Really like your list, though I have a few comments:
Unlikely (IMHO):
#1 (why would they want that problem?)
#4 (for the beaches?)
#7 (not while the Fifth Fleet homeports there)
#9 (Serbia wants to be in the EU, reclaiming Kosovo would stop that)
#10(I don’t see two NATO allies fighting)
Less Likely:
#3 (Unless NATO/US extends an informal shield)
#5 (ditto)
#8 (More likely that Iraq & Iran informally merge)
Interesting scenario (but still less likely) combining #2 & #6:
These two items got me thinking: The Chinese seize the Spratly Islands without US interference (we really don’t have a dog in that fight). China is then enboldened to go after Taiwan. However, defense of Taiwan would become a issue in US politics, thereby requiring a response. Because the Chinese launch missiles from their coast, we attack the mainland. This leads to unrest in a number of friendly countries with large overseas Chinese populations (Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia (total OC population approx. 21 million). Fighting (mostly US Navy units) quickly escalates until shipborne nuclear weapons become the only option.
More Likely:
But the real nightmare scenario is Korea. IMHO, I think we will see another Korean War before 2016. Given the declining health of the Dear Leader, I see the following: the DL dies. There is a sucession crisis—his youngest son is supposedly his designated successor, but has not held any major posts.
A collective military leadership appears, but those left out decide to stage a coup. Military units divide, and one or more rogue commanders attack South Korea to gain some advantage. Given the reduced number of US troops in SK (currently about 28,500, in addition to the 680,000 South Korean military), they are quickly overwhelmed. Nuclear weapons again become the only option to stop total collapse.
Food for thought.
Yes, its a big bad world out there and with all the civil wars, hate between peoples and greed war looks very possible. If we do not watch out something that starts small could grow into a regional then global conflict. America, if seen as a weak state ran by a coward, could invite such things. I see hot spots in Asia (Korea), Africa (Congo-Zimbabwe) South America (Columbia) and even Europe (Expansionist Russia)and others could flair up almost anywhere.