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The World a Century from Now
the current writer, et al | December 31 2004 | SunkenCiv, et al

Posted on 12/31/2004 12:46:20 PM PST by SunkenCiv

from "http://dieoff.org/":

Will Limits Of The Earth's Resources Control Human Numbers?
David Pimentel, O. Bailey, P. Kim,
E. Mullaney, J. Calabrese,
L. Walman, F. Nelson, and X. Yao
February 25, 1999
The current world population is about 6 billion. Based on the present growth rate of 1.5% per year, the population is projected to double in approximately 46 years (PRB, 1996). Because population growth can not continue indefinitely, society can either voluntarily control its numbers or let natural forces such as disease, malnutrition, and other disasters limit human numbers (Pimentel et al., 1994a; Bartlett, 1997-98). Increasing human numbers, especially in urban areas, and increasing food, water, air, and soil pollution by pathogenic organisms and chemicals, are causing a rapid increase in the prevalence of disease and number of human deaths (WHO, 1992, 1995; Murray and Lopez, 1996; Pimentel et al., 1998a). Currently, food shortages are critical, with more than 3 billion humans malnourished worldwide -- the largest number and proportion ever (FAO, 1992a, b; Neisheim, 1993; McMichael, 1993; Maberly, 1994; Bouis, 1995; WHO, 1995; WHO 1996). An estimated 40,000 children die each day due to malnutrition and other diseases (WHO, 1992)... The U.S. population doubled during the past 60 years from 135 million to more than 270 million (NGS, 1995) and, based on the current U.S. growth rate of approximately 1% per year (USBC, 1996), is projected to double again to 540 million in the next 70 years . China's population is 1.3 billion and, despite the governmental policy of permitting only one child per couple, it is still growing at an annual rate of 1.2% (SSBPRC, 1990). India has nearly 1 billion people living on approximately one-third of the land of either the United States or China. India's current population growth rate is 1.9%, which translates to a doubling time of 37 years (PRB, 1996). Together, China and India constitute more than one-third of the total world population. Given the steady decline in per capita resources, it is unlikely that India, China, and the world population in total will double.
The figure for deaths per day, 40,000, works out to 175,200,000 (over 175 million) in the twelve years since the figure was compiled (1992). Concocted is more like it, since that figure apparently originated sometime before 1981, in the French election campaign. Even the World Socialist website has this to say:
This is equivalent to 10,000 deaths a day, or 3.65 million a year, from "starvation and hunger-related illness"; which is a much more defendable figure for the number of people who die because they literally do not have enough to eat, together with those who die from protein or vitamin deficiency diseases like kwashiorkor and beri-beri (as opposed to the parasitic and infectious diseases mentioned earlier), People do die of starvation (inanition) in the world today (under capitalism there is always a famine somewhere in the world - last year it was North-East Brazil, this year it is Ethiopia) but nowhere near 30 million. To quote such a demonstrably exaggerated figure is to weaken the credibility of those who do so, and is quite unnecessary since the case against capitalism on this question is strong enough without exaggerating.
Assuming that the figure for people who don't get enough to eat is at all correct (780,000,000 or 780 million) with a current world population of over six billion, it is a wonder that the starving population survives at all. Since their numbers shrink -- among the young, for the most part -- the death of 175 million in twelve years (or the lower figure of 45 million) would whittle down that 780 million figure. Since malnutrition also has an impact (in at least a couple of ways) on the conception of children, and a starvation deaths of so many children also reduces the subsequent generations, several things become clear.

Either the starvation problem moves around, even within a stressed, rural, underdeveloped society, so that approximately the same number of are starving at any given time, but overall, the affected populations survive; or the starved populations vanish one after the other, leaving whole areas depopulated; or, the famine numbers are mostly hot air.

If the so-called have-nots are starving to death, soon there will be no more have-nots. My view is, there are no have-nots in the first place; there are those who have more, and those who have less. Either way, the idea that somehow the numerous (that is, 12 to 15 per cent of the world's population) have-nots are going to rise up and slay the much more numerous, much better armed haves, is a gigantic lie attached to the various political and economic agendas of the liars who repeat it.


TOPICS: Agriculture; Business/Economy; Society
KEYWORDS: prediction; predictions; predictionthread
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1 posted on 12/31/2004 12:46:20 PM PST by SunkenCiv
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To: Berosus; blam; Do not dub me shapka broham; Ernest_at_the_Beach; FairOpinion; Seadog Bytes; ...

