Sarah Palin in the lead in PPP Nov. national poll of contenders

public policy polling ^ | November 30, 2010 | techno

[techno]

First to clarify three points:

1)PPP did not do national poll of the 2012 GOP contenders in October due to the midterm election. 2)In September PPP did a poll but did not include a breakdown by age brackets. 3)So my comparisons (in brackets) are based on:

September: overall, ideology, gender August: age brackets

Cat NEWT HUCK PALIN MITT PAUL S/ELSE/UNDEC OVER 19(18)16(21) 21(17)18(22) 5(6) 12(16) LIBS -(11) -(21) - (5) 26(16) -(5) 74 (42) MOD 10(9) 20(22) 13(7) 25(33) 4(4) 20 (22) CONS 23(22)14(21) 24(21)15(18) 6(6) 8 (12) WOM 16(16)20(26) 19(13)20(25) 4(4) 13 (16) MEN 23(20)11(18) 23(20)16(19) 6(6) 11 (18) 18-2936(12)29(41) 29(24) -(12) -(12) -- -- 30-4520(20)14(31) 16(22)23(26) 9 (4) 9 (11) 46-6417(22)14(21) 21(21)18(26) 6 (4) 17 (7) 65+ 17(22)17(16) 23(21)19(21) 1 (5) 9 (16)

COMMENTS AND CONCLUSIONS:

1)The November poll was conducted between Nov 19-21 and also including results for Daniels, Pawlenty and Thune; neither the August or September polls did.

2)With 3 more candidates in the mix Palin increased her overall total by 4 points from Sept to Nov while both Huck and Mitt dropped.

3)Although Mitt still leads with Moderates (25%) he has lost 8 points since September.

4)But in the all-important CONSERVATIVE category which makes up roughly 70% of Republican members, Palin leads Newt by 1 point (24% to 23%) but Mitt has dropped back from 18% to 15% over the last 60 days.

5)Romney has also fallen 5 points among women and 3 points among men, and also fallen 8 points among those 46-64 and 2 points among seniors.

6)But even worse were the losses suffered by Mike Huckabee across the board:

Overall -5 Conservatives -7 Women -6 Men -7 30-45 -17 46-64 -7

7)As for Newt he finished 2nd to Palin in the overall and basically held his own although he did fall 5 points in both the 46-64 and 65+ categories from August.

8)As for Sarah Palin she made key increases across the board:

Overall +4 Moderates +6 Conservatives +3 Women +6 Men +3 65+ +2

And this is the first time in any national poll to my knowledge that Palin has led her opponents in both the 46-64 category and the 65+ category.

And again this cannot be emphasized enough. Palin made these gains in "the horserace" despite 3 new candidates being added to the mix.

And PPP also conducted a poll of the respondents to who their 2nd choice would be if their first choice was not avaiable. Here Palin comes up smelling like roses as well where she is the leading votegetter in among males, the 46-64 age category and the 65+ age category, tied for first in the overall category and the 30-45 age category and second place for conservatives and women as their second choice.

PPP also found that 34% of Huckabee supporters would go over to Palin if Huck was not on the ballot.

And among conservative Republicans voting in the GOP primary Palin's favorable is 78% and even her favorable with moderates stands at 44% only 6 points behind Romney.

Sarah Palin is definitely in the catbird seat now and again I cannot emphasize the significance of Palin leading the other candidates among older folks. That was always her weakness in national polls.

[MattinNJ]

IMHO, Romney is DOA because of Romneycare. Thune and Pawlenty are DOA-they are extremely boring and will not gain traction. Newt will be formidable but the commercial with Pelosi on global warming will haunt him. Huck will only serve to split the Socon vote-I hold him responsible for knocking out Fred Thompson.

Look for a dark horse to emerge out of Indiana-either Pence or Daniels.

I prefer Palin and/or Pence in the interests of full disclosure. My personal preference is Palin but I think Pence is more electable-IMHO.

[ari-freedom]

“3)Although Mitt still leads with Moderates (25%) he has lost 8 points since September. “

Even moderates don’t want Romneycare and its individual mandates. He can’t spin out of that one.

[SC_Pete]

What scares the daylights out of liberals is her threat to the women’s vote. If she can hold that advantage, she could kill the RATS for a generation.

[t-dude]

oh...let me be the first to say it...UNELECTABLE!

LOL

I can’t wait until election time to watch their heads explode! This is going to be fun!

[Lazlo in PA]

This is all fine. I want to start seeing Obummer match up polling with some upper tier Rats.

This is far from out of the realm of possibility with his current poll numbers and the state of the country. Time to make Obummer look bad. I bet Hitlery out polls him.

