The Power of the 10-Year Kress Cycle

Commodity News Center ^ | 8/24/09 | Clif Droke

[h20skier66]

Here we are again approaching another 10-year cycle peak. The last such peak was in 1999 while the most recent 10-year cycle bottom was in 2004. We wrote extensively on both episodes at the time and the 10-year cycle is one of our favorites. It's what I like to call the "slam dunk" cycle since among all the yearly Kress cycles, the 10-year cycle at its peak and bottom phase can almost always be used for profitable trading/investing almost by itself.

It will be sad to wave goodbye to our friend, the 10-year cycle, in a few weeks. After the 10-year cycle peaks it will be up to the 6-year cycle to provide any longer-term support between now and 2012 when the final "hard down" phase of the Kress 120-year Grand Super Cycle begins. In this commentary we'll focus on the remaining portion of the 10-year cycle and how it can still be used to good effect by investors between now and year-end. That the broad market has benefited from the peaking 10-year cycle is obvious and needs no elucidation. Clarification is needed, however, within the scope of the Kress cycles to tell us what we can expect from the market from now until year's end based on cyclical comparisons.

The year 1979 is the closest parallel to 2009. The 6-year cycle bottomed in 1978 which meant the stock market had the benefit of a newly rising 6-year cycle in 1979.

[Frantzie]

What is this? A cycle on commodities?

[petercooper]

Stocks. Samuel Kress has been pretty accurate.

[h20skier66]

The Kress cycle very simply is a way to try and anticipate patterns within data sets. Some use Kress cycles to analyze the financial markets and believe (based on math sequences) that some insight into direction can be found. This particular article is talking in broad terms about the overall equities markets and not specifically commodities. Clif Droke is one of the leading authors on the idea and more of his work can be found via google searches.

[petercooper]

http://www.clifdroke.com/

[Frantzie]

Thanks. I have been looking at some of the demographic cycles by Harry Dent and Strauss & Howe (The Fourth Turning).

What is Kress or Droke thinking about equities? I see no reason to be bullish until we see signs that the Dems are going to get thrown out of office.

[ClearCase_guy]

I'm not familiar with Kress cycles, but apparently the last "hard down" coincided roughly with the recession of 1893. I imagine a case could be made that the Progressive Era largely grew out of that and that the US made a fundamental move in the wrong direction at that time.

Perhaps the next four years will inaugurate a era where people decide that government is NOT the solution to all problems. I'm not optimistic, but I'll hope for a major turning point in our political history.

[Vasilli22]

bfl

[Frantzie]

Anybody have Cliff’s book on Moving Averages? Looks like a good one. The most basic and probably most useful indicator.

[whiterhino]

Bump for the cycle...

[numberonepal]

The Kress cycle very simply is a way to try and anticipate patterns within data sets.

Sounds like Baccarat.