Posted on 01/26/2010 4:28:16 PM PST by Jet Jaguar
Our monthly look ahead to the 2012 race for President is a good prism into the conundrum Republican voters face when it comes to Sarah Palin.
She continues to be the darling of conservatives in the party with 79% of them holding a favorable opinion of her compared to 61% for Mike Huckabee and 60% for Mitt Romney.
But when it comes to the general election match ups she loses 30% of the liberal/moderate Republican vote to Barack Obama compared to just 23% for Huckabee and 22% for Romney.
It's a simple reality that Sarah Palin is less electable than a more mainstream Republican candidate would be- GOP primary voters in 2012 may decide their party's fate by whether they vote with their hearts or their heads. POSTED BY TOM JENSEN AT 3:59 PM
She is controlling the conversation. If the country club Republicans don't watch out, she will be controlling the agenda.
FWIW - I just posted these ruminations on another thread:
Presidential politics has a certain rhythm and I believe after the *experiment* we are witnessing with this first black president; the Nation may not be ready for the wave of a new *first woman* endurance test.
It is apparent that Scott Brown’s persona is evoking more traditional eras - of Ike, JFK and Reagan; when the Nation was united against a common enemy rather than against a group of domestic tyrants.
Sarah Palin is a fantastic messenger - I believe she has the experience and intellect for the office. However, the media has already diminished her stature with its unyielding personal character assassination, and she has been reduced (unfairly) to the status of the inexperienced Obama.
Her first national office should have been VP and it might yet happen.
I believe the voters in 2012 will be looking for a Scott Brown from the Governors’ ranks - with prior US Senate or Congressional experience.
Just MHO.
Let’s wait and see if there is a “conundrum” in the general election, 3 years out.
Meanwhile, it looks like she’s in great position to nab the nomination with those kind of numbers among the GOP. It appears Mitt has more of a conundrum than Palin, quite frankly. His is that he can’t get out of the primary, as the base of his own party doesn’t care much for him.
But 3 years is a long way to go, and I like where Palin is positioned. If she was the front runner in all of these polls, I’d be worried. Front-runners don’t fare so well this far away from the next election.
PPP is a democrat polling service, had 0bama ahead by 15 on election day.
Oh, geez...
I know. Jensen is a lib. I disagree with his assertions regarding his polls.
But, he his numbers have been pretty accurate lately.
It sounds like PPP is saying that for the Repub’s to win in 2012 they need to put up another RINO/Moderate. I saw what that did in 2008 and prefer not to take advice from the enemy.
These polling numbers do go a long way in explaining her endorsement of McCain in the AZ primary.
But as I said in another post: “I don’t think it’s going to turn out that way. I think she has seriously underestimated the significance of both the AZ primary and her part in it. And if McCain does actually win, thanks to her efforts on his behalf, the political price she will pay for her support for McCain now might become astronomical in her own primary.”
It would be political irony or ironies if Mitt Romney, the consummate middle-of-the-road Republican, and McCain protege, were to win the 2012 Republican primary simply because Palin pulled this stunt now on McCain’s behalf.
ex animo
davidfarrar
So 18 or 19 points ahead with the core motivated base isn’t as good as 7 or 8 points ahead with the mushy middle?
Idiocy.
I recall the same argument regarding Rubio, and look at him today.
I am not old enough to remember, but do you have any idea what Reagan’s chances looked like in ‘77 and ‘78? Just sayin.
What better endorsement could she get?
What these bogus stats don't tell is that Palin would get more of the independent vote, and that independents are not moderates. The independent voters, by self-identification, are a larger percentage than either Democrats or Republicans.
Let her fly under the radar by not being the formation leader.
In the meantime, she appears to be hitting all of her targets with devastating accuracy.
MSM and party hack flak guns are out of range and running out of surplus munitions.
Sarah will just keep circling around, reloading, then dumping on the idiots over, and over, and over.
Win, lose or draw in 2012, she will help to shape the legislature and national opinion in 2010. And that is what is the most important.
So, they are saying that liberal & moderate Republicans are sexist pigs?
What many people did not realize (and many still do not) is that Reagan over time had developed his conservative philosophy and gave many speeches under the aegis of General Electric(oh irony)to make his case for conservative government.
When Jimmy Carter turned out to be such a disaster, Reagan got the job and I remember the DemocRATS giggling about what an old fool he was and how they were going to roll him over (Chris Matthews who worked for Tip O'Neil very loud on this).
The Big BossManbeat them like a drum.
If Reagan had kept control of theSenate, and if that little pissant Hinckley shot him, there is no telling how much more Reagan could have done for us.
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