they can. I guess they learned nothing from running McCain.

[PhilCollins]

Since 1900, only one Republican became president by defeating an incumbent. That was Ronald Reagan, in 1980. He had these four traits that might have helped him:
1. He was conservative.
2. He was a governor.
3. He sought the nomination, in a previous election.
4. He was from the West.

These Republicans, who might run, have at least three of those four traits: Sarah Palin, Dirk Kempthorne, and Mitt Romney. I hope that all of them will run, and I hope that Tim Pawlenty and Buddy Roemer will run. I hope that at least four of them will continue campaigning until the convention. If that happens, no one will get the majority of the delegates before the convention. The convention will be more suspenseful and exciting, causing more people to watch and hear the great republican ideas. That happened in 1980, and Reagan won about 40 states.