Posted on 05/05/2009 7:42:59 PM PDT by Kevmo
Intrade now has a live initiative wherein the person who wants a contract listed can send them $100 to open a market and if there's enough trading activity, the person will get their money back and possibly even make a percentage off the trades.
I would like to open a contract on the Birth Certificate controversy, but I don't know what milestone to use or what would generate the most interest -- most intraders are very liberal and think I'm a crackpot, but they're not likely to put their money down against Obama stonewalling the birth certificate. What would be the best contract for my $100?
Below is the correspondence that generated this suggestion.
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/3544.page
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jackwest wrote:
Hello,
One of my suggestions to help ensure volume is that the market originators or a group of them, make a deposit on the market, such as $100 dollars. This is kept by intrade against fees made from trading. If no trading occurs, originators lose their $100 to intrade, while if sufficient volume occurs originators will get this back and a successful market may be born.
The disciplining effect of such a system is obvious against frivolous suggestions while the deposit still being small enough for any reasonable trader to create a market. Its possible the fee payout may be even greater than 1x, or to give market designers a small commission.
Surely this will attract professionals from across the internet, a vaster resource than set employees who have other responsibilities. This may even encourage evangelistism for intrade.
I don't understand why control over these markets will be so essential, as long as intrade's obligations and what it will do are clearly defined it will be the users responsibility in trading etc.
Jackwest,
We like this idea. And have tested it on folks who have suggested markets in the past to little take up.
Lets run a poll on it and see.
Thanks for the suggestion.
John Delaney
http://www.intrade.com/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/list/3544.page
This initiative is now live!
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/3544.page
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$25,000,000 Reward Offered to Barack Hussein Obama to Produce His Real Long-Form Birth Certificate
http://www.rewardforobamasbirthcertificate.com/
This is perfect timing. Where do I send in my $100 to get a market made for this contract? The wording would be whether or not this particular reward gets paid out. Pretty simple.
Subject: Re:$100 To Get "Your" Market Listed - Get 25% of Fees Generated
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/3544.page ko
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29/04/2009 05:42:04 Subject: Re:Possibly Forged Obama Birth Certificate I would sell short any REWARDFOROBAMASBIRTHCERTIFICATE.PAYOUT.$25MM.2009 that you would buy.
Who are "The owners of this website"? What is the likelyhood that they have the abilty to raise the $25MM? And who are the "document experts [that] can prove the validity of the document." ???
Its more likely that Obama was born as a Kenyan citizen in Canada, has an Indonesian passport and eats babies, than anyone ever pays anyone else $25MM for a birth certificate.
Sincerely,
Bogus
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I think you're right. I read on FR that the money is not in place, that it is just a ploy. But I'm heartened that a contract can be written regarding the BC issue. All of the best action and datapoints are in the past, so it's difficult to come up with some milestone.
ko
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STILL pushing this story, ko? Don't worry, I'm sure there will be a breakthrough soon
katman
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04/05/2009 02:26:10 Subject: Re:Possibly Forged Obama Birth Certificate
I think this story is dying. I am interested in setting up some kind of contract to trade on, but I'm at a loss as to what would generate interest. Maybe something like "Obama Stonewalls" on the long-form vault copy of the BC. It would pay out at 100 if he hasn't produced it by a certain date.
ko
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links:
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/3544.page
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/690/2279.page
ping for use later...
for your various CertifiGate ping lists
The metric that might best build a book on both sides of the trade might be "will Obama ever be required in a US court to submit evidence as to whether he is a natural born citizen within the meaning of the Constitution?"
That sounds smart. Thanks.
The event to watch for is the instigation of a criminal case or punative damages case which would bring about a discovery phase in the legal proceeding. THAT will get plenty of betting that it will happen soon, but the natural action will never happen while Obowma is in office because he could not last through the discovery of his forgeries and criminal behaviors.
Nah, too unlikely to happen. Wouldn’t a metric such as Before 2012, Obama will be subject to a Judge’s order requiring disclosure of a “vault” copy of his original birth certificate.
Yours is good as well. I think it might be slightly better because it says nothing about whether zer0bama would produce it.
An interesting scenario would be where the payout becomes so disparate that it works as a bounty like incentive for some enterprising attorneys to forum shop a judge that would sign such an order(even though it may be likely that he is overturned). It might happen at the State level difficult to get it done at the Federal level.
Before you do it you should 1. get x number of freepers to take a position. 2. Prepare a press release 3. Promote the hell out of it.
Or perhaps a criminal case that is accepted by the Supreme Court. Supreme Court justices are human, not totally impartial. If they feel the foundations of the Republic beginning to crumble, will they not act?
If there was that much interest in the contract, I’d be pleased as punch. I know that if we could have had the contracts written earlier, the interest was there during the campaign and there were some obvious milestones. But it’s difficult to tell if there’s any interest remaining in this issue.
If they feel the foundations of the Republic beginning to crumble, will they not act?
***There were multiple cases before the SCOTUS at the time of the election and they failed to act. The foundations of the Republic were crumbling and they chose to perceive it as hiccups from a nearby horse.
Roberts is complicit in the scam. Don’t expect his court to open its ears.
Ooooh, good one!
Could you write a better contract that would attract volume?
The only indicator I have that there’s interest is that the forum topic I introduced over at Intrade has attracted 3X to 4X as many hits as the next biggest topic. It is by far most discussed topic in Intrade’s history.
In the case of certifigate, the extent of that disagreement is minimal. Anyone who's sane knows there's nothing to this certifigate nonesense. Only a tiny lunatic fringe would assign any value at all to it. I seriously doubt there's enough of them willing to risk capital to generate volume. The price would stay just slightly above zero, just enough to allow transactions costs to keep the sane people from slapping it down to zero.
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