U.S. Must Be Cut Loose

12-28-08 | gpk9

[gpk9]

Christmas retail sales are confirming what "gloom-and-doomers" have been saying all year: Consumer demand is falling off a cliff. It's in free-fall. The bottom will eventually be hit, but it won't be a trampoline-bounce back up. It will be death on the rocks.

70% of our economy is consumer demand. When consumer demand dries up, the economy crashes.

Why is consumer demand drying up?

1) Massive consumer short-term unsecured debt.

In the 2002 - 2007 credit bubble, consumers collectively pushed credit card balances over the 14 TRILLION dollar mark.

That massive amount of debt simply cannot be paid off. Credit card companies are realizing this, and have kicked interest rates to dizzying heights, and / or simply turned off many people's credit cards.

2) Massive consumer long-term secured debt.

Consumers have bought more home than they can pay for. That was made possible by insanely-loose lending policies of our government, together with insanely-low interest rates set by the Fed. The result has been a 5-year orgy of home buying, bidding up home prices to insanely-high levels.

The 5-year credit bubble has popped ...as smart people knew it would.

Those insanely-loose lending practices have suddenly vanished, leaving consumers in the frightening position of approaching variable rate jumps with no way to re-finance at lower rates. Unprecedented numbers of people are going to find themselves in mortgage default in the months ahead, leading to an unprecedented number of homes being given back to banks, and a near-collapse of home prices.

Those insanely-low interest rates are dropping even lower, but hardly anyone has credit-worthiness to borrow money due to the massive debt-load they're already carrying, along with home prices dropping like a rock.

On top of that, banks are absolutely TERRIFIED! They have stopped lending money for all practical purposes. Even with TRILLIONS of new dollars created out of thin air by the Fed being handed to them on a silver platter, building their cash reserves to all-time highs, banks are STILL terrified, and STILL not lending money.

The T.E.D. spread is down significantly in recent weeks, but that reflects the rate banks charge to each other. With cash reserves built back up to all-time highs in recent weeks, banks feel more comfortable about lending to each other, but they are STILL NOT lending to consumers and businesses.

3) Unprecedented job losses.

One component of credit-worthiness is job stability. The likelihood of having a job long-term. That likelihood is vanishing as hundreds of thousands of jobs are being liquidated by companies seeing terrifying drops in sales and revenue. The automobile market, a classic indicator of consumer demand, is literally collapsing. New car sales across the board are down 35% in November alone, three months into a new model-year. That is near-collapse of new car sales, and will be the last-straw for the big 3. The end. All 3 of the big three are going into bankruptcy, regardless of $15 billion or $34 billion or however many billions are thrown at them by the Fed.

That same story or something close to it is happening to companies in all sectors of the economy, resulting in hundreds of thousands of more jobs being liquidated in the months ahead.

Even utilities, electric, gas, water, etc are liquidating jobs as revenue drops and dis-connects rocket to record highs in the past three months.

Banks know this. They are keenly aware of it. That is one reason they are terrified and not lending money to consumers.

They're also not lending money to businesses, those same businesses seeing terrifying drops in sales. Aside from the collapse of short-term business financing, bank letters of credit, a critical component in movement of goods and commodities within America and between other countries (like China), are simply not being issued now, resulting in a near freeze-up of large-load shipping within America and worldwide.

If collapsing consumer demand was the only problem, all we would have is a depression, a deep depression.

But collapsing consumer demand isn't the only problem. The value of the dollar is collapsing as well.

The trillions of dollars being created out of thin air by the Fed and being thrown at any and everybody in their terrified attempts to prevent an economic collapse are creating hyperinflation of the money supply at a rate unprecedented in history and leading to a soon-coming monetary collapse.

Other nations see it, are becoming terrified themselves, and are moving swiftly to unload their dollar holdings before the dollar becomes worthless.

On top of that the IMF is now proposing plans to cut the dollar loose as the world reserve currency. Once that happens the dollar is finished. It's over. People will literally start using dollars to wipe their butt. Any dollar-denominated holdings and investments will instantly become near-worthless. 401ks. IRAs. Money market accounts. Bonds. You name it. It will happen almost overnight.

