Posted on 03/16/2010 6:18:20 PM PDT by TornadoAlley3
There’s actually not a whole lot to update. However, I do want to flag a couple things which I think are illustrative of the difficulties the House is having in getting this done.
There still are no numbers from CBO. At one point they were expected on Friday. There’s a rumor that the preliminary CBO scores were a bit low, not showing enough savings. And everyone in the undecided camp, or practically everyone, cites waiting for those scores as a reason not to commit.
The President’s holding a come one, come all rally in Fairfax, Virginia on Friday. At one point we were told that would be the day of the vote. Obviously, that’s been pushed back. Some are saying Saturday; others say maybe next week. But the uncertainty as of Tuesday night is striking.
Here are some changes since the last whip count, although most of them have simply been reinforcing:
• I explained earlier that I would make Mike Doyle a Yes, but do nothing on Nick Rahall, based on the information provided.
• So Dennis Kucinich is holding a press conference at 10am tomorrow to announce his vote on health care. That should be, er, interesting. We’ll see what he says then.
• Jason Altmire really wants me to take him off the Yes board, by expressing concern not only about the “deem and pass” strategy but about the inclusion of student loan reform in the bill. Altmire clearly loves the spotlight and I’m about to tune him out completely, but his public Hamlet maneuver isn’t doing a lot to fool me. I still maintain he’ll be there in the end.
• Lots of members are in that same, undecided category, at least in their public statements. Jim Matheson, John Barrow, Scott Murphy, Mike Arcuri, Henry Cuellar, Bill Foster; you name the undecided, they’re probably in the same place. Similarly, Joe Donnelly remains in the confirmed Stupak bloc, and Tom Perriello does not, no matter what third-hand reports at NRO say.
• This “report” from one of Travis Childers’ Republican opponents that he’ll definitely vote for the bill is kind of laughable. So, go ahead and laugh at it!
• Marcy Kaptur chatted with The Hill and brought up a host of issues other than the Stupak amendment, which is probably enough to take her out of the Stupak-curious bloc, but not enough to take her out of the undecided category, though I think we can safely keep her as a lean Yes.
• I have an eye on Sanford Bishop based on this article, but I’m going to keep him off the board for now, subject to change.
So does that change anything? Really, just Mike Doyle. Everything else is in a holding pattern, at least until the CBO score comes out and the schedule gets set. Every day that we wait for that score, and the date of a final vote, is probably a day that the House leadership grows nervous.
Final numbers then: 191 yes, 206 no, with leaners, 206-209.
Raw numbers on the flip:
Definite YES: 191 Democrats, including Jason Altmire (D-PA), who voted No last time, in November.
Definite NO: 178 Republicans, including Joseph Cao (R-LA), who voted Yes in November. He’s in the Stupak bloc.
Definite NO: 28 Democrats.
23 Democrats who voted No in November: Bobby Bright, Mike McIntyre, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Artur Davis, Chet Edwards, Frank Kratovil, Mike Ross, Dan Boren, Gene Taylor, Larry Kissell, Dennis Kucinich, Collin Peterson, Ike Skelton, Jim Marshall, Mike McMahon, Charlie Melancon, Tim Holden, Ben Chandler, Health Shuler, Rick Boucher, Allen Boyd, John Adler.
5 Democrats who voted Yes in November (confirmed Stupak bloc): Bart Stupak, Dan Lipinski, Kathy Dahlkemper, Joe Donnelly, Steve Driehaus.
13 potential Democratic No-Yes flip votes:
7 lean Yes: Bart Gordon, Brian Baird, John Boccieri (Clyburn Three), Suzanne Kosmas, Betsy Markey, Scott Murphy, John Tanner.
5 undecided: Lincoln Davis, Jim Matheson, Harry Teague, Travis Childers, John Barrow.
1 lean No: Glenn Nye.
21 potential Yes-No flip votes:
4 additional Stupak bloc (Stupak-curious): Brad Ellsworth, Jerry Costello, Henry Cuellar, *Marion Berry.
8 lean Yes: Paul Kanjorski, Dina Titus, Betty Sutton, Baron Hill, Allan Mollohan, Bill Owens, Marcy Kaptur, Tom Perriello.
8 other undecided Democrats: Zack Space, Chris Carney, Ann Kirkpatrick, Nick Rahall, Solomon Ortiz, Earl Pomeroy, Bill Foster, Harry Mitchell.
2 lean No: Mike Arcuri, Marion Berry.
Democrats need 25 of a combination of the 13 potential No-Yes flip votes and the 21 potential Yes-No flip votes. So they need 25 out of the remaining uncommitted 34. If you’re counting leaners, Democrats need 10 of the last 16 uncommitted.
ping
There’s no such thing as a definite “no” vote from a Democrat.
Yup The Keebler Elf is holding out for the public option and an ERISSA amendment.
“There still are no numbers from CBO. “
Any bets? I say they got them, but they could not doctor them enough to get the Deemocrat vote in on time, without making them look even worse and sent them back for some eraser work...hand delivered by that rat bsstrd ballet dancer...
The Rats think only voting for the rule and not the bill will give them cover but it won’t, they’re toast next election if this crap goes through.
I think they are toast next election regardless.
Too close. If they votes on this it would pass in my estimation. Nancy like to be sure so it is not sure yet but I don’t like the numbers right now. We need to keep the pressure on. A small miracle would not hurt either.
Sorry for typos. Using mobile.
Good Freeping...but I am SO over this, already.
Pass the Ef-er so every state in the nation (34 so far and counting!) can pass legislation saying, “Not only No, but HELL NO” to this cr@p!
It truly is going to be up to each STATE to fend for itself. Why only a handful have to this date is beyond me.
Well, not really. I attended Publik Skrewel. They don’t teach anything about States’ Rights, the 10th Amendment, the 17th Amednment, etc.
The ‘Rats just LOVE, LOVE, LOVE our dumbed-down electorate and it probably annoys Nine-Percent Nance to no END that there are a few of us still out here that see what she’s up to. *Rolleyes*
Health Care Nulification Legislation by the States:
http://www.tenthamendmentcenter.com/nullification/health-care/
Cut loose hell NOW!!!
No suprise that FDL is counting almost all of the ‘leaners’ as ‘yes-leaning’. The numbers:191-206 and 206-209 with leaners. That means 18 leaners, 15 yes leaners, and 3 no leaners. Even with that, the leaner, meaner vote is still short.
Will he be holding the press conference in front of the tree where they bake the cookies?
Heyup. Full Pressure!
Oh, I know that. I’m ready to secede from the rest of the nation right here on my own two little acres, LOL!
Join me? ;)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.