Posted on 07/08/2009 8:49:15 PM PDT by bruinbirdman
Port statistics are revealing. They were a leading indicator before the production collapse in the Japan, Europe, and the US over the winter, and they may be telling us something again.
Amrita Sen at Barclays Capital says the number of Baltic Dry ships waiting to berth — mostly in China and Australia — has begun to fall after peaking at 154 in mid-June.
The Capesize Iron Ore Port Congestion Index (a new one for me, I must confess) is replicating the pattern seen a year ago just before the commodity boom tipped over.
“The anecdotal evidence we are hearing is that vessel queues have been falling. There are reports of cancelled tonnage from China pointing to a slowdown in Chinese buying of coal and iron ore.
“We are definitely expecting a correction. People have been building stocks of iron ore too quickly in anticipation of the stimulus package in China,” she said.
The Baltic Dry Index measuring freight rates jumped 450pc in the first half of the year on the China rebound, but has begun to fall back over the last two weeks. (Sen doubts freight rates will recover much since 1000 new ships are hitting the market this year and again next year, compared to 300 in normal years. There is obviously a horrendous shipping glut).
Over at Naked Capitalism they are reporting that international port traffic for containers (ie finished goods) is as dire as ever. The rates for 40-foot container from Asia and America’s West have actually fallen this year from $1,400 to $920.
“There has never been a decline like this before,” said Neil Drecker from the Drewry Report. “The container industry is looking at a $20-billion black hole of losses. We can expect a lot of casualties.”
As readers can guess, I remain extremely sceptical
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.telegraph.co.uk ...
Time to bailout big shipping!
We can give them $100,000,000,000 to carry our Treasury bonds to China!
The "W" is coming, as I expected.
The Baltic Dry Shipping Index. One of my favorites.
Tremendous information here and especially at the link. Read some of the comments. Earth-shattering it is and well-documented. Wow...and most Americans have no clue as to what is about to happen. The party is definitely over.
The end of the recession will merely be the start of a long, painful journey, says Edmund Conway.
By Edmund Conway
Published: 5:29PM BST 08 Jul 2009
It will be a long wait for the real recovery Photo: Getty It's a game of far more than two halves: more tactical than cricket, more stomach-churning than boxing and more complex than bridge. Throughout a magnificent summer of sport, one competition has lasted longer than any other, and generated the most heated debate. Its goal? To guess when the recession will end.
Every week, it seems, has brought new economic indicators, good or bad. Indeed, the whole thing has recently descended into farce: first, economists were tripping over themselves to declare that we were heading for a "V-shaped" recovery, in which we soared out of the downturn at speed. Then they realised that the economy had contracted in the first three months of the year at the fastest rate since, most probably, the 1930s (the quarterly figures don't go back that far), and started talking about "double dips".
In fact, from a technical point of view, we are close to the end of the recession, in that economic growth is probably stagnating rather than shrinking. But this misses the fundamental issue: this recession was unlike any we've experienced since the Second World War. All the old yardsticks – those that measure economic expansion or contraction, for instance – are of limited use.
[snip]
Good. The sooner we take our medicine, the better.
Just keep track of your nearby train depot, and notice the amount of cars sitting idle. They are growing.
"W" is sharp down, up,down, then up to starting point. What time frame are you looking at? Because that would put the Dow back at 6500 in 3 months but at 14K in 18? What high are you using for the start of the first down leg oft the W?
yitbos
yitbos
AEP: "I remain extremely sceptical of this commodity rally (although it was to be expected as part of the inventory restocking effect). It is not underpinned by real global demand."
" Read some of the comments. Earth-shattering it is and well-documented. "
This is AEP's blog. He has quite the erudite following.
yitbos
well, is it going to be deflation or inflation?......
Individual stock picking for risk capital only will be the key. Cash is king to sweep in for the rare value.
Otherwise, the traders are just playing with their own money. Pity those who have to use institutionals.
yitbos
By Puru Saxena
07/08/09 Hong Kong, China
At present, the investment community is divided as to whether the world economy faces hyperinflation or deflation. Some observers are convinced that the central banks’ printing press will take the world towards hyperinflation whereas others believe that the ongoing contraction in American private-sector debt will result in outright deflation. So, what will the future bring?
It is my contention that we will get neither hyperinflation nor deflation.
What is more likely is that over the coming months, we will get another deflationary scare. Any sell-off in the markets later this year will be met by an even larger stimulus from the policymakers and this will ultimately result in high inflation.
[snip]
Hypeinflation....
Hyperinflation....
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