We are going into a hyperinflationary depression the scale of which has never occurred in history. It will be the final undoing of America. The mighty America, bastion of liberty and freedom for 250 years, is coming down to it's knees thanks to insane levels of financial greed, something our forefathers never thought would or could happen.

Other nations are seeing it unfold right before their eyes, the huge beautiful Titanic christened "America" with the gaping financial hole in our side, are absolutely terrified, and are making all haste to cut the lines before we drag them under also.

We have been warned, by credible people in the know, one of them being our new vice-president, of a major calamity hitting America in the first few days of Obama's presidency, but no one, not even those making said warning, are saying what it is.

They undoubtedly know what it is because they are giving exact dates.

In a larger sense, '09 is going to be year the Titanic-christened-America sank. Our government-captain and officers are watching their nation-ship sink beneath their feet as they encourage the band to keep playing.

As with the real Titanic, there aren't enough lifeboats to go around.

As with the real Titanic, only the elite will be in them.

Unlike the real Titanic, the captain and officers will be in the lifeboats too, watching along with their elite friends in morbid silence as the rest of us freeze to death in the frigid waters of financial ruin, or go down locked deep in the bowels of the ship as they take one last look at the keys, then toss them overboard.

It's not a perfect analogy. America won't cease to exist. Something will rise out of the depths eventually.

But it very likely won't be America any longer. Maybe in form, but certainly not in substance.

[expat_panama]

"...you didn't present any argument against my comment. "

Let me know if any possible argument exists that you might be willing to consider.

"...our trading partners do most of the manufacturing..."

fwiw, over the past 25 years America's industrial output has doubled while our real incomes have tripled.   Now, while these reference links are easy enough to share, if you're like most people you won't want even look at the tallies and headcounts unless you were paid to.  At least that was my case --running my family business goes a lot better once I force myself to really check this stuff out.

[Mase]

You would have me believe that no-one can predict economic changes better than others can?

That's not what I said but why stop you when you're on a roll?

Why was I among the few of my friends and co-workers to see the oncoming collapse of the NASDAQ bubble? Why was I among the few of my friends and co-workers to see the oncoming collapse of the housing bubble? Their predictive powers were non-existent. All they could do was extrapolate a current trend to infinity. Yet I was able to see both bubbles.

You're truly amazing. Does this ability of yours absolve you of any responsibility for backing up what you say? In post #45 you dismiss everything that is written in post #24 by telling the writer he has a lot to learn about this economic crisis. Learn what exactly? You don't elaborate. Should we just trust you or else we'll all end up learning the hard way? Uh, ok. Sure.

Spare us the sanctimony will ya.

[familyop]

From the US Business and Industry Council:
http://www.americaneconomicalert.org/view_art.asp?Prod_ID=3061

The Decline of American Manufacturing: Manufacturing and Service Wages Converge Downward
Alan Tonelson
Tuesday, October 07, 2008

U.S. WAGE TRENDS

Average hourly manufacturing wage, August, 2008: $8.00* ** ***

Average private service sector wage, August, 2008: $8.03

Last time average private service wages exceeded manufacturing wages: May, 1974

Change in average real private service wage, May, 1974 to present: –4.97%

Change in average real manufacturing wage, May, 1974 to present: –5.38%

* Measured in 1982 dollars

** All wage figures seasonally adjusted

*** Both August figures preliminary

Source: Calculated from “Multi-screen Data Search, Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey,” Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv?ce

Alan Tonelson is a Research Fellow at the U.S. Business & Industry Educational Foundation and the author of The Race to the Bottom: Why a Worldwide Worker Surplus and Uncontrolled Free Trade are Sinking American Living Standards (Westview Press).

[Mase]

It appears that lack of credibility is getting in the way of arguments.

So do American companies manufacturing abroad get counted in the GDP?

The trade deficits are common knowledge. We know by our nearly exclusively non-American choices in products, when we buy.

LOL! A trade deficit means we don't make nothin' here no more? Does the chart below prove that our choices are nearly exclusively non-American?

Last year, IIRC, we manufactured more than China and Japan combined. Now if you don't have any stats breaking down how much American companies make here vs. foreign companies just say so. If our imports are so overwhelming, how is it that our GDP continues to set new records? Of course, you could always look at the GNP figures to find out how much our country's citizens produce vs. foreigners. Those numbers aren't all that different from our GDP numbers.

