Posted on 04/07/2010 5:38:19 PM PDT by Bigtigermike
If Sarah Palin runs for President, then she will win the Republican nomination. The rally she is holding today with Michelle Bachmann is amazing, and Obama-like, in it's size:
More than 10,000 Republican faithful are expected to crowd into the Minneapolis Convention Center on Wednesday when Sarah Palin joins Rep. Michele Bachmann at a fundraiser and rally for Bachmann's re-election bid and the Minnesota state Republican Party.
Anyone who can draw 10,000 people to a rally in Minnesota--in early 2010, no less-- is formidable. In the specific case of Sarah Palin, it makes her virtually unstoppable.
National polling for the Republican nomination has consistently shown Palin in a roughly three-way tie with Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. However:
1. Huckabee is unlikely to run, and his evangelical / born again base (virtually all Huckabee voters in 2008 were evangelicals) is a lot closer to Sarah Palin than they are to Mitt Romney. So, Palin will likely start ahead in national polls among declared candidates.
2. Romney's strength in 2008 was in caucuses, which are dominated by dedicated activists. Of the 11 states that Romney won in 2008, three were "home" states (MA, where he was Governor; MI where his father was Governor; and UT for religion), and the other eight were all caucuses. However, Romney isn't going to win many caucuses if he is facing a candidate who can draw 10,000 people to a rally in early 2010, not to mention what is likely a tarnished reputation among Republican activists after the health care fight.
3. Palin's grassroots strength will provide her with all the funding she needs, and also goes a long way to pre-empting any possible insurgent candidacy against her. This will especially be the case if Ron Paul runs again, since Paul can't win the nomination but would soak up pretty much all of the remaining grassroots energy on the Republican side.
4. Say what you will about Palin's ability as a campaigner, but if gaffes were going to make her unpopular among Republicans, it would have happened already.
If Sarah Palin runs for President in 2012, I have a difficult time imagining someone else winning the Republican nomination. While this is pretty good news for Democrats, as Palin polls worse against Obama than almost any other Republican (see also PPP polling), it is also pretty scary. A continually weak economy--which is very possible--could actually make her President less than three years from now.
"To:
I love Palin’s conservatism and patriotism! She may very well support McCain out of loyalty and I have no problem with that. And I have no problem with whom she supports with her PAC. There is nothing written that says she has to do everything (or anything at all) according to JIM.
Sarah is unabashedly pro-God, pro-Life, pro-Liberty, pro-family, pro-America, pro-constitution, pro-gun, pro-limited government and so am I. And she’s wildly popular among the God-loving, Liberty-loving folks with whom I choose to associate. In short, she’s a refreshing breath of clean fresh air in an otherwise putrid failure of a RINO infested party.
She represents my interests better than any other viable wannabe at this point and if she decides to run, she will have my undivided support!!
Romney, the draft-dodging, Big Government, lying statist political whore can KMA!!
And your picture does say a 1,000 words, but Bob, unfortunately they’re all about YOU and political whores like you and the results and likely outcome of your slavish, cultish RINOism!!
So you can shove your picture and your RINOs where the sun don’t shine.
Sarah has more guts, talent, ability, patriotism, and sheer determination and love for America and our God-given Liberty than you and Romney and a thousand other RINOS will ever have!
It’s been more than obvious for several years that our pro-Life & Liberty Free Republic has become an embarrassment for you, so why the hell don’t you just take a fricken hike already!!
Shove it, pal.
GET THE HELL OFF FR if you don’t like it, but whatever you do quit your damn whining and pestering good conservative FReepers about your hatred for Sarah Palin!! It’s beyond sickening.
394 posted on Saturday, January 09, 2010 12:05:07 PM by Jim Robinson"
It’s good to see that David Frum here has decided to grace us with his presence.
Are you conceding the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination to Governor Sarah Palin?
I think Arguendo has completed her shift and is now cooling her heels [or mountain boots] with a tall frosty one at the nearest lesbian bar.
