Posted on 12/08/2007 8:02:01 AM PST by Brices Crossroads
I really could not have predicted that the Iowa race would happen the way I now see it unfolding. With Romney cratering in the Newsweek poll and Huckabee heading for the stratosphere three weeks before the caucuses, there is a new dynamic here. (Huckabee 39; Romney: 17; Thompson: 10) Many GOP voters, including those for whom the War on Terror, Immigration or crime are the big issues, think Huckabee would be a disaster for the party, is unelectable and would drag the GOP down in Congressional elections next year if he were the nominee. The question has quickly become one of who can stop Huckabee.
Let me give you two reasons that Fred Thompson appears to be the one, one having to do with the horserace and the second having to do with acceptability. First, the horserace: Romney is cratering in Iowa. Rudy is not a factor from an organizational or ideological standpoint. Neither is McCain. Once downward momentum has begun to afflict a frontrunner the way it has Romney, it is next to impossible to reverse. That leaves only one candidate who can be the alternative both from an ideological and an organizational standpoint: Thompson. If Thompson comes in second or overtakes Huckabee, he becomes the anti-Huckabee candidate and the de facto winner of the caucuses because he had been predicted to finish as low as fifth. (I cannot believe the MSM is still obligingly tamping down expectations for him. May they continue to do so.) Bear in mind that a huge number of Iowans have not decided and, in a caucus format, are capable of being persuaded at the caucus events themselves. Both of these dynamics favor Thompson, who is setting up shop in Iowa until January 3.
The second reason why Thompson is so well positioned here is acceptability. The knocks on Fred are nearly all style, fire in the belly and other intangible pap. They have nothing to do with the issues on which most GOP voters agree overwhelmingly with Thompson. As Rush Limbaugh has often said, elections are about issues. On the issues, all of them, Thompson agrees with the vast majority of GOP primary voters and is acceptable(i.e.- does not scare) any of them. The same cannot be said of Rudy and Huckabee.
Unless Fred starts to show some passion about something (anything!), I don’t think he’s going anywhere. I think he needs to do better at the debates. He gives the right answers, but it doesn’t sound like it’s something important to him. I guess it’s like going through the motions.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iazb3e7_AmH3AnpADhZ-YduRx8oQD8SUI0601
And I don’t even like Mitt!
QUOTE: On the issues, all of them, Thompson agrees with the vast majority of GOP primary voters and is acceptable(i.e.- does not scare) any of them. The same cannot be said of Rudy and Huckabee.
= = =
I could vote for Thompson.
No, they have a HUGE illegal immigration problem in Iowa. That is where many of the nation's meat packing plants are, and guess who works in them? Many who back Huckabee in Iowa are the people that got involved in politics when Pat Robertson ran for president in 1988. They are more concerned with abortion, stem cells, gay marriage, etc.. than immigration. I lived in Iowa from 1974 to 2002, and worked on several campaigns (Al Haig, Steve Forbes, Bush41)
I’m still going with “None Of The Above”
What a lame group of candidates we have. Those I agree with ideologically don’t seem to have the leadership qualities I’m looking for. Those who do (i.e., Rudy), hold too many positions I don’t agree with (i.e., abortion). I don’t care HOW much Rush is smitten with Romney - the guy smells of slick to me, and I had more than enough of that in the Clinton years. Same with Huckabee, who slithered around the questions during the interview yesterday with Sean Hannity. Thompson, as someone else pointed out, seems to be asleep. McCain earned himself a permanent place on my shit list when he decided to take our first amendment rights away with his treasured “campaign finance reform” bill. Ron Paul in such a nutcase he belongs in the other party. This is really distressing because we NEED to win this election to keep that she-demon out of the White House.
Fred has never been above 20 in Iowa. For the last month he has been between 8 and 15. Romney has been to the mid 30s and is now down to 17, in spite of spending 10 million. He is cratering. If Romney loses Iowa, he is toast. If Fred comes in second, he becomes the prohibitive favorite. If he comes in thrid, it goes to SC.
I doubt we will need a “Stop Huckabee” movement. I think the electorate will do that for us when the campaign moves from the eccentric Hawkeye cauci to more normal venues. A good showing in Iowa will focus more attention on Huckabee’s record, rather than just the phenomenon of his “meteoric rise”. Even casual scrutiny will spell the end of the current rally in the polls.
Most women will be thinking "my husband better not try that."
Mitt would've been better served to have just offered up $500 a piece to vote for him in the caucus. He'd be money ahead, at least!
I fear he is the Republican Jimmah!
Farmers wouldn’t worry much about a few illegals that will do hard dirty jobs cheap.
Huck buying into the Gorebal warming bs would also go over well with his push for ethanol, which is made from corn.
I’m not sure if that is what is driving Huck’s poll numbers but it wouldn’t surprise me.
Why in some photo’s of Huckabee he looks like Kevin Spacy????
Unfortunately, I'm beginning to fear that Fred may NOT be acceptable to the majority of primary voters - for the simple fact that he's too smart and too constitutional. When he starts talking about federalism, when he suggests that we work within the constitutional framework instead of trying to jimmy it into an unrecognisable mush, when he presents policy alternatives that require more than two steps to accomplish - that loses a lot of voters who just want a quick fix (i.e. human life amendment, imperial federal courts, etc.). Huckabee is getting a lot of these voters, because he has successfully packaged himself as "the" social conservative and Christian candidate, and that's why he is rocketing right now.
I’m voting for Huckabee
Thompson’s poll numbers are down everywhere, including his oft touted national stats. I don’t focus on the points as much as the trend...and Fred’s headed down to the basement any way you look at it.
Huckabee is just like Carter; in fact he is worse, because he would be harder to oppose. He is absolutely unelectable, and will be defeated in the primaries. The only question is by whom. My post above makes the case that it is likely to be Fred Thompson who does the country and the GOP this service.
That makes him an attractive, electable candidate in this race.
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