The weakness of Obama will cause people to try for adventurism. Such as:
1. South Africa to seize Zimbabwe
2. China to seize Taiwan after a “Crisis”
3. Russian to seize Crimea after a “Crisis” with Ukraine.
4. Venezuela to seize Aruba.
5. Russia to move on Georgia—take all of it this time.
6. China to seize the Islands off Viet Nam.
7. Iran to Take Bahrain after a “Crisis”
8. Iran to seize parts of Iraq after we leave.
9. Serbia to re-take Kosovo after a Crisis.
10. Spain to move on Gibraltar.
11. Iran to threaten Saudi Arabia.
12. Sudan to threaten Chad.
And the list goes on....
Really like your list, though I have a few comments:
Unlikely (IMHO):
#1 (why would they want that problem?)
#4 (for the beaches?)
#7 (not while the Fifth Fleet homeports there)
#9 (Serbia wants to be in the EU, reclaiming Kosovo would stop that)
#10(I don’t see two NATO allies fighting)
Less Likely:
#3 (Unless NATO/US extends an informal shield)
#5 (ditto)
#8 (More likely that Iraq & Iran informally merge)
Interesting scenario (but still less likely) combining #2 & #6:
These two items got me thinking: The Chinese seize the Spratly Islands without US interference (we really don’t have a dog in that fight). China is then enboldened to go after Taiwan. However, defense of Taiwan would become a issue in US politics, thereby requiring a response. Because the Chinese launch missiles from their coast, we attack the mainland. This leads to unrest in a number of friendly countries with large overseas Chinese populations (Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia (total OC population approx. 21 million). Fighting (mostly US Navy units) quickly escalates until shipborne nuclear weapons become the only option.
More Likely:
But the real nightmare scenario is Korea. IMHO, I think we will see another Korean War before 2016. Given the declining health of the Dear Leader, I see the following: the DL dies. There is a sucession crisis—his youngest son is supposedly his designated successor, but has not held any major posts.
A collective military leadership appears, but those left out decide to stage a coup. Military units divide, and one or more rogue commanders attack South Korea to gain some advantage. Given the reduced number of US troops in SK (currently about 28,500, in addition to the 680,000 South Korean military), they are quickly overwhelmed. Nuclear weapons again become the only option to stop total collapse.
Food for thought.