Could armed conflict with Iran lead to global nuclear war?

Is war with Iran inevitable? If it is, I fear it could easily escalate to engulf the entire world. There are many paths that a conflict with Iran could take, and some of them are very unappealing. But what is to be done? Nothing? Doing nothing has consequences too.

Too many "what ifs" here.

Well, thats the whole point of the thread. We need to ask "what if" concerning all of the relevant variables so that the worst ultimate outcomes can be avoided.

The Iran nuclear standoff is deadly serious, and I am hesitant to liken it to a game, but we must have the mindset of a chess player who analyzes the consequences of a large number of variables and moves.

Our only big concern in a war with Iran is the Strait of Hormuz.

I agree that the Strait of Hormuz is a serious issue. Allowing the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be a major blunder, sharply raising the economic stakes for all interested parties. Perhaps a naval escort of all shipping through the Strait is a solution.

"Taiwan has a powerful airforce that can match mainland China's. They have a modern navy and missles that can sink a naval invasion. Does China want to lose the core of their military on this little island? I say no, not until they have built up a much bigger military machine. "

But China could simply blockade Taiwan and try to starve them out.

According to www.hazegray.org Taiwan only has 2 diesel submarines (from the 1980s) in addition to 2 WW2 era subs. China has 12 Kilo class subs, 3+ Song class, and 1 SSBN as well as 5 SSN and around 40-50 obsolete Romeo/Ming class.

Of course, China's military could not stand up to ours, but they may be waiting until we have a pacifist wimp like hillary in the white house to make their move.

Personally I, like you from what I understand from your post, am not too worried about North Korea or Iran or Syria, etc. They have mostly obsolete military equipment and not too much of that even. But more importantly, they can't really project power, and therefore are only a regional threat easily dealt with.

Only countries that are able to claim world power status and can serve as a focal point for weaker anti-american nations to rally behind are really a threat to the United States.

For example, during the Cold War, Russia was a huge threat to the US while Syria, Nicaragua, Angola, Libya, etc were not, because they had relatively weak militaries, no manufacturing capability, and were small and could only cause trouble with their nieghbors.

Today, the only countries that I can see rising to fill the role of the Soviet Union (assuming that Russia remains weak) as an anti-american superpower are China, or possibly India.

Brazil and Indonesia would also like to be World Powers, but they are just dreaming, they are even weaker than Iran, etc.

South Africa too has ambitions but is even behind Indonesia or Syria.

But an alliance similar to what happened in Jeff's excellent Dragon Furies Series of China, Russia, India,Iran, Cuba, Sudan, Pakistan, Syria, Libya, North Korea, etc etc etc would pose a formidable threat to the US.

Personally I believe Russia would side with us rather than with an anti-US alliance.

"Anyway, I place my trust in God. When the Soviet Union was threatening us they had several "mysterious" nuclear disasters within their military. The hand of God will decide the fate of the world; so the most important thing for all of us to do is PRAY, PRAY, PRAY, PRAY, PRAY. God will not let His people be defeated by evil, if, that is, we show Him that we really are His people."

Amen, Amen, what you say is true. God will protect us.

"I agree that the Strait of Hormuz is a serious issue. Allowing the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be a major blunder, sharply raising the economic stakes for all interested parties. Perhaps a naval escort of all shipping through the Strait is a solution."

A naval escort sounds like a good idea. But first we need to take out the Silkworm anti-ship missile batteries that Iran bought from China (Iran has 18 batteries I believe of 6 missiles each plus reloads.)

Britain should never have given up Socotra. While its not right next to the Sraits of Hormuz, it would give us a base too far from Iran for their SCUDs and Shahab/NoDong missiles to hit but close enough to strike them if we need to.

"That's why Hugo is arming."

Hugo's growing arms purchases are disturbing. The 100,000 AK-47s could be smuggled into the US for Chavez's North Korea trained Special Forces or to MS-13 or illegal Mexican groups, etc.

But Chavez didnt stop there. He bought 44 helicopters (including 10 attack Mi-35 which he could use to attack US troops in Colombia.)

Now he's looking for up to 50 MiG-29SMT or Su-27M and 3 submarines to replace the 1980s era German 209/1300s.

Chavez is also trying to get a reserve militia of 2+ million venezuelans.
He's gearing up for a war. Of course if he tried anything, we'd stop him like a fly.

And of course now he's rethinking this whole thing about presidents having limited terms. Guess he needs more time to get everything in gear.

But I agree, I don't think he or any of his little followers, such as Evo Morales who believes he is going to run his country on coca leaves grown by pure indigenous peoples, would last very long against us. However, they could certainly mess up some of the struggling countries around them, such as Colombia. But of course, they're already doing that...

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