You'd probably also be surprised to know that our GDP, employment and manufacturing expands the most when our trade deficit is growing. Our trade deficit shrinks during periods of recessions. As a matter of fact, the last trade surplus we had was during a recession. Japan regularly runs huge trade deficits but has experienced deflation and recession of the past 18 years. But they do have a trade surplus!

But most slave masters have disregarded the good Law on how to treat slaves.

But they do get paid, right?

The clients don't care as to how much they pay, but they are lazy, rude, insulting, whiny creatures. It's all about the vanities of our business leaders--not so much about money. There's no legal remedy, as we are seeing current labor policy in action.

Like most people in China, you also have the right to go work someplace else if you don't like your working conditions or pay. If, even under these circumstances, you cannot manage to find alternative work then you should be looking within when assigning blame, not without. Slaves do not have this luxury.

I'm just making sure that guilty merchants, importers, foreign slave buyers and their political puppets don't succeed in turning other American groups against one another again.

And you do this by picking frozen rocky clay for $10 an hour?

It's the traitorous, organized crime bosses who are paid for cheating America and building their dictators' nations.

Maybe these exploited workers should have studied harder in school or developed more marketable skills. Life's hard when you're uneducated and without skills. Always has been, always will be.

[familyop]

There are ways to see the truth behind the trans-shipping skews.

U.S. Trade Flows
Alan Tonelson
Monday, February 27, 2006

The most competitive economy in the....(cont’d)

Ratio of U.S. manufactures imports to U.S. manufactures exports, 2000: 1.62:1

Ratio of U.S. manufactures imports to U.S. manufactures exports, 2005: 1.88:1

Growth of U.S. manufactures exports, 2000-2005: 9.45%

Growth of U.S. manufactures imports, 2000-2005: 27.18%

Sources: Calculated from “Part B: Not Seasonally Adjusted. Exports and Imports of Goods by Principal SITC Commodities,” Foreign Trade Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, Dec. 2005 and Dec. 2001 tables, http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/exh15.pdf
and http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/2001pr/12/exh15.pdf

From the US Business & Industry Council
http://www.americaneconomicalert.org/view_art.asp?Prod_ID=2358

[familyop]

"And you do this by picking frozen rocky clay for $10 an hour?...Maybe these exploited workers should have studied harder in school or developed more marketable skills. Life's hard when you're uneducated and without skills. Always has been, always will be."

I have various extensive technical skills, for those who aren't too vain, envious and sexually confused to watch a family man at work. :-)

[familyop]

Is U.S. High-Tech Manufacturing as Sick as U.S. Finance?
Alan Tonelson
Tuesday, December 02, 2008

GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY TRENDS

Estimated global consumer electronics products revenue, 2008: $223 billion

Estimated North American share of this revenue: 4%

Estimated North and Southeast Asian share of this revenue: 49%

Estimated global computer hardware revenue, 2008: $514 billion

Estimated North American share of this revenue: 12%

Estimated North and Southeast Asian share of this revenue: 64%

Source: “Outsourcing Tech Manufacturing May Hurt U.S. Firms’ Innovation,” by Patrick Seitz, Investor’s Business Daily, December 2, 2008, p. A01

From the US Business & Industry Council
http://www.americaneconomicalert.org/view_art.asp?Prod_ID=3084

[familyop]

On Chinese vs. US manufacturing,...

Revised Forecast Advances Date of China Becoming the Preeminent Global Manufacturer
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2155973/posts

[Freedom_Is_Not_Free]

Apologies to you and to america-rules, as I have a bit of a hair trigger these days, born of frustration.

america-rules stated that 95% of people are getting credit and it is flowing fine. He said, the sky is not falling and 90% of people are doing fine and unaffected.

I read his post to mean that that this is a typical recession and most people will experience the typical problems for the typical timeframe. Maybe he didn’t mean that, and maybe he did, but that is how I took it.

By saying, “you will learn the hard way” I meant that this recession is going to be very long and deep and I merely meant that by the time we worked through this very deep recession, he would learn by having suffered through it that this is NOT going to be a typical 18 month recession with the nice recovery afterward.

