Ten Things for 2010 (Denninger/Market Ticker Strong Warning)

The Market Ticker ^ | May 14, 2010 | Karl Denninger

[Travis McGee]

(This is from the middle, but go to the link and read it all.)

Get those "sudden stop" plans in place - NOW. If you're in a big city you're in big trouble. Find friends or relatives that aren't and see what you can do about a place to go where you have a reasonable shot at avoiding the worst of this. Look, all-out civil unrest (or worse) is a low-probability event but if you get trapped in a big city and the worst comes that city will go feral within hours and become a free-fire zone. What's worse, many of these cities are openly hostile to citizens having and using effective self-defense; the bad guys don't give a damn about laws - that's why they're called criminals. There really are bogey men in the world - they're called gangs folks, and they would love the opportunity that a breakdown that would come with such an event. In such a circumstance the only way to win the game is not to play. This is all about where you are, not what you have.

If you haven't acquired the means of lawful self-defense in whatever form or fashion you deem prudent at this point, the time to do so was yesterday. You need time and practice as you need competence - the biggest component of self-defense is the thing found between your ears, not the thing in your hand(s)! I know I've harped on this before but if you think you can go buy a gun when things get dicey and be "protected", having invested nothing in practice and/or training you are very likely to have that weapon taken from you and then be shot with your own gun. That's a crappy way to die; if you're unwilling or unable for whatever reason (including legal restrictions where you live) to acquire the means of defense then being concerned about the above (where you're going to go, how you're going to get there, and what you've got for supplies) becomes even more important.

[mad_as_he$$]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_Force

[Lurker]

Thank you. I hadn’t heard them referred to that way.

[Screaming_Gerbil]

I have plenty of heavy armament in the form of rifles and pistols from the great wars. Pop guns don’t have a place in my safe, but one thing you mention is “fight[ing] like you mean it.” Any suggestions for training? I’ve taken some TKD and can be relative adroit with a blade, but I’d love to get some formal training. I’m a big man but know full well that these punks can be fast. I’m hoping that if some 7.62x54R doesn’t take them out at 100 yds, I can fend them off at close range.

Find some like-minded people that think like you do and share your concerns - friends, co-workers, neighbors, etc. Maybe go to the local shooting range, join a martial arts school, even visit local churches that reflect your religious beliefs - in an effort to find and meet up with like-minded people.

People whom you can train and plan together with...

[Screaming_Gerbil]

oh for god’s sake. enough with the drama. where’ this guy’s money invested? lemme guess...gold.

Actually... From the article: Ten Things You Must Do

Don't count on metals. I know, I know, we're going to hyperinflate and gold is going to the moon. I have one question: Can you eat it, drink it, run your car on it, sleep under it, or screw it? No? That's a problem. A "sudden stop" is not a hyperinflationary event - it has good odds of being quite the opposite. God help you if you put your eggs in that basket and are wrong.

[Christian_Capitalist]

That sounds damn interesting, but I was not aware that the Chinese had any SSBNs in 1968. Was this a sub that surfaced to fire horizontally-stored rockets?

You've got the right idea, except for the horizontal storage.

China had received at least one (possibly three? I may need to re-read the book) Golf I type SSBN from the Soviets in the early 1960s, prior to the breakdown of relations between Moscow and Beijing; the Golf I had to surface in order to launch, and carried 3 SLBM's with a range of about 350 NM (although these were vertical-launch tubes, not horizontal). By contrast, the K-129 was a Golf II class, able to launch while submerged and carrying 3 SLBM's with a range of 800 NM -- but otherwise very similar (as in almost identical) to a Golf I.

Ergo, when preparing to lanuch on Honolulu, K-129 took up a firing position about 350 NM northwest of Hawaii and surfaced in order to launch -- thus mimicking the firing profile of a Chinese Golf I.

According to Sewell's research (and a certain amount of ex-submariner's educated conjecture), the persons in control of K-129 had the missile's arming codes and launch codes (the warhead was live and the rocket engine was ignited) but they did not have the correct Fail-Safe codes (which codes the Soviet Fleet Command changed without prior notice from time to time). As a result, the missile's Fail-Safe exploded and sank the entire sub.

And, a few years later, the CIA sent out the Glomar Explorer to investigate the sinking and figure out what happened; and a few years after that, former submariner Ken Sewell pieced together all the data he was able to gather on the subject and wrote a book about it.

As to Sewell's conjectures about the Communist Party faction which had taken control of the sub at time of the launch attempt (hence his description of the sub as a "rogue"), I'll leave you a few spoilers to glean from the book itself.

[Travis McGee]

I’m familiar with the Glomar Explorer episode, but didn’t know the sub in question was involved in anything like this. Sounds like a great read!

[Travis McGee]

You got it.

[Christian_Capitalist]

Sure is. Picked up my first copy at Wal-Mart for $5 or $6 bucks a couple years ago (it's a fairly new book, 2006 or so), gave it to an ex-Airborne guy I work with after he read it and asked for a copy. Just bought a new copy from Amazon by way of that gift card.

Two thumbs up.

