Posted on 12/08/2007 8:02:01 AM PST by Brices Crossroads
I really could not have predicted that the Iowa race would happen the way I now see it unfolding. With Romney cratering in the Newsweek poll and Huckabee heading for the stratosphere three weeks before the caucuses, there is a new dynamic here. (Huckabee 39; Romney: 17; Thompson: 10) Many GOP voters, including those for whom the War on Terror, Immigration or crime are the big issues, think Huckabee would be a disaster for the party, is unelectable and would drag the GOP down in Congressional elections next year if he were the nominee. The question has quickly become one of who can stop Huckabee.
Let me give you two reasons that Fred Thompson appears to be the one, one having to do with the horserace and the second having to do with acceptability. First, the horserace: Romney is cratering in Iowa. Rudy is not a factor from an organizational or ideological standpoint. Neither is McCain. Once downward momentum has begun to afflict a frontrunner the way it has Romney, it is next to impossible to reverse. That leaves only one candidate who can be the alternative both from an ideological and an organizational standpoint: Thompson. If Thompson comes in second or overtakes Huckabee, he becomes the anti-Huckabee candidate and the de facto winner of the caucuses because he had been predicted to finish as low as fifth. (I cannot believe the MSM is still obligingly tamping down expectations for him. May they continue to do so.) Bear in mind that a huge number of Iowans have not decided and, in a caucus format, are capable of being persuaded at the caucus events themselves. Both of these dynamics favor Thompson, who is setting up shop in Iowa until January 3.
The second reason why Thompson is so well positioned here is acceptability. The knocks on Fred are nearly all style, fire in the belly and other intangible pap. They have nothing to do with the issues on which most GOP voters agree overwhelmingly with Thompson. As Rush Limbaugh has often said, elections are about issues. On the issues, all of them, Thompson agrees with the vast majority of GOP primary voters and is acceptable(i.e.- does not scare) any of them. The same cannot be said of Rudy and Huckabee.
ping!
Here’s an interesting editorial regarding Fred Thompson and the Iowa caucus.
Know what’s worse? Every time I think “President Huckabee” I start to chuckle. Sounds like something out of a Hanna-Barbera cartoon. Yes, that’s low and stupid, but still...
I don’t like Huckabee even a little bit- but Iowa surely seems to...making me wonder, amoung other things, if they have a small or non-existent illegal immigration problem there. He is so bad on immigration that I haven’t paid attention to much about him- but I wonder why they seem to like him in Iowa.
I sure hope you’re right.
They just came out with Huckabee’s views on AIDS back in 1992.
That should pretty much finish him off.
That is why the rest of the party is going to coalesce against Huck. I predict it will be Fred, because if they went to Rudy, the evangelicals would be demoralized and angry and not vote. But if it’s Fred, they will support him because he is as much of a social con as Huck and a lot better on every other issue.
The Republican party on a whole is now Democrat lite. That’s why the Huckster is acceptable.
Your prediction sounds very logical, but I have to ask what in the WORLD does logic have to do with presidential elections?
Romney's numbers aren't the only ones going down the toilet. Fred too.
Thompson? Is he still running?
“His poll numbers are sinking faster than Huckabee’s appear to be rising.”
Nonsense. Huckabee is going up too fast, peaking way too early. Fred is just about within the MOE of where he has been. And these polls will all be fishwrap in three weeks. Dean was way ahead of Kerry (20 points)at this point in 2003. He wound up losing by 20. People do not vote on the MSM conclusion that candidate X is lazy.They vote on the issues. Wait and see.
Here’s a way for the majority here that back Fred to help him: Phone for Fred Party December 13th! http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/1935975/posts
Join us December 13th for a Phone for Fred Party!
We get thousands of emails every week from regular folks asking how they can get involved and make a big difference even though they don’t live in the early states. Next Thursday, December 13th, we are having a nationwide phone bank for Fred. Hosting a phone bank on the 13th is the best way to make a real difference in the final month going into the Iowa Caucus. Take a group picture of everyone at your party, and if your party makes the most calls we’ll make it the feature on the homepage.
Sign up today to host a phonebank next Thursday. Your efforts will be the difference in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida. Never been a host before? It’s easy. You can use our online tools to help organize your phonebank. After filling out the form, you can select to make your event public so other Friends of Fred in your area can attend, or private so you can limit your guests to those that receive personal invitations. After completing the form, you’ll have the opportunity to invite your friends via email. You will also be able to track RSVPs and responses from guests online through your profile.
Your phonebank will start at different times based on the where you live. If you’re in Eastern Time Zone your phonebank will run from 6-9 PM, Central 6-9 PM, Mountain 5-8 PM, and Pacific 4-7 PM. The staggered start times will allow you to reach voters during the prime hours they are at home.
His poll numbers are sinking faster than Huckabee's appear to be rising.
I don't think Fred's poll numbers reflect anything about him needing "woken up". I think they reflect the fact that an increasing number of Republican voters have reached the point where they don't like to think real hard (you know, about tough, intellectual concepts like "federalism"), and they want a "quick-fix" candidate like Huckabee who plays to their lack of knowledge about the Constitution.
Jimmy was and is a DEMOCRAT.
Even though I’m not supporting Huckabee, I’m also not convinced that he’s absolutely “unelectable.” I think FReepers and other conservatives sometimes exist in a bubble, and tend to project our own views on the electorate at large.
Centrists, moderates, etc., like it or not, do have some broad appeal in general elections. And likeability had as much to do with Reagan’s success as his positions on the issues.
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