“Vote for me.
I was brainwashed.”
Posted on 05/16/2011 3:13:30 AM PDT by techno
In light of Mike Huckabee's announcement that he was not running in 2012, I thought it would be appropriate to compare presidential prospects of Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney in respect to gaining the nomination and how well they each might do in the general election if either one was the GOP nominee. So with that in mind here are 10 points to consider:
1) From David Bernstein:
a) Of the 28 caucuses and primaries that Mitt Romney competed in up to and including Super Tuesday in 2008 he finished worse than second in 6 races--happened to be in six of the seven Southern states in which he ran (he finished 2nd in Florida).
b)40% of the pledged delegates to the 2012 GOP convention in Tampa will come from the 13 Southern states (the 11 Dixie states and KY and OK).
c)To win the GOP nomination without the South, Romney would have to run a blue-state strategy in which he swept winner-take-all delegate primaries in the Northeast, the West Coast and the Industrial North.
d) If Romney couldn't win over Iowa's Christian conservatives in '08, when he spend millions there and McCain and Giuliani skipped the state, it's hard to see how he can do so in '12.
e)Romney finished 4th in SC with 15% of the vote.
The demographics of 2008 will have gotten worse for Romney in 2012 after Palin enters the race. In 2008, there was no first-tier Reagan conservative in the race.
2) In a Public Policy polling poll (PPP) released in mid-August 2010 72% of primary voters in Florida consider themselves as CONSERVATIVES, up from 61% in the 2008 exit polls.
Another plus for Palin over Romney, who needs Florida as a firewall to remain credible.
3)From a Public Opinion Strategies (POS) poll on Nov. 4, 2010:
52% of folks who identify themselves as part of the Tea Party movement claim they are also CONSERVATIVE EVANGELICALS.
"The largest single constituency in the electorate in the 2010 midterm elections were self-identified EVANGELICALS who comprised 29% of the vote and cast 78% of their ballots for GOP candidates."
Mitt Romney does not play well to CONSERVATIVE EVANGELICALS. That is no secret.
4)From a November 2006 Rasmussen poll
a) Half (53%) of all evangelical Christians say they would NOT consider voting for a Mormon candidate.
b) 92% of EVANGELICAL CHRISTIANS consider a candidate's beliefs and faith important when voting.
c) 78% of Republicans say that a candidate's faith is an important consideration in voting for a candidate.
I hate religious bigotry as much as anybody but these kinds of views are difficult to shift very much over time from a political standpoint.
5)From pollinsider.com
The Big 5 issues are:
a)Healthcare
b)Spending/deficit
c)Jobs/taxes
d)Immigration
e)Energy
"Romney's skeleton is healthcare..."
"...Conservatives sat 2008 out because they did not have a candidate at the top of the ticket to vote for. America is a conservative country, and it takes a conservative to win. Not only is Sarah Palin the only major candidate that is completely tuned in to public opinion on the big 5 issues, but she is also the only candidate who can put together all the necessary components to win against the $1 billion candidate."
Chalk up another positive for Palin.
http://pollinsider.com/2011/03/25/elites-way-off-on-palin-electability-part-2
6) From a Zogby poll on Obamacare Mid-Feb 2011
78% of red state voters want the law repealed entirely or in part while 56% want it repealed entirely. 65% of red staters believe Obamacare is unconstitutional.
78% of GREEN STATERS want Obamacare repealed entirely or in part and 52% want a total repeal.
60% of GREEN STATE VOTERS believe Obamacare is unconstitutional
A red state is defined as a state that did not vote for Obama in 2008 and is unlikely to do so in 2012.
A green state is a battleground state in 2012.
Palin has more credibility in both red and green states on this issue than the father of Romneycare does.
7)From The Hill Nov 30, 2010 reporting on a PPP poll of second choices:
NEWT PALIN HUCK MITT
NEWT DOESN'T RUN --- 19 31 27
HUCK DOESN'T RUN 19 34 -- 17
MITT DOESN'T RUN 14 27 23 --
PALIN DOESN'T RUN 20 -- 24 12
Palin is clearly the second choice for a plurality of Huckabee voters and not Romney or anybody else.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/131227-poll-palin-is-plan-b-for-romney-backers
8)From politicons.net
a)"Sarah Palin would win the GOP nomination if Mitt and Newt run."
b)"Palin would beat Romney if Huckabee doesn't run."
http://politicons.net/2012-republican-primary-analysis-palin-huckabee-romney-wide-open/
9)From The Root.com
"When Carter won the Presidency in 1976, WHITE VOTERS who described themselves as MODERATES made up 45% of the electorate; in 2008 the percentage of MODERATE WHITE VOTERS via exit polls put it at 32%."
