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Larry Sabato Says Unpredictable “Coattail Effect” Could Put GOP over the Top in U.S. Senate – Video
Freedom's Lighthouse ^ | October 29, 2010 | Brian

Posted on 10/29/2010 3:10:20 PM PDT by Federalist Patriot

Here is video of a great interview with University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato on Fox Business Network, where he discussed the upcoming Midterm Elections. Sabato shared his final “Crystal Ball” predictions that the GOP will retake control of the House with a 55-seat net gain, and will gain 8-seats in the Senate – two short of what is needed for control there.

But Sabato also said he believes the final margin in the House will likely be larger than the 55-seats he has predicted, and holds open the possibility the Republicans could take control of the U.S. Senate as well. He pointed out that the last six times the House has changed party control, the Senate has flipped as well. Sabato explained that this often happens because of what he called the “Coattail Effect”:

“I have to rely on the data. The data do not say that (a GOP takeover of the Senate) right now – they do not predict a Republican takeover. But see, what happens on Election Day is you have this factor called “Coattail” that cannot be predicted in advance. And so sometimes, people had intended to vote for a Democrat for Senate, but their adrenalin is pumping – they are going in there to send a message to Obama – they are voting for the Republican candidate for House, and then they say “What the heck – I’m going to vote Republican for these other offices too.” That’s what happens with “Coattail.”"

That could make the difference in places like West Virginia, Washington – and even in Connecticut and Delaware. It will be interesting to see if there is a large “Coattail Effect” on November 2.

(Excerpt) Read more at freedomslighthouse.net ...


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: coattail; midterm; sabato; senate
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1 posted on 10/29/2010 3:10:28 PM PDT by Federalist Patriot
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To: Federalist Patriot

Somebody is doing a pre-emptive covering of his backside...


2 posted on 10/29/2010 3:11:56 PM PDT by Galactic Overlord-In-Chief (Our Joe Wilson can take the Dems' Joe Wilson any day of the week)
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To: Federalist Patriot
But Sabato also said he believes the final margin in the House will likely be larger than the 55-seats he has predicted,

Huh????? Then how is his prediction a prediction?????

3 posted on 10/29/2010 3:12:47 PM PDT by Opinionated Blowhard
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To: Federalist Patriot

iirc, on Fox News this morning there was a poll cited that said that 65% of Americans would like to see EVERYONE in Congress, both houses, changed.


4 posted on 10/29/2010 3:13:47 PM PDT by Judith Anne (Holy Mary, Mother of God, please pray for us sinners now and at the hour of our death.)
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To: Federalist Patriot

He might just as well said, “I have no clue how many seats Republicans will pick up.”


5 posted on 10/29/2010 3:21:15 PM PDT by savedbygrace (But God.)
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To: Federalist Patriot
Based on polling, the senate will not change hands but I believe democrats are so despirited that many of the one's who answered to poll for the democrat candidates won't even bother to vote.

I think the day after 11/2 is going to be a bitter day for leftist traitors.

I know, from my lips....

6 posted on 10/29/2010 3:21:40 PM PDT by muir_redwoods (Obama. Chauncey Gardiner without the homburg.)
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To: Federalist Patriot

The professor is a Democrat and very conservative in his prognostications, which means the GOP will probably gain 70-100 seats in the house and win the senate.


7 posted on 10/29/2010 3:23:18 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Every decent man is ashamed of the government he lives under. ~Mencken)
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To: Federalist Patriot

Coattail effect? Whose coattails are the Tea Party candidates and Republicans riding on? If he wants to see a REAL coattail effect, jest wait for two more years and we’ll see hoe many Republicans ride in on Sarah’s coattails.


8 posted on 10/29/2010 3:25:25 PM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (Islam is the religion of Satan and Mohammed was his minion.)
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To: Galactic Overlord-In-Chief
Somebody is doing a pre-emptive covering of his backside...

Ain't that the truth.

9 posted on 10/29/2010 3:26:25 PM PDT by OldPossum
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To: savedbygrace

probably not thinking clearly after O’Reilly smacked him around the other night...


10 posted on 10/29/2010 3:27:31 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: Federalist Patriot

It is the “dam bursting” effect, not the coattail effect, larry.


11 posted on 10/29/2010 3:27:48 PM PDT by Andy from Chapel Hill
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To: Galactic Overlord-In-Chief
Sabato has seen internal polls for Democrats ~ he's usually thought of as their buddy, so the staffers pass them along to him hoping for some free advice.

