Posted on 10/29/2010 3:10:20 PM PDT by Federalist Patriot
Here is video of a great interview with University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato on Fox Business Network, where he discussed the upcoming Midterm Elections. Sabato shared his final “Crystal Ball” predictions that the GOP will retake control of the House with a 55-seat net gain, and will gain 8-seats in the Senate – two short of what is needed for control there.
But Sabato also said he believes the final margin in the House will likely be larger than the 55-seats he has predicted, and holds open the possibility the Republicans could take control of the U.S. Senate as well. He pointed out that the last six times the House has changed party control, the Senate has flipped as well. Sabato explained that this often happens because of what he called the “Coattail Effect”:
“I have to rely on the data. The data do not say that (a GOP takeover of the Senate) right now – they do not predict a Republican takeover. But see, what happens on Election Day is you have this factor called “Coattail” that cannot be predicted in advance. And so sometimes, people had intended to vote for a Democrat for Senate, but their adrenalin is pumping – they are going in there to send a message to Obama – they are voting for the Republican candidate for House, and then they say “What the heck – I’m going to vote Republican for these other offices too.” That’s what happens with “Coattail.”"
That could make the difference in places like West Virginia, Washington – and even in Connecticut and Delaware. It will be interesting to see if there is a large “Coattail Effect” on November 2.
(Excerpt) Read more at freedomslighthouse.net ...
Somebody is doing a pre-emptive covering of his backside...
Huh????? Then how is his prediction a prediction?????
iirc, on Fox News this morning there was a poll cited that said that 65% of Americans would like to see EVERYONE in Congress, both houses, changed.
He might just as well said, “I have no clue how many seats Republicans will pick up.”
I think the day after 11/2 is going to be a bitter day for leftist traitors.
I know, from my lips....
The professor is a Democrat and very conservative in his prognostications, which means the GOP will probably gain 70-100 seats in the house and win the senate.
Coattail effect? Whose coattails are the Tea Party candidates and Republicans riding on? If he wants to see a REAL coattail effect, jest wait for two more years and we’ll see hoe many Republicans ride in on Sarah’s coattails.
Ain't that the truth.
probably not thinking clearly after O’Reilly smacked him around the other night...
It is the “dam bursting” effect, not the coattail effect, larry.
Larry probably told them their guy should just drop out and save the Democrats money for 2012 ~ 'cause they are going to really need it.
Larry also had his cage rattled with Christine O'Donnell's latest poll numbers ~ as did Christine, and, no doubt as did Chris Coons.
NOTE: Coons Campaign Tag ~ gerbil animals speedos suits
He is vile low life Dem party operative.
He went around peddling that phony Macca scam on every TV and radio in town and worked every poll scam to get Jim Webbs and hide the fact he was on Webbs’s payroll the entire time.
And THAT is the Achilles heel of the "Republican wave" theory.
The People just got done firing those guys, and here they are, back again, with their sh*t eating grins and their stupid "miss me yet" slogans.
Of course, we have to elect them to stop the bleeding, I understand that.
But, "miss us yet?" - not a snowball's chance in hell.
Except for the tea party candidates, most of these miscreants aren't worth a damn. And the People know it.
So, GOP majority? Of course, it's a necessity.
But after that, we've got a Republic to save - and you Republicans in Congress? You're next!
What he's saying is that the math allows him to predict a 55 seat gain for the GOP, but he believes that the validated methodology he's using understates what experience tells him will really happen. That's my position as well. There are several effects that by definition cannot be modeled mathematically, and they are going to be bigger factors this year than usual. Unmodeled effects include the coattail effect mentioned above, the time zone effect, where the results from polls that have closed with affect voters further west (the Dems tried this with the Florida Panhandle in the Bush v. Gore election), and the level of fraud. I won't go into the rest of the discussion, but the point is that honest pollsters know that this year is going to be worth watching IF FREEPERS AND OTHER REAL AMERICANS VOTE AND DON'T STAY HOME OUT OF FALSE CONFIDENCE!
You betcha.
“Then how is his prediction a prediction?????”
He’s like the weatherman hedging his bets: “My instruments and models tell me to expect a slight drizzle, but my gut tells me it will be sunshine and blue skies all day.” No matter what happens, you can never accuse him of being wrong. The marvel is that his students each pay thousands a semester in tuition just to hear this nonsense.
I am taking Wednesday off from work to celebrate. I intend to monitor races and party thru Tuesday night.
“55” seems to be the safe bet among prognosticators now. Anything beyond that is gilding the lily. Anything less would be cast as a losing day for the Republicans, even tho it’s hard to imagine they won’t take the House... now it’s all about the margin.
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