[investigateworld]

I see where J&G sales is selling a ‘Sterling type” carbine that shoots that Russkie stuff. Pity, I already have a sub Caliber rifle.

[Travis McGee]

INteresting, I’ve never heard of that! The cheap high-velocity ammo makes a cheap subgun to shoot it a natural.

[stylin_geek]

Because I was concerned, and I finally found something my son and I could do together, we are both now armed with .308 and 1911’s.

My son, being far from stupid, mentioned that he knew I was worried and therefore the firearms. I told him that wasn’t the only reason.

My son is ex-army, combat veteran and knows a bit about shooting.

[Screaming_Gerbil]

It’s super to hear that you and your son are a team.

The .308 NAT (7.62x51) beats the 7.62x39 AK round and the 1911’s .45 acp round beats the 9mm that the bad guys will be using.

All the best to you and your son!

[hiredhand]

Denninger sounds like Ferfal. :-)

[hiredhand]

I'm not telling you this to make you feel bad, because I've missed too many things to count. :-)

I spent about 13 years USAF/AD and our last home while I was active duty was in Alabama. I left active duty in 1998 and we moved in 1999. We kept the house rented until "about" 2006 or so. It was in a very desirable community and was a "nice" house...nothing to scream about. The guy managing it for us kept telling us that he could sell it at "so much" of a profit. Every couple of months he would mention this. We finally noticed that the thing had gone up in value a LOT. We stood to make about $30k if we could sell it, and he assured us that we could sell it. So we sold it...and we made about $30k...with which we promptly bought land to avoid paying some sort of taxes on the profits (capital gains perhaps?...I can't remember).

Here's where the story gets "strange". Before we bought the house, every mortgage company we went to tried to sell us on a ARM. My wife is the math wizard...NOT me. We both read the contract based on the ARM and she came to the conclusion that they were out of their freakin minds and even potentially trying to HARM us. She confronted one in particular about this and the lady flatly didn't want to talk about it. It was just STRANGE. We ended up buying the house on a VA loan.

But then just before the third quarter of 2007 a good friend of mine told me to watch, and learn something about "sub-prime" mortgages, because these were going to cause a financial cascade. I read as much as I could stand and gained a basic understanding of the CRA of 1977 and how it's changes facilitated the problems, culminating with the sub-prime crisis.

It was only after sub-prime that I looked back on the sale of that house in Alabama along with those conversations that we had with the finance people that I realized what had occurred. It was a real holy crap sort of moment for me.

Don't feel bad if you end up with nothing when this is all said and done. Nobody is going to end up with much.

[hiredhand]

Wow...lots of soft targets all concentrated in one place. :-) I wonder if they shoot holding the pistol upside down, or sideways? We actually tried that and it's nearly impossible to run our CQB course holding the weapon that way. It was a LOT easier to use the AR-15 upside down, but our hit ratio was low. :-)

[Southack]

"Invest in steel, copper and lead."

Yes, ammo is good...but a better plan is a layered defense.

#1: Have cash on hand. Deflationary panics cause acute shortages of cash. Bank closures. Bank "holidays." Delays on accessing the cash in your bank accounts and stock brokerage accounts. Keep cash on hand. At least 1 month's worth of all expenses. More is better.

#2: Have alternative ways to earn money or barter. Drip gas. Biodiesel. Ammunition reloading. Garden veggies. Solar battery re-charging. Car repair parts and skills. Fresh water distillation. Logging. Weaving/rug-making/knitting/sewing. Fishing. Towing. Tire repair. Honeybees. Candle-making. Blacksmithing.

#3: Have an escape route. Sail boat. Armored car. Aircraft.
#3A: Have a backup. Bicycle. Motorcycle. Kayak. Raft.

#3B: Have a destination. Close. Defendable. Hidden. Off the grid. Self-sufficient.
#3C: Have a backup. Far away.

#4: Fortress Home. Maybe you don't have to flee. Or can't flee. Food. Water. Fuel. Gas masks. Garden. Solar distillation. Well. Rainwater collectors. Septic sewage disposal. Large dog. Levels of weapons from non-lethal (e.g. tear gas or pepper spray and stun guns and bean-bag rounds) to non-manufactured-ammo weapons that can always be used such as (knife, sword, slingshot, bow+arrows) to firearms with stored, manufactured ammo in quantity. Should also have tradable items such as cigarettes, cheap vodka, silver, plus basic/needed medical supplies.

#5: Interaction with the real world. The odds are that a major disruption of society will *not* occur. You need a "normal" job or business. You need normal interaction with the outside world. #'s 1 through 4 may never come into play. #5 keeps you sane and not "wishing for the big one" as time passes.

[altair]

We cannot repay these loans by printing money or borrowing more and we are past our ability to produce our way out of debt.

That's true, but it's been true for quite a long time. See here for Charles Lindbergh's warning on the eve that the Fed and IRS were institutionalized.

The mathematics of borrowing money against compound interest is inherently rigged and not any different than "fighting the odds" in a casino. The banker or the casino is always going to win. Always.

[Joya]

Thanks.

[Joya]

Cross-ref

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2517567/posts

[Molly T.]

Would you please add me to your ping list?
Thanks...