And the fox-romney-news channel did a dramatic breaking news alert with known Palin-hater Brett Baier declaring during Special Report that “Palin had broken the law by setting up her legal expense fund”. A damn lie.
She speaks to the average person like a friend. She doesn't preach to us or look down on "us" (the american people), like many politicians do.
Her demeanor transends parties as regular people relate to her!
With that said, I can't understand in this crucial time in the world, why people would be so nasty about her.
I won't trash Mitt or Huck.
I might say I don't care for them for whatever reason, but trashing our front runners in the polls right now, doesn't help any of us.
I like Huckabee, but I had rather he not be President.
I like Mitt, he has charisma and he is business savvy, which the country needs, but again, I am not really feeling trust or the love with him either.
I could probably find a lot of things I agree with each of them on, and of course a lot I dont.
But any one of the 3 of them would be a better POTUS than the "ONE" who is trying to take our country and our money and get us all killed!!!
I guess my point is, why does there have to be so much hate?
Can't you say I don't care for XXXXX and move on?
It is like Ron Paul people beating a dead horse!!
Oh and it is so odd how a lot of the palin haters are 2008 sign ups too! ..HMMMMMMM
B. Respondig with insults to an opinion is without value.
Of course that never stopped any of you palinites from jumping right into the gutter.
Hey, bub, what part of "this could not have happened because of Axelrod's deliberate plan to trap and crush her in Alaska" do you NOT understand?
O.K., specifically WHO else do you think would appeal to a majority of Americans right now?
Inquiring minds want to know...
Your reply....It was a very astute political decision.
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Nope it was a big honking mis-step. America doesn't like quitters and no matter how you spin it that is what she did, quit. The dems, the media will hammer that fact relentlessly. If you think they won't, if you think they will decide to ignore the power in that attack then please explain why.
You appear to be emotionally invested in palin and willing to accept anything she does as perfection. Most of America is not, does not and will not. They will have to be convinced and her resignation halfway through her first term is not persuasive of her qualification to handle the toughest job on the planet.
“I agree. I don’t think she is qualified nor do I think she could win the general election.”
I disagree on both counts. Was 0 “qualified”? Sarah is far more so than he. Was Reagan “qualified”? Sarah has every bit as much going for her as did he.
As to winning the general election, I guess you’re in for a big surprise there. It’ll be interesting to see if the Dems have the nerve to run 0 again, but if not who will vote for them? I don’t see any way they can undo the damage to their reputation and image by 2012. In fact, I believe things will continue to worsen for them in the interim.
“I do think that, contrary to common opinion around here, the left is not afraid of her.”
LOL. Every bit of evidence indicates the obvious falsity of that statement. They have every reason to fear her, her integrity, natural appeal, faith, values and ethics are the antithesis of every Dem politician with which I’m familiar.
Her persona and accomplishments show the worth of hard work and conservative values. She got what she has the old fashioned way, something that can’t be said for many politicians.
“Every time they attack her the net effect is that her choir digs in harder. That’s fine except her choir will not add up to the 70,000,000 votes that the next winner will need. At least 12,000,000 of those votes would have to come from the independent bloc (assuming that she captured every GOP vote from 2008).”
Yep. And by 2012 the independents will be flocking to the right even harder than they are now, and right now something like 70% of them are ready to vote against 0.
Palin will do better than average with them, not worse.
“If I were a dem strategist I’d be licking my chops, waiting to get to the point where she would have to explain to the great unwashed why she quit in Alaska. It was a stupid political move that, in spite of what her fans here wish, will not go away. The dems will hammer her with it and the middle will wonder.”
Her quitting in Alaska is easily explained and understood. She is reaching much more of a national audience than she would have if she’d stayed as governor, and is being far more effective against the Left. Nor can she be accused of campaigning when she should be running a state.
She is crazy like a fox.
“Likewise, it’s a mistake to equate tea-party participant with Palin for President supporter. The TPers love to see her but that’s not why they show up. More than half the TPers I know are not aboard that train.”