Later, you seemed to be cavalier in dismissing “doom” as if you also do not believe this will be an unusually long and deep recession. My reply to your post came from your dismissing the people who have actually predicted this crisis. They saw the structural problems in finance and the FIRE economy and they saw the coming deleveraging and its impact on GDP, unemployment, bank closings and business bankruptcies. I have become overly sensitive to people who still want to pretend that “all is well” and that this recession will be a garden variety recession. I am overly sensitive to this, because I have studied enough to know that this will be a long, deep, severe recession, and I get very frustrated communicating with a parade of people who get all their financial knowledge from Rush “I refuse to participate in a recession” Limbaugh, and the like.

If I over-reacted, and undeservedly branded you and america-rules as among those people who think the recession is almost over and things are fine and credit is flowing and business will recover in 2009, then my apologies.

If on the other hand, you and america-rules are in fact among those who think all this gloomy news is nothing but a false crisis by the MSM to paint Bush in a bad light, or to depress the economy until Obama can come in and look like he saved the economy, then I meant quite literally “you will learn the hard way.” Because those people who think this is a manufactured crisis or who think this recession is the typical 18-month 7% unemployment with a quick recovery, are in for a rude awakening when the economy still sucks in 2012.

For evidence, I don’t remember cities going bankrupt back in prior recessions. I don’t remember Japanese auto sales dropping 40% in prior recessions. I don’t remember the entire investment banking sector imploding in prior recessions. I don’t remember entire states being on the verge of bankruptcy in prior recessions.

So that is what I meant when I said, “you will learn the hard way”. You and america-rules (and it seems the vast majority of people who post here) seemed to be among the large majority here who thinks things are generally fine and this will be a typical, normal recession after which we get back to usual business in short order — back to buying luxury cars, and houses, and timeshare condominiums.

I beg to differ. We are heading for some really hard times, hence my statement to those who don’t believe that, “you will learn the hard way”.

This is off the topic, but...

One of the greater forms of hardship is being fired or laid off and having no means of support. I am beginning to think that many Freepers are retirees who don’t rely on a job. So when a severe downturn occurs that threatens job loss and pay reductions, I think we have many people here who don’t feel affected by it since they have no job to lose. My point of view is a bit of a broad brush, but the reaction by so many here that everything is mostly fine in the economy is so baffling, I can’t but wonder how many people here are immune from the immediate effects of a severe financial downturn because they are living on a pension or on a nice nest egg that doesn’t effect them when bankruptcies, business closures, and layoffs occur.

[expat_panama]

"From the US Business and Industry Council:   The Decline of American Manufacturing..."

Hey guy, we can't run a business on that kind of stuff.  I mean, nobody here's about to start manufacturing say, sackcloth and ashes because the doom sector just isn't there. 

OK, USBIC drivel is great for parties and threads like this, but serious stuff like earning a living means hard facts: headcounts, bank tallies, shipping manifests.  Maybe years ago nobody had access that this kind of stuff, but now we got no excuses.

[expat_panama]

For evidence, I don’t remember cities going bankrupt back in prior recessions. I don’t remember...

Not remembering never worked well for me as 'evidence' but rather a good reason to dig out the actual records and find out.  These days the records are easy to get to and we're willing to share what we've come across, but it seems most avoid facts and believe the worst. 

Don't get me wrong, I know how it feels to loose a job and wonder how the wife and kids are going to eat, but while everyone's got a sad story there are some of us won't wear it on our shirts even when it is the current fashion trend.   This all has gotten to be some kind of friggin' misery fest that guys like Obama are cashing in on.  

All Hail the Whiner-in-Chief!

[Freedom_Is_Not_Free]

No, not a misery fest, but a warning. Most won’t heed it.

[familyop]

"But they do get paid, right?"

BTW, they don't always get paid. They are explicitly required to show up at the specified time to wait in the employers' offices for up to three hours each day (for jobs with clients) without pay. And there's no enforcement against the violation, because that's part our current merchant/importer/developer-driven national policy. Also...no breaks, physical threats and other, more serious illegal activities perpetrated by various employers.