Larry probably told them their guy should just drop out and save the Democrats money for 2012 ~ 'cause they are going to really need it.

Larry also had his cage rattled with Christine O'Donnell's latest poll numbers ~ as did Christine, and, no doubt as did Chris Coons.

NOTE: Coons Campaign Tag ~ gerbil animals speedos suits

12 posted on 10/29/2010 3:30:13 PM PDT by muawiyah ("GIT OUT THE WAY" The Republicans are coming)
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To: Federalist Patriot
Larry is a fraud and no pollster.

He is vile low life Dem party operative.

He went around peddling that phony Macca scam on every TV and radio in town and worked every poll scam to get Jim Webbs and hide the fact he was on Webbs’s payroll the entire time.

13 posted on 10/29/2010 3:31:45 PM PDT by ncalburt (Get Even on Election Day)
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To: Judith Anne
on Fox News this morning there was a poll cited that said that 65% of Americans would like to see EVERYONE in Congress, both houses, changed.

And THAT is the Achilles heel of the "Republican wave" theory.

The People just got done firing those guys, and here they are, back again, with their sh*t eating grins and their stupid "miss me yet" slogans.

Of course, we have to elect them to stop the bleeding, I understand that.

But, "miss us yet?" - not a snowball's chance in hell.

Except for the tea party candidates, most of these miscreants aren't worth a damn. And the People know it.

So, GOP majority? Of course, it's a necessity.

But after that, we've got a Republic to save - and you Republicans in Congress? You're next!

14 posted on 10/29/2010 3:32:10 PM PDT by Jim Noble (It's the tyranny, stupid!)
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To: Opinionated Blowhard
Huh????? Then how is his prediction a prediction?????

What he's saying is that the math allows him to predict a 55 seat gain for the GOP, but he believes that the validated methodology he's using understates what experience tells him will really happen. That's my position as well. There are several effects that by definition cannot be modeled mathematically, and they are going to be bigger factors this year than usual. Unmodeled effects include the coattail effect mentioned above, the time zone effect, where the results from polls that have closed with affect voters further west (the Dems tried this with the Florida Panhandle in the Bush v. Gore election), and the level of fraud. I won't go into the rest of the discussion, but the point is that honest pollsters know that this year is going to be worth watching IF FREEPERS AND OTHER REAL AMERICANS VOTE AND DON'T STAY HOME OUT OF FALSE CONFIDENCE!

15 posted on 10/29/2010 3:32:57 PM PDT by Pollster1 (Natural born citizen of the USA, with the birth certificate to prove it)
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To: Blood of Tyrants
jest wait for two more years and we’ll see hoe many Republicans ride in on Sarah’s coattails.

You betcha.

16 posted on 10/29/2010 3:33:18 PM PDT by Jim Noble (It's the tyranny, stupid!)
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To: Opinionated Blowhard

“Then how is his prediction a prediction?????”

He’s like the weatherman hedging his bets: “My instruments and models tell me to expect a slight drizzle, but my gut tells me it will be sunshine and blue skies all day.” No matter what happens, you can never accuse him of being wrong. The marvel is that his students each pay thousands a semester in tuition just to hear this nonsense.


17 posted on 10/29/2010 3:56:51 PM PDT by DrC
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To: muir_redwoods

I am taking Wednesday off from work to celebrate. I intend to monitor races and party thru Tuesday night.


18 posted on 10/29/2010 4:19:52 PM PDT by mwl8787
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To: Opinionated Blowhard

“55” seems to be the safe bet among prognosticators now. Anything beyond that is gilding the lily. Anything less would be cast as a losing day for the Republicans, even tho it’s hard to imagine they won’t take the House... now it’s all about the margin.


19 posted on 10/29/2010 4:24:07 PM PDT by EDINVA
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To: Federalist Patriot
An unknown dynamic in the current is just how much has the president, this Democrat leadership cost the party in terms of party affiliation. I have to believe there has been a movement away from the Democrat Party to at least Independent if not Republican. If that movement has been significant then all the polling models will not accurately reflect the balance between D,R and I, which may result in over-polling Dems.
May be off base, just a thought.
20 posted on 10/29/2010 4:51:39 PM PDT by gov_bean_ counter ( Sarah Palin - For such a time as this...)
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