A shift from moderate white voters becoming more conservative over time was not good news for Mitt Romney in 2008; it will be worse for him in 2012 as the trend even worsens.
10)White evangelical voters represent about 25% of the overall electorate. if enough of these voters stay home on election day and refuse to vote for Romney as the GOP nominee or go 3rd party, it would depress the percentage of the white votes cast (thereby increasing the percentage of minority votes cast of the electorate)or split the white vote and it would hand the election to Obama.
With Sarah Palin at the helm this scenario would not occur and is one of the primary reasons that the Obama WH and the Left have tried to destroy Sarah Palin for the past 32 and 1/2 months.
In conclusion, I believe Mitt Romney is a flawed candidate, not because of Romneycare, but simply because he, like McCain, cannot draw the conservative base out on election day; with Romney at the helm in 2012 we risk repeating the McCain scenario of 2008 in which millions of white conservatives, many in battleground states, stayed home rather than vote for McCain or voted 3rd party.
Timothy Noah of Slate Magazine right after the 2008 election summed it up the best: "The greatest favor the white race did for Obama this year may have been to stay home."
In other words the turnout of WHITE CONSERVATIVES in 2012 election will determine whether Obama gets a second term or not.
And Sarah Palin has the God-given ability to maximize that turnout.
It is what it is!
Romney pretty much self-destructed last week with that awful speech in Boston. Even NRO turned on him, and Team Bush has heaved him overboard in favor of Daniels.
But as Shakespeare wrote Mitt Romney may not “want to go gently into the night.”
He can self-finance and he has already decided to obtain the nomination using “a last-man standing strategy” even if it means taking the nomination all the way to the convention and spending $100 million to do so.
Sorry, Newt. You're done for now if you weren't already.
Sorry, Newt. You're done for now if you weren't already.
I had posted that we needed to give Newt a fair hearing. I think I heard enough when I read that he called resistance to Obamacare as “right wing social engineering.”
Just damn.
Just a doleful thought here, though. The situation may be so dire that there is no “fix”. It may well be that collapse is inevitable.
Like Albert Speer was to Hitler....
Romney is the Architect....the Architect of Obamacare.
What’s this news about Governor Palin raising taxes on oil companies in Alaska, and working with liberal Democrats while she was governor.
I think people will be surprised this time next year when the GOP front runner is crowned. It will probably be no one anyone suspects (no, it won’t be Palin as much as I like her) and, God willing, that candidate will unite the various factions and wipe Obama off the map.
It will be one of two people:
Romney or Palin
Huckabee has already left, Newt is on his way down and Trump is probably going 3rd party.
And none of the dark horses have any shot whatsoever.
If Huckabee couldn’t beat both Palin and Romney in the same election cycle. nobody else can either.
“Vote for me.
I was brainwashed.”
As I’ve been saying, Romney is not going to win the GOP nomination. His ego will prompt a run but will he do like Huckabee and realize that he won’t win the GOP nomination?
RomneyCare, Bain Capital forcing people out of jobs, his LDS religion (yes folks, it is what it is - a Mormon will not be elected to POTUS - people overlooked Obama’s ties to the Muslim religion because they thought it would be cool to have the first black prez - People have told me this in private).
Romney can’t win in the South which is a Republican stronghold. So Romney will, once again, waste his time and money if he runs in 2012.
First, Romney makes TARP, gay marriage, and Obamacare moot.
That scintillating little piece was bumped from the headlines by "Palin Boils And Eats Eskimo Babies After Clubbing Them With Baby Harp Seals."
How on earth did you miss that one?!
;-\
You can call it raising taxes or you can call it adding a fee, but either way, I call it "renegotiating". The oil companies were getting a sweet deal because of kickbacks to the CBC (Corrupt Bastards Club), which was composed largely of Republicans. The liberal RATs loved her for going after her own, and raising taxes. That's how they saw it. I saw it as getting rid of corruption and renegotiating on behalf of the PEOPLE.
Hate to burst your bubble, but, yes, it will be Palin, despite how I can't stand that woman.
8^D
Now that is a comment that you don’t see everyday: a person who doesn’t like Palin but thinks she is going to get the nomination.
That is a very small club to belong to.
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