Posted on 10/26/2010 3:25:39 PM PDT by truthfreedom
I don’t understand your point.
All we’ve been seeing over the last few days nationally is story after story of how the Republicans are voting and the Democrats aren’t.
It is true that we haven’t had a poll in 12 days. The last poll was the Rasmussen, and that was at 11 points.
Since then, Christine has had 2 debates, where she battled hard against a Yale Lawyer on Constitutional Law. Certainly she did not fail there to those who were paying attention.
Clearly, she’s not the crazy idiot that MSNBC thinks she is.
That is sinking in.
If the people of Delaware approve of Obama, and are enthusiastic about more Obama-style goverment, Coons will win.
If the people of Delaware disapprove of Obama, and are enthusiastic about stopping him in his tracks, Christine will win.
She has stayed on message, run a professional campaign, and will win - because the Republicans are itching to stop Obama, and the Democrats are not itching for more Obama, to anywhere near the same extent.
I’m not doubting what you’re saying. You’re input is based on what you’re seeing. But there are always these people who post some blog entry somewhere that is clearly based on unsubstantiated rumors and wishes. Opinion is one thing. Passing off garbage as fact is annoying. It is not directed at anyone here in particular but just an observation that I saw in 2008 as well.
The country is a big place, what are the obomunist’s local approval ratings?
This is a very good point. They can't help themselves.
Still, I think COD is pretty tarred. Even a great candidate would have a hard time being the focus of millions upon millions of dollars of attack ads and scorn from the entire media and intellectual establishment.
She's handled herself well. I admire her. O'Donnell is a hell of a lot tougher than me or most people in this country. But political realities are what they are. I don't think she ever had any chance in Delaware. Never did, and don't think anything much has changed.
If the Republicans have an amazing night next week I think she'll still lose by 5. If Republicans just have a good night come election day, she'll lose by 10. I think we will see the latter.
Your point about the media/liberal elite not being able to help themselves is a good one though. These people don't understand the American public, they hate religion and religious people, they look down on regular folks - and yes, even if they were shooting themselves in the foot my guess is your right that they would still keep up with making fun of COD.
No. Obummer will hang all his failures on her in the ‘12 election. She will be the new face of the party in his mind. At least Bush can be fully retired.
I kinda assumed that Palin would be there when I saw the tea party express tour was coming to wilmington. I think it’s a good thing.
Wow! What an uplifting thought. Thanks, you have made my day.
She’s still standing strong, that’s for sure.
I don't, if only because the demographics are badly against her.
Democrats outnumber Republicans in Delaware by 47-29%.
O'Donnell needs to make up that margin by winning hugely among independents, maybe coupled with utterly dismal turnout by Democrats and Coons-leaning independents.
Unfortunately for her, polls have been showing her trailing among independents by about the same as she's trailing in the overall results.
Some polls have her doing poorly even among Republicans (e.g., this one has her only getting 64% of Republicans, whereas Coons gets 19% Republican and 81% Democrat support....)
She’s had the opportunity to come across as not a crazy idiot in the debates, and she did even way way better than that. She even beat Coons (Yale Law) at Constitutional Law.
Arguable... but mainly irrelevant, given her demographic disadvantages. She's not going to get the dismal Democrat turnout she needs.
I’d feel better if this came from a page other than Hillbuzz. It gives DEBKA a run for its money when it comes to making stuff up to get hits.
Best TV moment of my life was seeing Judy Woodruff cry when Al Gore finally had to concede to GWB after SCOTUS ruled.
Fascinating.
We might be seeing the Bradley Effect here: with O’Donnell being so completely demonized by the MSM, poll respondents are lying to pollsters about their intent to vote for her.
The question being ... why are they piling on O'Donnell and not, say, Rossi or Fiorina?
That's obvious, even if her ardent supporters don't want to see it: it's because O'Donnell is an easy mark and the others are not. She doesn't come across like a Senator -- she's soft; and she seems shallow, hesitant, and very, very young.
Is that fair? No ... but it's real life in the media-dominated political world.
sweet really sweet
If O’Donnell wins, I am SO tuning in to Chris Matthews’ show on election night for the endless weeping and gnashing of teeth.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
In 2002 Carville put a bucket on his head whent the GOP gained seats in the midterms
In 2004 Carville slapped an egg on his face when Bush defeated Kerry
wonder what he’ll do if O’Donnell pulls this out??? I’m hoping Seppuku
lol
That’s funny.
If Coons wins, he won't be up for reelection until 2016. Senators serve six-year terms.
