Posted on 05/17/2006 10:22:24 PM PDT by Aussie Dasher
That is a question being debated by Mark Tapscott and Jim Geraghty. And lest you think this is an academic debate, think again -- there are indeed many conservatives who, like Tapscott, think that a minor drubbing at the polls this November is just what the Dr. ordered to remedy the GOP's current big spending ailment.
Tapscott argues that a GOP loss of the House would set conservatives up nicely to retake the House and keep (or some may say retake) the Presidency.
There would be lots of talk about insanities like impeachment, congressional investigations, repealing the Bush tax cuts and the like. But the lack of actual results would drive the Moonbats into venegeful desperation and a general revulsion among independent and conservative voters, with a bloody and perhaps permanently crippling splintering of the Democrats to follow.
It would in short be the perfect setup for a stengthened conservative majority to return in Congress in 2008, most likely with a White House occupant wise enough to recognize that the "emerging Republican(i.e conservative) majority" had become a reality.
Geraghty is not so sure:
We can strongly suspect that voters would be repulsed by Speaker Pelosi and a Kos-style legislative agenda. But we don’t know for certain. Remember that a Democrat-controlled Congress is also likely to be getting astonishingly glowing press coverage. You know that roaring economy? You’ll start hearing about it, and it will all be credited to the Pelosi-Reid Economic Stimulus Bill passed in January 2007. Congressional hearings accusing oil companies of “illegal profits” will be welcomed by consumers frustrated by high gas prices. Bush’s approval rating will take another hit after he vetoes the “Every Voter Gets Free Health Care And Free Prescription Drugs And Rent Or Mortgage Subsidies And A Pony Too Act of 2007.” Senator John Kerry’s summit meeting with French President Jacques Chirac will be credited with dramatically reducing anti-Americanism around the world. And so on.
Of late, I have been inclined to see things the same way Tapscott does. It would be disasterous for limited government conservatives if House and Senate leadership maintained the status quo into the election season and then lost no seats. It would be, in their eyes, an affirmation of business as usual.
But leadership on both sides of the Capitol have been slowly waking up to the fact that their conservative base is ticked. And to their credit, they are taking baby steps towards fixing the problem. House leaders Boehner and Hastert have drawn a line in the sand on the emergency supplemental spending bill. Boehner has been very outspoken against the pork contained therein. The duo also appear poised to hold the line against a wishy-washy immigration reform bill. Also, the earmark reform recently agreed to in the House should not be overlooked.
Now granted, these are baby steps and there is still more to be discouraged about than encouraged, but they are not nothing. However, if they build on these actions over the coming months then the case conservatives have for wanting to see some pain extracted in November diminishes. That's not to say conservatives can be bought -- because they can't be -- the actions must be real and not simple gestures to the conservative heart and soul of the GOP.
Additionally, Geraghty's points must be taken seriously. What happens if the Dems win the House and then use their newfound subpoena power smartly -- i.e. not overreaching. I know this is a stretch given their Feingold-esque track record, but the point is that with the majority they will have the power to score political points if they take a measured approach to their political theatre. They will have the power of subpoena and they can use it to highlight every single perceived (doesn't matter if it is real) corruption of the GOP Majority. They will have over a decade worth of history to parse through and manipulate. If they are smart -- again a big if -- they could make real political hay.
I know the chances are they can't hold back their crazies, but the more I think about it the more I am not sure I want to take that bet.
Yesterday, RSC Chairman Mike Pence speaking to a group of bloggers reinforced this point. Pence, no tool of leadership, told the group that the loss of the House would be "disastrous." Pence just returned from an overseas trip and he noted that a Democrat victory would "send a deafening message to the capitals of the world about our commitment in Iraq."
As conservatives on the outside looking in, we are going to have to figure out pretty quickly exactly what we are willing to wager. This is indeed high stakes.
UPDATE: An example of continued good rumblings from the House...this release from Speaker Hastert's office:
(Washington, D.C.) Speaker of the House J. Dennis Hastert (R-IL) today made the following statement regarding Senate attempts to use an across-the-board cut to make room for additional spending it included in its $109 billion emergency supplemental bill. The Senate passed its bill, which is more than $15 billion over the President’s $92 billion budget request, earlier this month.
