Posted on 05/19/2006 8:11:38 AM PDT by Coop
...[u]nseating an incumbent in the House is always difficult. Unseating a 32-year incumbent is harder still. However, Murtha may be up for a "Daschle moment" - a high-profile defeat earned by running far to the left of one's constituents. To start with, we should take a look at the voting results for the counties within the 12th district for the 2004 Presidential election:
2004 Presidential voting results, counties within Pennsylvania 12th:
Greene County:
Bush 7,786 (50%)
Kerry 7,764 (50%)
Fayette County:
Kerry 29,129 (53%)
Bush 25,045 (47%)
Washington County:
Kerry 48,225 (50%)
Bush 47,763 (50%)
Westmoreland County:
Bush 100,087 (56%)
Kerry 77,774 (44%)
Cambria County:
Bush 34,048 (51%)
Kerry 32,591 (49%)
Indiana County:
Bush 20,254 (56%)
Kerry 15,831 (44%)
Armstrong County:
Bush 18,925 (61%)
Kerry 12,025 (39%)
Overall:
Bush 253,908 (53%)
Kerry 223,339 (47%)
The counties in the district have a clear Republican lean. Of course, the district does not contain the entirety of these counties because of the 2000 gerrymandering, but that gerrymandering was carried about by a Republican controlled legislature, and the results are generally agreed to have favored Republicans. For this reason, without having a more detailed set of data for the voting by precincts within the 12th, I'll stick to the assumption that Murtha's district has a Republican lean in national elections...
This Pennsylvania district is rural, and if it has been following national trends at all, is solidly for strong enforcement of the borders against illegal immigration. Unfortunately, I do not have polls available to show this, but if rural voters in Virginia were willing to vote out incumbent town councilmen over the issue, rural voters in Pennsylvania may be inclined to do the same thing. And as luck would have it, Murtha voted "nay" on HR4437, the Border Protection, Antiterrorism, and Illegal Immigration Control Act sponsored by Sensenbrenner. If Irey can succeed in making this an issue in the campaign, it may prove a major weakness for Murtha, especially since it seems to contradict his stated concern for national security and ties him to the very poorly received national illegal immigration demonstrations.
In sum, Murtha is beatable, despite the advantages of 32 years of incumbency. On the two major issues of the day, the war and immigration, he appears to be running far to the left of his constituents, and now because of his national media presence, they know about it. I have not seen any early polls taken on the Irey-Murtha matchup so my arguments are based on inference from other data, but I believe my assumptions can stand up to scrutiny. This is a campaign RedState can get behind and have a reasonable chance of success at. When the benefits are as great as unseating a Democrat hack like Murtha, the price of tapping a few keys to blog for Irey seems quite small!
"I'm surprised that more Marines, out of the Corps, haven't been screaming for the defeat of this a$$hole and starting contribution drives of their own."
Plenty have come out and stated their position here on FR. A little conundrum presents itself in this situation.
There's this little thing called the integrity of the Corps, brotherhood, and other little thing called honor...
Dirty laundry isn't aired in public.
SOP is to tackle dirty laundry with some measure of privacy.
It's a fine line.
Murtha knows this.
Usually when Dems start screaming in one direction, it's become fairly easy to just turn around slowly and we can see why they were trying to divert attention.
Back when he first flip flopped on the war. I did a little reading on this guy. While a reservist for 22 years he earned no medals, served no meaningful deployments and photos from the 80's show a slightly obese man without anything even close to a Marine haircut...My gut tells me something stinks about his "37 year career". Even as a reservist there should be some "meat" somewhere in those 22 years.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1635011/posts?page=400#381
To: All
FYI.....Duncan Hunter just had a LIVE presser regarding the Marines/Haditha matter.
He said that the report that has NOT been finished yet, regardless of what Murtha has been saying, will be sent to the top guy (I forgot his name, sorry)...at about the end of next week...he will read and study it..for how long, Duncan didn't know.
THEN, he said that HE will have hearings on this matter, and probably so will Sen. Warner in the Senate.
He then went on and said that over 970,000 different troops have fought or are fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, and regardless of how this investigation ends, this incident with a few Marines, on one morning in Nov. of last years, should NOT reflect on the rest of the troops.
When questioned, he was asked why they are having hearings/investigations if this will be handled by the Military? And is Congress going to have a "trial" at the same time as the military?
Duncan said NO...they were going to go over evidence in this incident just "procedures"...hmmmmmmm
Then he was asked if it was a good thing for Congress to have hearings before there is even a trial, verdict, etc?
He pretty much didn't answer that I heard...just said that Americans need to know that "we" don't look the other way...and that "we" need to make sure that all protocol, blah, blah, is followed.
Other than that, he wouldn't answer any questions...just said he decided to have the presser to "clear up" some statements (Murtha) that have been made that not only mean nothing because the report isn't finished...but, that he is afraid that the MSM will "use" this incident to smear the rest of our troops.
Don't know if any of you are interested in this...but I am, so I thought I would share.
381 posted on 05/19/2006 2:45:28 PM EDT by Txsleuth
That's a thesis, but Western PA is one of those places that has had little or no impact from the Mexican invasion. There are very few around here, to the point that it was only this Spring that I began seeing Mexicans working on landscaping crews.
I did a project a while ago looking at Census figures, and the Pittsburgh Metro area had less than 1% "Hispanic" population. In Murtha's district which takes in the Eastern and Southern fringes of the Pittsburgh MSA, Mexicans are probably an even rarer sight.
The people in that district are socially very conservative but there is a very high percentage who are what I call "genetic" Democrats who think their grand pap would come back from the grave with his UMW friends to get them if they voted Republican.
He's not an idiot, LS. He's compromised and being extorted, IMHO.
He's spent 30 years in congress content to be a behind the scenes power broker and cleaning up in the process and suddenly, he jumps out to be a media darling with bizarre accusations.
The guy missed a trip to Club Fed by a whisker during ABSCAM and has kept very low profile since, but IMHO, he has always an easy mark for a sting and I think the left has him by the short hairs.
Personally, I'd like to see him and Sam Johnson take off the gloves.
Interestingly, if Murtha lost, Mike Doyle of Pittsburgh would be the only Democrat left to represent western PA. Who'd have thought that?
Don't tell me it's got crossed swords and there's a coordinating statue of Murtha on a pedestal in the town square.
OMG, you've got to be kidding. Good thing you used a source to tell it. I don't know that I would have believed you otherwise ; ) And please note, it does not describe the design. So it could be swords. No mention of a statue, but perhaps it's not due to come thru until the next piggy back delivery.
This author is on to something, though. Maybe Murtha could "return" the arch. He could donate it to that area in Iraq opposite where the sword arch is located. It could be painted like a rainbow named the Hope and Promise of Freedom Rainbow.
Hmm. Interesting take. So he's a crook? Either way, he's sold out the very men that he used to fight with, and in my view is little different than George McClellan or even Benedict Arnold.
At this point, I think Murtha is closer to McClellan (a dupe and willing accomplice) than Arnold . . . but I could be persuaded.
Not just from the PA-12th, but all around the country. We can all play a part in supporting Ms. Irey's campaign to retire Jack Murtha. Donations of money and time, sending out her URL and contact information to friends in/near western PA, writing letters to the editor, and bumping/pinging threads.
Maybe, maybe not. But no matter what President Bush got ~49% of the vote in the district. The people comfortable pulling the lever for him are going to be none too pleased with Jack Murtha's public betrayal of our troops in harm's way.
:-D Good one!
A little birdie told me that Diana Irey may be visiting Free Republic in the near future. Won't that be fun if true? :-)
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