Hiya Onyx,
The local talk show guy was going on today about the lack of polls in this race. Come on, all week we’ve been hearing about polls from West Va,Ca, Ill, Rand Paul....even a poll just tonight on Fox for a supreme court judge running somewhere.
I got a theory about why this is so which I’ll share in a minute.
First, let me state that Palin is definitely due to come to Delaware this Sunday. COD just got the endorsement of former Gov. Dupont which is a big deal.
Next, you really need to get to Delaware more. Except I don’t know what to tell you to visit except maybe me.
Another tidbit which means i don’t know what, let me remind y’all that Delaware currently has another big, big race going on...that of Delaware’s ONLY Rep in America’s House, to replace Mike Castle’s old job. So this week Coons and the Democrat running for Castle’s old seat, former loot-gov John Carney, have BOTH refused to participate in any more debates. In fact, Carney didn’t show up for a scheduled debate with his pub opponent, Urquhart. Urquhart is greatly outpublicized by COD but he’s okay with it. I love the guy and hey, there’s no polls on this race either, now that I think of it.
Don’t know what to make of all these refusal to come out in public with the Dems Coons/Carney AND, as an aside, there’s another guy, Pete Schwartzkopf...you might remember his Dad, General in Desert Storm. Well Pete is a Dem, the ONLY Dem in Sussex county and we can’t stand the man. He’s running and let me tell you the Sussex pubs are out beating the hell out of Pete cause he’s a tax and spend Dem of the highest order. and this ain’t Wilmington here in Sussex county Delaware.
Anyway, Schwartzkopf TOO didn’t show up for a scheduled debate recently! Remember, these are not possible or suggested debates, they are debates all scheduled with audiences showing up and boom, the Dems...they ain’t showing up! Now Coons just refusing to go public this week.
What this means I don’t know but throwing it out there.
Now as for polling for either COD and poor ole forgotten Urquhart, just the nicest man...here are the demographics in Delaware. Up north, in the Wilmington area, which is 2.5 hours from my house in this little state just to give you an idea...Wilmington also being kind of an extended suburb of Philadelphia....fully 3/4 of the population leaves in that area. Most of them are Democrat, heavily union, a lot of the welfare class, some blue collar. Few pubs or even Independents.
In Kent and Sussex county, both of these counties have 1/4 of the population, VERY conservative, more conservative than most of your red states....very conservative. I love Sussex county, it’s a bit of heaven on earth.
Now that 3/4 of the population up around Wilmington, they might vote Democrat but they don’t wake up election morn all full of zest and smiles ready to go to the polls and cast their vote.
In the past Delaware has had reliable Mike Castle of RINO fame. So the beleaguered Kent and Sussex countians went and voted for Castle just so whatever nut case the Dems might have come up with doesn’t win. It was no mind if the 3/4 up north bothered to vote because the Dems were quite happy with Castle and they figured let the more reliable and probably not hung-over voters of Kent and Sussex vote him in.
THIS year they’ve got to get out those Philly surround voters and I do think they’ve taken polls and I suspect the polls are over the place.
I think the welfare Wilmington voters probably tell the pollsters that hell yeah they’ll vote for Coons, sho nuff. So right there you’ve got 75% of the sample...well maybe 60% to get logical...all saying they’ll vote for Coons, hell yeah.
Then they poll the Kent/Sussex voters and maybe right there you get 95% saying they’re going for COD. Do the math on it and I’m thinking you got maybe Coons up by 20-25 points.
BUT...WHAT’S WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE!
If you’re a Freeper you probably figgered it out. The Coons voters are quite likely to sleep in come election day so what the pollsters are hearing ain’t likely close to the outcome.
Bearing in mind, thanks for indulging me for my length, that I’m sure that a check of voting outcomes in the past likely revealed the turnout of voters to be something like 35% of the welfare folks with the rest being the Indies/pubs from downstate.
I am, understand here, pulling numbers outta the air but I’m working on my finely hones political hunch from what I learned in Delaware.
So much, so very, very much, depends on who comes out to vote this upcoming Tuesday. I know the turnout will affect races across the fruited plains but seriously, it is a drop dead huge point here in Delaware.
I’ll end with the thought that more than anything that this is why Obamer came to Delaware last week. I’m thinking they’ve got the unions working on picking up the wilmington voters, supply them with a pack of cigs, bus them to the polls...that kind of thing.
In short, but why should I be short now?...I think the COD/Coons race will be a squeaker/nail-biter.
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