“Any calls from the Senate for an across-the-board cut to make room for a bloated supplemental will be met by a busy signal in the House. The House will not join a shell-game spending spree with taxpayer dollars. President Bush requested $92 billion for the War on Terror and Hurricane Katrina relief spending. The House has passed a bill that exercised fiscal restraint. The Senate needs to throw overboard, unnecessary add-ons and help us get the needed funds to our troops in the field and our fellow citizens suffering the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.”
that easy... a win.
Signed,
The Free Republic Perpetually P*ssed Off Crowd
The only good outcome is: the Republicans learn how to be conservative before November, and then as a result of that, they win.
There really aren't any other good ones. This notion that somehow if we let the Democrats win one, it will fix things, is just nonsense. That will just convince people that it's better to go vote for a bunch of RINO Republicans and then in 2008 we'll be back in the same boat, but with all the damage that a Democrat house could have done in the intervening two years.
Well, I suppose one other good alternative would be if the Democrats learned how to be conservative and then won, but I'm not holding my breath on that one.
You got the secret FR mail!
LOSING is NOT equal winning and it's NOT preferable to winning.
Just look at how much damage one term of Carter presidency did to the coutnry, and two terms of Clinton -- totally destroyed our defenses, he cut troops and equipment by 50%, it's a tremendous testimony to the quality of our troops and our current leadership, that we are able to fight the War on Terror and win and that we were able to go and win in two countries: Afghanistan and Iraq, one after another.
Putting Dems in power in today's critical time is suicidal, and may well be that litarally, not just figuratively.
A win.
Let's not outsmart ourselves. The Rats know what to do with power, even a little of it. We must always, always fight them. Hard.
The solution is RINO incumbents being defeated in the primaries by hard-edge conservatives, who then go on to actually win elections. That'll send the message.
It's a no brainer.
We must get a win.
Think of our troops first and foremost.
We cannot let the democRATs get even a toe in the door.
They must be kept out at all costs.
Handing the Dem's victory is not the answer. Getting rid of RINO's and 'moderates' is what conservatives have to do.
My taxes are high enough.. I dont need or want them any higher. If the Dem's take over you can bet your ass taxes will go up and up and up. I am not making excuses for the republicans- they have done a sloppy job for the most part. However, rethink the idea of democrats controlling congress and possibly under another Hillary white house.
If the Democrats take power, it will be two years of investigations. Our nation will be even more vulnerable in the War on Terror. At first, it may sound like a good idea to teach the GOP a lesson, but at what cost to the nation?
No child left behind, expanding budget, more government interference in states rights, and the big one illegal immigrations. All issues where the President has not supported the solid conservative wing of the party that elected him.
Justices Stephens and Ginsberg might like to be consulted on this matter.
Just saying...
"What happens if the Dems win the House and then use their newfound subpoena power smartly -- i.e. not overreaching. I know this is a stretch ..." .......????
Anybody who believes the dems will not go gangbusters to try to impeach Bush is living in dreamland. And .. quite frankly, I'm sick of hearing about this. The repubs will get the message .. because those of us who really care about America will see to it that it happens.
Putting the party of anger, impeachment, more taxes, appeasement into power IS NOT JUST STUPID IT'S IGNORANT!
Everybody needs to read the thread: "A House Divided" by our own Pukin Dog. Maybe a few people will get it - enough to stop this assault against our country and our President.
It's no question of the decade, easy answer. A win.
You never win by losing. Ever.
People like to point out Carter, but they miss the fact that Carter is the cause of a TON of problems that we are either still fixing (i.e. Iran) or cannot realistically fix (i.e. The Department of Education).
You do not win by losing in the long run. Period.
Well, there is no debate about one thing, anyone who things handing Democrats a victory is good for Republicans has to be a ding dong!
Wrong answer.
The RINOs will vote the republican majority out of power(amnesty).. Once gone, the democrats will never let power out of their hands again.. The Clintons and minions learn a lot being out of power..
The so-called debate is a waste of time.. What to do next is a better question.. Bush, the other RINOs and the democrats have absolute power.. They're on the same page.. More aliens(democrats) and thats the way it WILL BE... 2006 is a crap shoot, 2008 is a done deal.. The democrats win..
What to do next is the question.. Might be a bit early for some to face the denial though..
Who does Al Quaida want for president or majority leader?
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