Posted on 09/08/2008 6:25:52 AM PDT by NYCFearsome
Massive swing in Mccain's favor...
(Excerpt) Read more at intrade.com ...
Democrats love to refer to intrade when its convenient. Intrade is never right until after the events have happened and in this case it doesn’t say much about the election, but McCain catching up is definitely an awesome sign.
WOW!
IMPRESSIVE!
Probably one of the more meaningful “polls” out there. Not definitive, by any means, because like any other poll, it can be skewed by an extraordinary influx that reflects more ambitious hope than real expectation.
The “Bradley effect” may be discounted in this instance. The bid has nothing to do with the performance in the voting booth, as there is no “exit poll” to lie about.
McCain 50.5
0bama 49.5
now
After I saw Sarah campaigning.
I cleaned up in 2004. I bought Bush right after Abu Gharib when he was like at around 20-30. I knew that Kerry wouldn’t have what it would take to win in the end.
If they were at 50/50 earlier, then things have gone back a little. This is a relatively high volume set of contracts, so the fact that 52 + 46 x= 100 shows some level of current indecision in the market for now. But it’s all good... this means there’s still a chance to take some of their money and support McCain/Palin at the same time. Win-win for us.
Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
2008.PRES.OBAMA
Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade 52.1 52.5 52.5 334520 -4.1
2008.PRES.McCAIN
John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade 46.1 47.5 46.1 465960 +2.6
Obama's team has been signing up new voter heavily in "Red States".
They are going for a reverse of 2000'.
Obama wins Electorally not Popular Vote.
There are some good opportunities on Intrade for savvy FReepers.
Biden is going to get “ill” or have some personal family issue arise. He will drop out (on a Friday after 5pm) - Hillary will anguish and on the following Tuesday (so as to not interrupt Monday Night Football) she will announce that she will accept that VP slot (there by voiding the decision of the delegates at the convention) and help out her good friend BO.
I sold Obambi short, which means I took the $61.90, (yesterday's price) and IF he wins I will be debited $100, for a net loss of $38.10. WHEN he loses, I will get to keep the $61.90 as profit, again, minus a small fee.
I think the idea behind these “events” gambling polls is that a lot of people have better information on certain kinds of events and they go and put their money behind it and that moves the odds. So if you are talking about the outcome of some legal matter, there will be people more knowledgeable on the subject than the general public and they will be willing to put money behind their belief.
I don’t think a general election event fits that model unless it was the pollsters doing the gambling.
Having said that, I think those shorting B Hussien yesterday made a darn good bet at 61/39.
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