Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB
For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.
The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.
I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.
There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.
Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.
So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.
However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.
I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."
At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.
I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.
With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.
This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.
With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."
Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.
With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.
These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.
I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.
I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....
But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.
As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.
Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.
If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.
An hour? A WHOLE hour????
That's not acceptible.
*snort*
What a day. A day taken off from work, an early morning drive to the Capitol to sit in on a three-hour legislative "joint task force" (House & Senate) meeting just to be sure they weren't going to do smething stupid, then on the way back the "Check Engine" light came on so she diverted to the mechanic. $400+ today, with a followup $400 visit. Sigh.
I've never had an under-100k-mile car with so many problems. (They're really not all that many, but most of my Japanese vehicles have gone to 150k+ with less trouble and the only one that didn't get to 250k was stolen at 169k.)
Yep! It was the beginning two-parter for the "Next Generation" series. "Journey to Farpoint"
But the "cow" was a space traveling entity as big as a city, and the ditch was a planetary gravity well.
Scotty used the transporter beam for the Humpbacks, not the tractor beam.
I had a 1979 Toyota Celica Lift-Back that I got for $350 and it was the most forgiving car I have ever had. I had to replace a lot of parts, but they were all original, and every single one, without fail, let go in my apartment parking lot.
I'd kill to have that car back! (NOT!)
*curtesying low* I stand corrected.
Star Trek tractor beams, and their equivalent "repulsor beams," developed by Wesley Crusher, would be an outgrowth of controlled gravity wave emanations.
I suspect that this is the basis of their slow speed sub-light engines, the "impulse engines."
Warp drive is more closely related to transporter technology.
In a similar vein, our food replicators will eventually lead us to the possibility of my so-called "FAX" transmission, where living entities can be moved through space on communication pathways. It will take a lot of research, and most likely a few gullible volunteers.
Sorry! I needed it for the regional meeting today. It..uh.. acquired a few dents. I'll get you a new one.
Is it Labor Day yet?
Count your blessings. My first (operational) car was a '59 Nash Metropolitan (the size of a Volks bug but much tougher), bought for $85. The dash-mounted ball-and-socket joint for the shifter was so worn through it took me two days to learn to shift it well enough to drive on the streets. The gyrations I had to go through to shift from 1st to 2nd gear (sweep it in an arc just so, shove it into the dash just so much, move it a from here to there, pop it back out, sweep another short arc) once in a while left other drivers gasping in laughter.
But for $85, it got me around.
Usually.
Its biggest weakness was its Lucas electrical system (that's as in "Joe Lucas, Prince of Darkness" -- "Why do Brits drink warm beer? Lucas refrigeration"), which loved to fail long ways from home. I learned how long I could drive on battery in: a) daylight, no headlights, and b) nighttime, with headlights.
But it kept me alive through a really bad rear-end smashup caused by a '57 Chev (a friend drove my Metro away as I went to the hospital; the Chev was totaled).
I replaced it with another Metro, a '61, and with that I got a great exercise in navigation the fateful day part of the suspension system broke and I had to figure out a route home with NO LEFT TURNS. (I made it!)
"...In a similar vein, our food replicators will eventually lead us to the possibility of my so-called "FAX" transmission, where living entities can be moved through space on communication pathways. It will take a lot of research, and most likely a few gullible volunteers."
Dang, NnB...I don't wanna be a cannibal...
Hm. And here I'd always sort of (never really thought about it) consideed "impulse engines" to be highly refined versions of the Orion "rockets." Cutely contrasted in Niven & Pournelle's book "Footfall".
ERK!!! The car I was in at the time of my accident (which altered my face) was a Nash...
We seem to always remember the car we had the most fun in, or had the most trouble in. Go figger. ;o]
Reminds me of the short but agonizing trip I made driving a standard transmission without a functioning clutch.
I think that's what I have...
That's when you have to learn to "speed shift."
I meant that the technology of food replicators would lead into FAX transmission. Not that people would be consumed.
The problem I have with the FAX process is the "deconstruction" that is needed at the beginning of it. That seems kinda ... destructive. ... and painful.
It seems that they are actually impulse synthesizing engines. Synthetic impulses, eh?
I hope this can be developed. It seems more likely than warp drive, even if it would be slower.
That Nash Metro saved my life! I had installed seatbelts just the week before, which kept me from sailing out the back window AND in place to pull myself and regain control to avoid a subsequent head-on. (He was going 35-50 MPH at collision.)
The dashboard emptied itself of half its "contents" on impact, the seatback collapsed to horizontal, I do not know where the right-angle bend in the steering wheel came from... But in a car with a lesser frame (such as a VW bug), I would have been crushed.
You've never mentioned your accident, and I'm not going to ask. I spent a headache-filled year in a neck brace as a result of mine, and a hypersensitivity to my neck that I only conquered through two years of judo (ended just short of a brown belt due to a move far from my dojo).
I'd love to have a Metro again... a car so ugly, ungainly, awkward-looking and thoroughly lacking in amenities (other than a totally inadequate --in California!-- heater, and a vacuum-tube AM radio) that only a geek could love it. (Did I mention my "camper conversions"? *\;-)
But it would have to be one without Lucas ("Prince of Darkness") electrical systems.
I know about the concept, but here is the problem. Without a clutch, how do you start moving in the first place?
The truck was started, in second gear, lurching forward drunkenly as the engine sputtered to life.
I stayed in second until I could get it to my repair facility, except for the occasional necessary full stop!
It seems to me that the "deconstruction" process would affect the central nervous system in much the same way as a deluge of sulfuric acid. The only way to avoid it wuold be to have the bandwidth to de-res the entire body all at once, and nearly instantaneously. And that's ALOTTA bandwidth!
ERK!
Do I REALLY want to be here????
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