Posted on 04/07/2010 5:38:19 PM PDT by Bigtigermike
If Sarah Palin runs for President, then she will win the Republican nomination. The rally she is holding today with Michelle Bachmann is amazing, and Obama-like, in it's size:
More than 10,000 Republican faithful are expected to crowd into the Minneapolis Convention Center on Wednesday when Sarah Palin joins Rep. Michele Bachmann at a fundraiser and rally for Bachmann's re-election bid and the Minnesota state Republican Party.
Anyone who can draw 10,000 people to a rally in Minnesota--in early 2010, no less-- is formidable. In the specific case of Sarah Palin, it makes her virtually unstoppable.
National polling for the Republican nomination has consistently shown Palin in a roughly three-way tie with Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. However:
1. Huckabee is unlikely to run, and his evangelical / born again base (virtually all Huckabee voters in 2008 were evangelicals) is a lot closer to Sarah Palin than they are to Mitt Romney. So, Palin will likely start ahead in national polls among declared candidates.
2. Romney's strength in 2008 was in caucuses, which are dominated by dedicated activists. Of the 11 states that Romney won in 2008, three were "home" states (MA, where he was Governor; MI where his father was Governor; and UT for religion), and the other eight were all caucuses. However, Romney isn't going to win many caucuses if he is facing a candidate who can draw 10,000 people to a rally in early 2010, not to mention what is likely a tarnished reputation among Republican activists after the health care fight.
3. Palin's grassroots strength will provide her with all the funding she needs, and also goes a long way to pre-empting any possible insurgent candidacy against her. This will especially be the case if Ron Paul runs again, since Paul can't win the nomination but would soak up pretty much all of the remaining grassroots energy on the Republican side.
4. Say what you will about Palin's ability as a campaigner, but if gaffes were going to make her unpopular among Republicans, it would have happened already.
If Sarah Palin runs for President in 2012, I have a difficult time imagining someone else winning the Republican nomination. While this is pretty good news for Democrats, as Palin polls worse against Obama than almost any other Republican (see also PPP polling), it is also pretty scary. A continually weak economy--which is very possible--could actually make her President less than three years from now.
Then you didn't understand the situation.
Your previous posts indicate you're a student and quite proud of it. But it's obvious you've not done your research here.
That's the differnce between younger people and older people...we don't have to research it, if we lived it, and PAID ATTENTION.
As the leading conservative in America, and the most relentlessly attacked and smeared politician that we have ever seen in the United States, Governor Palin would have been finished if she had merely returned to the Governor’s chair in the distant land of Alaska, and she would have taken the conservative gains of the last 17 months with her.
No one could fight her fight with the Networks, the DNC, the Sunday shows, the Romney/Rockefeller GOP, the New York Times and the Los Angeles Times, and the power centers of DC, New York, LA, and also lead the the conservative comeback and decimate the Democrat ranks as she is doing with her 20 Democrat Congressional take down, while being a Governor in Hawaii, or Alaska.
YOUR Words are worthless, commie. “I,I,I” “me,me,me” - just like your leader.
Get lost chump, you have an incredibly hard time leaving this SARAH thread - it’s funny watching your obsession and your propaganda droppings - you cling, cling, cling to SARAH! You need more of Sarah - so you’ll be on the next SARAH thread and the next SARAH thread - getting your SARAH fix.
Accomplishment - ZERO - YOU FAIL!
;-/
He’s not into learning, he’s into insults and smearing conservatives. He’s a troll - kick him around a bit - he doesn’t know the difference.
Then she hasn’t done a very good job of communicating “the situation,” because I’ve followed it more closely than most people and I still don’t “understand” (nor do many other people). And one of the most important thing a politician can do is communicate effectively to create a positive image.
I assume she has a plan to change that if she runs, but she risks having people’s image of her cemented by then.
Actually the evidence is incredibly supportive of her strength at this stage, for some one that knows politics.
With the possible exception of Reagan, I don’t recall conservatives ever being this well positioned, this far out of a Presidential election.
Take a look at this thread article again, the guy makes a lot of those points.
Since you’re so confident about this, I’m assuming you’ve bet money on it? You can get 25 cents on the dollar that she is the Republican nominee, and 40 cents on the dollar that the Republican wins. If you’re right, it’s a chance to make a fortune.
Or are you just mouthing off?
His point is that she’s in a good position to win the Republican nomination, not the presidency, and I agree she is in a pretty good position for this. But he also says if she is nominated it would be a huge boon to Democrats, and this position is almost universally shared by political experts (and much of the population).
She’s probably be like Goldwater—lots of highly dedicated supporters, but still a terrible candidate in a national contest.
Not only a troll, but a snobby troll.
Your mind is so closed you won’t accept anything that contradicts your beliefs if it doesn’t come right from Palin’s lips.
She could lose by 10 points and you’d probably claim the election was stolen by voter fraud.
Sorry, it’s hard not to be snobby when you’re dealing with someone that dull and yet overly certain of himself.
Exactly.
She was in a no-win situation. She was being pummeled financially at home, and image wise in the press. She couldn't fight back because of her office.
It occurred to me at the time the Lefty activists and the LSM had it figured that way, too.
She took chicken...uh...feathers, and turned it into chicken salad.
Since then, nothing has happened to change my mind on that...quite the opposite, actually. It was a brilliant bit of political jujitsu.
She's shown the ability to talk around the press, which is essential for a conservative. She's shown the ability to frame issues and hammer opponents with them. Who knew that a facebook account and two words..."Death Panels," could be so devastatingly effective?
She's financially secure, which all successful politicians must be...they won't be asking how politicians go into the Oval Office with a net worth of $100K, and come out multiple millionaires, in relation to Palin.
She continues to impress.
No, for her to be showing so strongly this far out, before she has been nominated and picked up the official mantle of the Republican candidate for President, versus the Democrat candidate Obama means that she is showing very strongly,
We know that she is an extraordinary campaigner, we know that she wins elections, and we also know that she has never had a 150 million dollar advertising campaign focused purely on herself, as Mitt Romney has.
Romney has only won one election in his 18 year political life, and he left that office with a dismal 34% approval rating, yet he is a front runner like Palin, the reason is that he spent 150 million dollars to market his new image.
Winning the primary with that 150 million dollar campaign, and then hitting the general with her half a billion dollars and the party organization, will make for a very nice polling boost for Sarah Palin.
We shall see. As I pointed out earlier, given where the numbers are now you can make some very nice money betting on that on Intrade if you’re so confident.
So what does that mean? Were you calling Palin supporters here at freerepublic inbreds?
Who knows?
S/he seems to be pretty bright, has some schooling, hasn't yet learned the limits of it...but life will take care of that.
S/he isn't old enough, I'd guess, to have witnessed 1974-1980. RR was the most successful politician of my lifetime. He didn't accomplish that by doing things the way they'd always been done. He rewrote the rules.
Palin, it seems to me, is doing the same. Will she be as successful? Even if she wasn't, she could still do very well.
It takes some living to be able to see that.
Some, certainly. But that’s true for any populist politician, Democrat or Republican.
You believe what he/she says? Bright? LOL! Posts show otherwise, merely, repeating what it heard. Shows what/who they are listening to, doesn’t have the ability to grasp the truth when presented and lacks critical thinking. Then the constant slurs who doesn’t agree w/him. Liberal from the get go - a troll. Not an ounce of conservatism.
G’night.
Sad to say, that's what colleges do today. We'll have to convert them.
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