Your acquaintances account for a vanishingly small fraction of the movement. Check the polls for some real information.
Unless someone better comes along, a possibility I believe is quite small, Sarah Palin has excellent prospects for 2012. To me the parallels with Reagan are stunning. The major difference is she has far more charisma and energy.
“Winning the primary with that 150 million dollar campaign, and then hitting the general with her half a billion dollars and the party organization, will make for a very nice polling boost for Sarah Palin.”
I hope she follows 0’s lead in one sense - turning down public financing.
Fight fire with fire!
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Palin is more qualified than the poser but not "far more" qualified. Any Burger King manager is more qualified than he is. That doesn't mean qualified to be President of the United States.
Equating palin's self-imposed half a term as governor of a small state to Reagan's two full terms as governor of one of the largest states is just silly.
What exactly is there in Palin's actual life history that makes you believe that she can...
Reverse the HC debacle
Save the economy
Save Social Security and Medicare
Stifle the unions
Deal with an aggressive Russia/Putin
Deal with a collapsing EU
Deal with what is really a civil war on our southern border
Deal with increasingly belligerent and spreading marxism in our hemisphere
Deal with increasingly aggressive Chinese presence in our hemisphere
Deal with increasingly belligerent Chinese presence in Africa
Deal with NK
Deal with Iran (in opposition to both Russia and China)
Reset the Mideast
Run the end game in Iraq
find a winning strategy or acceptable exit in Afghanistan
Fight AQ and its global allies
Deal with the FSRs that are either already set against us (Uzbeks) or suddenly turning against us (Kryzsgistan sp)
Keep Colombia from drifting away
Keep India from drifting away
Keep Pakistan from going both aggressively islamic and regionally aggressive
All at the same time and all the while fighting the same hostile press that drove her from office in Alaska.
Please be specific.
“Palin is more qualified than the poser but not “far more” qualified. Any Burger King manager is more qualified than he is. That doesn’t mean qualified to be President of the United States.”
Someone with the real world executive experience of Sarah is in fact qualified to be President. Any lack of experience will be balanced by her integrity, ethics and values. She is certainly, without a doubt, far more qualified than the community organizer and weak academic we’re stuck with at the moment.
“Equating palin’s self-imposed half a term as governor of a small state to Reagan’s two full terms as governor of one of the largest states is just silly.”
In your opinion. First of all, I’d say that Reagan didn’t do a stellar job as governor of California. Sarah not only did a fine job in Alaska by all accounts, but cleaned up a cesspool of corruption at the same time.
That’s the same thing she needs to do on a larger scale in Washington.
“What exactly is there in Palin’s actual life history that makes you believe that she can...”
LOL! I’m not going to waste my time with that, since Sarah will be the one to deal with those issues.
You, however, are laboring under a large misconception. Despite the illusory image projected by 0, the President is not expected to be an expert in any particular area, solve international and military problems, or most of the other things in your laundry list. They are expected to be good executives who can assemble a team of experts to tackle those problems.
Once again harking back to Reagan, he was famous for delegating responsibility and listening to his experts. Knowing who to believe and making the hard decisions are the qualities needed in a top executive.
I expect that Sarah’s intelligence, common sense, and moral compass will enable her to do just fine.
I’m also curious which mainstream Republican candidate you feel would do better with your list than Sarah? They would all face the same set of challenges including a recalcitrantly hostile press.
BTW, after briefly looking over your list I would say that simply returning to a strong American military stance on the international scene, which I’m quite sure will be a centerpiece of the Palin agenda, would solve most of the military and diplomatic issues you listed.
0’s extreme pacificism isn’t exactly working out. ;-)
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IOW...just like every other palinite of whom I have asked the same question...you don't have an answer. As I said, being more qualified than the current office holder is not the same as being qualified. Her CV is better than his but not by much.
Maybe the lack of serious debate is why unlike Daily Kos, FR has never had significant political influence.
And if every opinion different from that of the owner’s can be attacked like that, how can there be serious political discourse?
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