Obama’s Coming War (Blog Vanity)

Beyond the Cusp ^ | April 6, 2009 | Beyond the Cusp

[bsaunders]

The first step to figuring where and how we will end up in a war due to the actions and/or lack of actions taken by President Barack Obama is to look at some of the ways wars start from past examples. Wars start in a number of circumstances and motivations. Perhaps a list of some of the most obvious ones would be appropriate. Some wars start by over-reacting to a singular event. An example was WWI, which started by a spiral of events after the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia. What should have been nothing more than an assassination and a local event became a world-shaking event as treaties forced most of Europe to stand on one side or the other. The rest, as they say, is history.

Wars can be started by the desire by one country’s leadership having designs to expand their influence and spread their political and social concepts, usually with designs to force the entire world to come under their control. The obvious example of this was the European theater of WWII. On the other hand is war simply to expand the wealth and resources controlled by the initiating country. This was the motivation behind the Japanese theater of WWII where Japan had part of their motivation to bring resources under their control rather than having to depend on trade. There was more than this to each of these conflicts, but this oversimplification will work as a set of examples.

Countries often go to war to rectify what they perceive to be an injustice. Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait under the guise that Kuwait was actually a lost province that belonged to Iraq. There are potential scenarios for future conflicts due to China’s claim to Taiwan; Iran's claim to Bahrain, India and Pakistan both claiming the areas that were once known as Kashmir, and North Korea under the motivation of reuniting the Korean peninsula. The major example that has been in constant conflict for over a half century has been the existence of Israel on lands that the Muslim World claim as rightfully theirs and thus call for the eradication of the State of Israel and the mass murder of the entire Jewish population of Israel.

There are also wars started for liberation from a mother country or occupying source or other similarly motivated scenarios. The examples of this through history are numerous. But what will force the United States into a state of war due to President Obama’s actions or lack thereof? Another recipe for war begins with any of the above scenarios, or combination of scenarios, and the perpetrator being energized by the apparent weakness or seeming lack of convictions by their major opponent. This is where we face a real problem. President Obama has made clear his pacifistic philosophy and its influence on policy. All appearances are that there is nothing that would push President Obama to use military force if an avenue of negotiations is also seemingly available. So, the secret is to leave the door open for negotiations and diplomacy while taking small steps towards one’s goals. So, how would this work?

It would not work for either China taking Taiwan or North Korea attacking South Korea. But this might be possible for Iran to make sizable gains in their agenda. We must also remember that not all wars are hot wars, there is cold warfare, and soft warfare where one forces a situation to gain the concession to their demand without resorting to the use of violence. Much of this describes the desires of Iran, the broadening influence of the more extremist factions within Pakistan, and the influence expansion by groups such as Hezballah, Hamas, al-Queda, and other what we used to call extremist or fascist Islamic forces. There is no way that the Obama Administration would interfere should the Taliban take control of Pakistan or if Iranian backed militias were to influence an election in Iraq such that Iranian controlled people took over the Iraqi government. What action does anybody believe President Obama would take should Muslim extremists, under whatever new name they have been given to soften our language, toppled the Saudi Arabian royal family and replaced it with a fundamental Islamic government? I do not see anything being done and probably a large aid bill passed to support the change by President Obama. I fully believe that Bahrain is living on shaky ground if they are relying on their neighbors or the West to prevent Iran reclaiming their small island nation.

What I see happening is after many of the small steps are taken by Iran to expand their control over much of the Middle East, especially the oil producing areas, after they have attained the cloak of protection they feel having nuclear weapons will bestow, then they might make a bolder move such as a WMD attack on Israel or sponsor a WND terror strike in Europe or the United States. At some point the United States and Europe would have little choice once Iran cuts off the oil supply from the Middle East. Further, should Iran move too far too fast, would President Obama be forced to honor treaties with Saudi Arabia or Egypt? What if Turkey should turn to the extreme side of Islam threatening expanding into Eastern Europe as they have tried before? Our current diddling with Iran and their nuclear weapons dreams will allow Iran’s dreams to become our nightmares, and possibly lead to a war that taking actions now could prevent. I can only hope that our inaction and weak leadership now does not produce a situation where the use of military force will be the final and sole choice. That will be the ultimate Bidden moment of challenging President Obama and a frightful outcome for the United States.

Beyond the Cusp

[bsaunders]

Thanks for reading.

[ßuddaßudd]

bookmark for tomorrow

[Forward the Light Brigade]

The weakness of Obama will cause people to try for adventurism. Such as:
1. South Africa to seize Zimbabwe
2. China to seize Taiwan after a “Crisis”
3. Russian to seize Crimea after a “Crisis” with Ukraine.
4. Venezuela to seize Aruba.
5. Russia to move on Georgia—take all of it this time.
6. China to seize the Islands off Viet Nam.
7. Iran to Take Bahrain after a “Crisis”
8. Iran to seize parts of Iraq after we leave.
9. Serbia to re-take Kosovo after a Crisis.
10. Spain to move on Gibraltar.
11. Iran to threaten Saudi Arabia.
12. Sudan to threaten Chad.
And the list goes on....

[zaphod3000]

Really like your list, though I have a few comments:

Unlikely (IMHO):
#1 (why would they want that problem?)
#4 (for the beaches?)
#7 (not while the Fifth Fleet homeports there)
#9 (Serbia wants to be in the EU, reclaiming Kosovo would stop that)
#10(I don’t see two NATO allies fighting)

Less Likely:
#3 (Unless NATO/US extends an informal shield)
#5 (ditto)
#8 (More likely that Iraq & Iran informally merge)

Interesting scenario (but still less likely) combining #2 & #6:

These two items got me thinking: The Chinese seize the Spratly Islands without US interference (we really don’t have a dog in that fight). China is then enboldened to go after Taiwan. However, defense of Taiwan would become a issue in US politics, thereby requiring a response. Because the Chinese launch missiles from their coast, we attack the mainland. This leads to unrest in a number of friendly countries with large overseas Chinese populations (Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia (total OC population approx. 21 million). Fighting (mostly US Navy units) quickly escalates until shipborne nuclear weapons become the only option.

More Likely:
But the real nightmare scenario is Korea. IMHO, I think we will see another Korean War before 2016. Given the declining health of the Dear Leader, I see the following: the DL dies. There is a sucession crisis—his youngest son is supposedly his designated successor, but has not held any major posts.

A collective military leadership appears, but those left out decide to stage a coup. Military units divide, and one or more rogue commanders attack South Korea to gain some advantage. Given the reduced number of US troops in SK (currently about 28,500, in addition to the 680,000 South Korean military), they are quickly overwhelmed. Nuclear weapons again become the only option to stop total collapse.

Food for thought.

[Forward the Light Brigade]

Yes, its a big bad world out there and with all the civil wars, hate between peoples and greed war looks very possible. If we do not watch out something that starts small could grow into a regional then global conflict. America, if seen as a weak state ran by a coward, could invite such things. I see hot spots in Asia (Korea), Africa (Congo-Zimbabwe) South America (Columbia) and even Europe (Expansionist Russia)and others could flair up almost anywhere.