That's not what I said but why stop you when you're on a roll?
Why was I among the few of my friends and co-workers to see the oncoming collapse of the NASDAQ bubble? Why was I among the few of my friends and co-workers to see the oncoming collapse of the housing bubble? Their predictive powers were non-existent. All they could do was extrapolate a current trend to infinity. Yet I was able to see both bubbles.
You're truly amazing. Does this ability of yours absolve you of any responsibility for backing up what you say? In post #45 you dismiss everything that is written in post #24 by telling the writer he has a lot to learn about this economic crisis. Learn what exactly? You don't elaborate. Should we just trust you or else we'll all end up learning the hard way? Uh, ok. Sure.
Spare us the sanctimony will ya.
Apologies to you and to america-rules, as I have a bit of a hair trigger these days, born of frustration.
america-rules stated that 95% of people are getting credit and it is flowing fine. He said, the sky is not falling and 90% of people are doing fine and unaffected.
I read his post to mean that that this is a typical recession and most people will experience the typical problems for the typical timeframe. Maybe he didn’t mean that, and maybe he did, but that is how I took it.
By saying, “you will learn the hard way” I meant that this recession is going to be very long and deep and I merely meant that by the time we worked through this very deep recession, he would learn by having suffered through it that this is NOT going to be a typical 18 month recession with the nice recovery afterward.
Later, you seemed to be cavalier in dismissing “doom” as if you also do not believe this will be an unusually long and deep recession. My reply to your post came from your dismissing the people who have actually predicted this crisis. They saw the structural problems in finance and the FIRE economy and they saw the coming deleveraging and its impact on GDP, unemployment, bank closings and business bankruptcies. I have become overly sensitive to people who still want to pretend that “all is well” and that this recession will be a garden variety recession. I am overly sensitive to this, because I have studied enough to know that this will be a long, deep, severe recession, and I get very frustrated communicating with a parade of people who get all their financial knowledge from Rush “I refuse to participate in a recession” Limbaugh, and the like.
If I over-reacted, and undeservedly branded you and america-rules as among those people who think the recession is almost over and things are fine and credit is flowing and business will recover in 2009, then my apologies.
If on the other hand, you and america-rules are in fact among those who think all this gloomy news is nothing but a false crisis by the MSM to paint Bush in a bad light, or to depress the economy until Obama can come in and look like he saved the economy, then I meant quite literally “you will learn the hard way.” Because those people who think this is a manufactured crisis or who think this recession is the typical 18-month 7% unemployment with a quick recovery, are in for a rude awakening when the economy still sucks in 2012.
For evidence, I don’t remember cities going bankrupt back in prior recessions. I don’t remember Japanese auto sales dropping 40% in prior recessions. I don’t remember the entire investment banking sector imploding in prior recessions. I don’t remember entire states being on the verge of bankruptcy in prior recessions.
So that is what I meant when I said, “you will learn the hard way”. You and america-rules (and it seems the vast majority of people who post here) seemed to be among the large majority here who thinks things are generally fine and this will be a typical, normal recession after which we get back to usual business in short order — back to buying luxury cars, and houses, and timeshare condominiums.
I beg to differ. We are heading for some really hard times, hence my statement to those who don’t believe that, “you will learn the hard way”.
This is off the topic, but...
One of the greater forms of hardship is being fired or laid off and having no means of support. I am beginning to think that many Freepers are retirees who don’t rely on a job. So when a severe downturn occurs that threatens job loss and pay reductions, I think we have many people here who don’t feel affected by it since they have no job to lose. My point of view is a bit of a broad brush, but the reaction by so many here that everything is mostly fine in the economy is so baffling, I can’t but wonder how many people here are immune from the immediate effects of a severe financial downturn because they are living on a pension or on a nice nest egg that doesn’t effect them when bankruptcies, business closures, and layoffs occur.