[DemonDeac]

Mitt is a spineless god awful hypocrite who makes Zero look genuine.

[t-dude]

Huck will only serve to split the Socon vote-I hold him responsible for knocking out Fred Thompson.

I agree 100%.

I am in Iowa, and the Huckster still has a spell on the evangelicals here. You can't talk to them, they are beyond any reasoning. Dog torture? Mass murder? State paid college for illegals? ... but he says "God Bless!"

I will never understand how such good decent people (some in my own family) can fall for such an obvious charlatan.

So this is my concern. I am behind Sarah all the way but I could see her really struggling in Iowa with all the evangelicals going to the Huckster.

Unless some more of the over 1100 criminals he got released acts up and kills or rapes someone...but as I've stated, that doesn't really phase his supporters.

[Candor7]

Sarah can win every poll every devised, but the GOP country club Republicans will not fund her, nor will they even let her get air time, same as they did with Duncan Hunter.

Sarah will have to fight for every edge she gets, and we should realize early that we must step up early, find her, and keep giing her the bully pulpit of the peoples candidate. The GOP will try to sadle us with another McCain like RINO and try to ride the conservative wave like the parasites they are.

Boener and Cantor are aready on their knees for Obama on Health Care repeal.They too choose to ignore the message of November, and have taken the spin on the election produced by the left.They will need to be punished at the polls and in the press. Our new Congressmen and Senators will soon need to speak up against Boener and Cantor.Let the battle to restore our nation and its constitution begin!

[techno]

We all know Sarah starts off in 2nd place in Iowa even before she goes there in earnest as a Presidential candidate.

[onthelookout777]

Article:

[”Sarah Palin’s Alaska” Ratings Rise]

11/30/2010 by James Hibberd

... Ratings for the politican’s Alaska-based reality show grew for her third episode, reversing course after dropping sharply last week.

Sarah Palin’s Alaska delivered 3.5 million viewers Sunday night, rising 17% at the conclusion of the holiday weekend.

Normally when ratings go down double digits for a second episode, the third outing generally falls at least a little, but not in this case...

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/blogs/live-feed/surprise-sarah-palins-ratings-rise-54830

(I think the show debuted with around 5 million viewers.)

[traditional1]

Calling Pissant.....pick up the House Phone.....

[excopconservative]

Palin +6 with moderates +6 with women, +3 with conservatives, +3 with men. Hmmm. Seems like a correlation there. This is what scares hell out of the dems. She is making inroads into the women’s vote, a core democrat constituency. Once she has the nomination and women know that a woman could become president, the bottom might fall out for the dems. A shift of 5 or 6 points in women voters would make a landslide.

Check out her Baton Rouge book signing to see women young and old reacting to Sarah. http://www.wbrz.com/player/?video_id=4902&categories=58

[ebshumidors]

And this was on Free HBO weekend!

[excopconservative]

Sarah can win every poll every devised, but the GOP country club Republicans will not fund her, nor will they even let her get air time, same as they did with Duncan Hunter.

---

Yes, the establishment Republicans don’t like her, but when she comes into the primary with more support than anyone else, they will be committing suicide by doing anything that doesn’t give her a shot. Gov. Palin subscribes to the creed of the American pioneers who believed that if you don’t get your way, it’s your own damn fault. She will not allow herself to be closed down by the closed-minded good ole boys.

[9YearLurker]

That’s what’s killing The Establishment—they can’t control her airtime! She’s got them beat on that through and through.

Not only is she ahead with Twitter and FaceBook and Fox News and SPA and book publishing and Internet web sites and MSM coverage and the top talk radio hosts, but she’s coordinated them far more than anyone else. All her appearances are available on Palintv, and she can crosspromote on all her various platforms.

Then, to top it all off—she’s more charismatic and consequential than anyone The Establishment has once she appears on whatever media outlet.

[Candor7]

Agreed, ,but Palin will be treated like an adversary by the RNC/GOP, and they will push a lesser candidate, and go itio the GOP convention with their little coutry club ducks all in a row.

Sarah needs to bring them to battle long befor the convention and put them on their heels as a matter of national interest.It is not politics as usual as the GOP wants all of America to believe. The nation is in a state of political and economic crisis. Social crisis is not far behind.Sarah will be running in the middle of that crisis.

So it will be a difficult fight, but I believe Sarah can prevail, even if she must run as an independant candidate.

[9YearLurker]

So we need Huck and Newt to stay on the sidelines to consolidate the conservative vote behind Palin—for the win.

[9YearLurker]

Agreed, it’s going to be vicious—but I think she’s ready to take them on.

[SC_Pete]

We need a leader-someone to drag the establishment GOP and RINOS to the appropriate positions. The GOP needs to fight for the country, not their next election.