Iran: Will We Act or Will We Wait?

29thday.org ^ | September 18, 2010 | George Berry

[Pete]

When President Bush made the decision to invade Iraq, many of us said, "You acted precipitously, you should have waited". Now, it comes to Iran, and President Obama is waiting. When not if Iran produces a nuclear weapon, won't many of us say, "You should have acted sooner. You waited too long"? Why the difference in strategy and which approach will prove to be most prudent?

This is the way I would explain the difference.

There was a lily pad on a pond, which doubled in size each day until, after 30 days, it covered the pond. The riddle is, on what day did it cover half the pond? Most of us think the answer is the 15th day, but it is not. The answer is the 29th day ... because the lily pad doubles in size each day.

So, it will not take 15 days to cover the first half of the pond and 15 days to cover the last half of the pond. What seems unbelievable to most of us is that it takes 29 days to cover the first half of the pond but only one day to cover the second half. This is exponential power.

Linear thinkers (most of us), who add to get the rate of change, think the answer is the 15th day and that 15 days remain to cover the last half of the pond. Exponential thinkers, who multiply to get the rate of change, know the answer is the 29th day and that only one day remains to cover the last half of the pond.  Q. How much of the pond is actually covered on the 15th day? A. 3/100,000 or 0.003% of the pond.

In the 21st century, for the first time in history, our world has become visibly exponential, that is, the rate of change is accelerating visibly, just like the lily pad. So, we are mistakenly thinking that the 29th day is only the 15th day. The result is we feel that (exponential) problems are becoming crises too suddenly, and traditional (linear) solutions are being implemented too slowly.  It is frightening us, angering us, making us feel that things are out of control.

President Bush was thinking exponentially. He understood the consequences of waiting and so he acted well before the 29th day. President Obama is thinking linearly and waiting. In effect, he is saying, "It is only the 15th day, we have plenty of time, we can fix it later". When the 29th day arrives with Iran, how many of us will think mistakenly that it is only the 15th day? Suddenly, we will be out of time.

We have paid a terrible price already for mistakenly thinking that the 29th day was only the 15th day. Do you really think "We have plenty of time" to avoid another disastrous 29th day, even after our real-life experience staring us right in the face

... of waiting too long to avoid the 2008 Financial Crisis?

... or of waiting too long to avoid the 2010 Gulf Oil Spill?

... and now, hearing at the 2010 G20 Economic Summit that we are going to wait too long again, this time to do something about the US National Debt?

Linear thinking is making us act like we have a death wish!

We don't have a lot of time. Iran is not waiting. Remember the lily pad. Israel will remember. Whether we like it or not ... the exponential clock is ticking.

tick ... tick ... tick.

For the moment, the choice is still ours. The price-tag is our future.

George L Berry, Actuary, 29thday.org

[conservativeimage]

Obama is not waiting, he's a pacifist.

Iran already has enough material for 2 atom bombs.

Obama lets Iran go nuclear. Obama mandates the reduction of U.S.'s nuclear arsenal. Obama ends combat in Iraq where Iran is actively engaged against us. Obama alienates Israel during the time of a nuclear Hitler. Obama's legal administration previously worked to free Gitmo terrorists. Obama tries to shut down Gitmo. Obama subverts southern states that were trying to enforce our borders. Feel safe? These were American's decisions because they're the ones who put Obama in office. I don't blame Obama, I blame ignorant voters.

[o-n-money]

Please wait until we get a responsible leader in office....then act.

[RonDog]

We will act on 1/20/13, just after President PALIN is sworn in.

[Cheetahcat]

We will act after this moron is out of office.

[Recon Dad]

Pete, I know this won't be a premise excepted by most but I contend by invading Iraq and kicking Saddam out we threw the region completely out of balance.

[ryan71]

We’ll do something after one of our cities is leveled.

[roses of sharon]

Obama wants Iran with a bomb.

It reduces the power of Israel.

[Blood of Tyrants]

It’s not that he is a pacifist. He is an anti-colonialist and sees it unfair that the US has nuclear weapons to threaten turd world countries.

[Del Rapier]

I believe there is unresolved business at home that needs to be taken care of.

Then Iran can be handled that much easier.

[Cobra64]

We’ll do something after one of our cities is leveled.

Obama will hand out Quarans and prayer rugs.

[MichaelCorleone]

President Palin immediately after inauguration: “Thank you fellow Americans. Now for the first order of business, the bombing starts in five minutes...”(a la Ronald Reagan in jest)

[PaleoBob]

Obama is NOT “waiting.” Waiting implies he’ll do something about Iran “not now but later.” The fact is, he will do NOTHING about Iran. Ever. He simply doesn’t care.