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The World a Century from Now
the current writer, et al | December 31 2004 | SunkenCiv, et al

Posted on 12/31/2004 12:46:20 PM PST by SunkenCiv

from "http://dieoff.org/":

Will Limits Of The Earth's Resources Control Human Numbers?
David Pimentel, O. Bailey, P. Kim,
E. Mullaney, J. Calabrese,
L. Walman, F. Nelson, and X. Yao
February 25, 1999
The current world population is about 6 billion. Based on the present growth rate of 1.5% per year, the population is projected to double in approximately 46 years (PRB, 1996). Because population growth can not continue indefinitely, society can either voluntarily control its numbers or let natural forces such as disease, malnutrition, and other disasters limit human numbers (Pimentel et al., 1994a; Bartlett, 1997-98). Increasing human numbers, especially in urban areas, and increasing food, water, air, and soil pollution by pathogenic organisms and chemicals, are causing a rapid increase in the prevalence of disease and number of human deaths (WHO, 1992, 1995; Murray and Lopez, 1996; Pimentel et al., 1998a). Currently, food shortages are critical, with more than 3 billion humans malnourished worldwide -- the largest number and proportion ever (FAO, 1992a, b; Neisheim, 1993; McMichael, 1993; Maberly, 1994; Bouis, 1995; WHO, 1995; WHO 1996). An estimated 40,000 children die each day due to malnutrition and other diseases (WHO, 1992)... The U.S. population doubled during the past 60 years from 135 million to more than 270 million (NGS, 1995) and, based on the current U.S. growth rate of approximately 1% per year (USBC, 1996), is projected to double again to 540 million in the next 70 years . China's population is 1.3 billion and, despite the governmental policy of permitting only one child per couple, it is still growing at an annual rate of 1.2% (SSBPRC, 1990). India has nearly 1 billion people living on approximately one-third of the land of either the United States or China. India's current population growth rate is 1.9%, which translates to a doubling time of 37 years (PRB, 1996). Together, China and India constitute more than one-third of the total world population. Given the steady decline in per capita resources, it is unlikely that India, China, and the world population in total will double.
The figure for deaths per day, 40,000, works out to 175,200,000 (over 175 million) in the twelve years since the figure was compiled (1992). Concocted is more like it, since that figure apparently originated sometime before 1981, in the French election campaign. Even the World Socialist website has this to say:
This is equivalent to 10,000 deaths a day, or 3.65 million a year, from "starvation and hunger-related illness"; which is a much more defendable figure for the number of people who die because they literally do not have enough to eat, together with those who die from protein or vitamin deficiency diseases like kwashiorkor and beri-beri (as opposed to the parasitic and infectious diseases mentioned earlier), People do die of starvation (inanition) in the world today (under capitalism there is always a famine somewhere in the world - last year it was North-East Brazil, this year it is Ethiopia) but nowhere near 30 million. To quote such a demonstrably exaggerated figure is to weaken the credibility of those who do so, and is quite unnecessary since the case against capitalism on this question is strong enough without exaggerating.
Assuming that the figure for people who don't get enough to eat is at all correct (780,000,000 or 780 million) with a current world population of over six billion, it is a wonder that the starving population survives at all. Since their numbers shrink -- among the young, for the most part -- the death of 175 million in twelve years (or the lower figure of 45 million) would whittle down that 780 million figure. Since malnutrition also has an impact (in at least a couple of ways) on the conception of children, and a starvation deaths of so many children also reduces the subsequent generations, several things become clear.

Either the starvation problem moves around, even within a stressed, rural, underdeveloped society, so that approximately the same number of are starving at any given time, but overall, the affected populations survive; or the starved populations vanish one after the other, leaving whole areas depopulated; or, the famine numbers are mostly hot air.

If the so-called have-nots are starving to death, soon there will be no more have-nots. My view is, there are no have-nots in the first place; there are those who have more, and those who have less. Either way, the idea that somehow the numerous (that is, 12 to 15 per cent of the world's population) have-nots are going to rise up and slay the much more numerous, much better armed haves, is a gigantic lie attached to the various political and economic agendas of the liars who repeat it.


TOPICS: Agriculture; Business/Economy; Society
KEYWORDS: prediction; predictions; predictionthread
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Immigration Could Add 100M to U.S. by 2060
NewsMax | ,August 31, 2007 | Randy Hall
Posted on 09/01/2007 11:36:35 AM EDT by processing please hold
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1889864/posts


21 posted on 09/01/2007 10:51:13 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Profile updated Wednesday, August 29, 2007. https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

thanks again.

Immigrant surge leads U.S. toward half billion people
Long Beach Press Telegram | 08/30/2007 10:35:45 PM PDT | Lisa Friedman
Posted on 09/02/2007 1:38:37 PM EDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1890224/posts


22 posted on 09/03/2007 6:02:12 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Profile updated Wednesday, August 29, 2007. https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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Post your Predictions for 2009
Free Republic | 12.01.08 | Perdogg
Posted on 11/30/2008 6:26:31 PM PST by Perdogg
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/2140606/posts


23 posted on 12/07/2008 4:37:47 PM PST by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/_______Profile finally updated Saturday, December 6, 2008 !!!)
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To: Perdogg

Only 91 years to go. ;’) Re-ping.


24 posted on 01/04/2013 7:37:18 PM PST by SunkenCiv (Romney would have been worse, if you're a dumb ass.)
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To: SunkenCiv

ping


25 posted on 01/01/2016 3:20:43 PM PST by GOPJ (Trump's instincts are as formidable as his courage, he knows the nation's bleeding out..DWest)
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To: M Kehoe

Make that, “even in Italy”.

https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/1311725/posts?page=17#17


26 posted on 03/06/2021 9:45:11 AM PST by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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27 posted on 07/13/2022 5:31:55 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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