This was my New Year's Eve gift to posterity. Forgot about it until just now while I was fiddling with my links page. More to come in this topic.


2 posted on 03/21/2005 12:12:30 AM PST by SunkenCiv (last updated my FreeRepublic profile on Sunday, March 13, 2005.)
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To: SunkenCiv

So when do I get my flying Jetsons' car?


3 posted on 03/21/2005 12:14:37 AM PST by ValerieUSA
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To: SunkenCiv

I promise not to kill anyone for it. Please pass the meatloaf.


4 posted on 03/21/2005 12:16:40 AM PST by ValerieUSA
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To: ValerieUSA

As soon as I get "daughter Judy" in the back seat of said car. ;')


5 posted on 03/21/2005 12:24:26 AM PST by SunkenCiv (last updated my FreeRepublic profile on Sunday, March 13, 2005.)
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To: SunkenCiv

No way will Rosie let you get away with anything.
Curses! Foiled again.
**Heavens to Murgatroyd! I'm mixing cartoon metaphors.. and probably mispelling them, too!**


6 posted on 03/21/2005 12:31:17 AM PST by ValerieUSA
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To: ValerieUSA

"He seen me comin',
sneaked up from behind,
switched off my vision
and left me stone blind.
Could not see to blast him,
here's the ending of my tale,
he ran off with number three,
and I cry to no avail, and that's why,
why I got these Robot Blues,
down in my heart compartment,
down in my old magnetic sole shoes..."

Incredible String Band, "Robot Blues"

(speaking of mixing metaphors)


7 posted on 03/21/2005 12:43:02 AM PST by SunkenCiv (last updated my FreeRepublic profile on Sunday, March 13, 2005.)
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China steps up pressure to lift arms embargo
EU Observer | Dec 3 2004 | Andrew Beatty
Posted on 12/06/2004 11:00:32 AM PST by SunkenCiv
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1295559/posts

EU becomes China's biggest trading partner
EU Observer | January 10 2005 | Richard Carter
Posted on 01/12/2005 7:54:57 PM PST by SunkenCiv
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1319693/posts


8 posted on 03/21/2005 8:52:53 AM PST by SunkenCiv (last updated my FreeRepublic profile on Sunday, March 13, 2005.)
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To: SunkenCiv

This does sound rather sad. I'd kill myself, but then I'd just be another statistic.
Actually, either way I'll be a statistic.


9 posted on 03/21/2005 9:19:49 PM PST by TradicalRC (I'd rather live in a Christian theocracy than a secular democracy.)
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To: TradicalRC

Aw, you'll always be more than a statistic to all of us. :')


10 posted on 03/21/2005 10:21:53 PM PST by SunkenCiv (last updated my FreeRepublic profile on Sunday, March 13, 2005.)
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BTTT!

11 posted on 09/18/2005 5:06:17 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Down with Dhimmicrats! I last updated by FR profile on Sunday, August 14, 2005.)
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To: KevinDavis; dervish; Convert from ECUSA; Coleus; Cincinatus' Wife
If the so-called have-nots are starving to death, soon there will be no more have-nots. My view is, there are no have-nots in the first place; there are those who have more, and those who have less. Either way, the idea that somehow the numerous (that is, 12 to 15 per cent of the world's population) have-nots are going to rise up and slay the much more numerous, much better armed haves, is a gigantic lie attached to the various political and economic agendas of the liars who repeat it.
just a BTTT with some emphasis.
12 posted on 11/25/2005 6:23:54 PM PST by SunkenCiv (Down with Dhimmicrats! I last updated my FR profile on Wednesday, November 2, 2005.)
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Post your predictions for 2006
12/16/05 | Perdogg
Posted on 12/16/2005 2:50:00 PM PST by Perdogg
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1541998/posts
(mine)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1541998/posts?page=78#78

In the stars, the cards and the grounds -- psychics eye the future
San Francisco Chronicle | 12/30/5 | Singeli Agnew, Matt Villano, Sudhin S. Thanawala
Posted on 12/30/2005 12:45:05 PM PST by SmithL
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/1549483/posts


13 posted on 12/30/2005 7:59:34 PM PST by SunkenCiv ("In silence, and at night, the Conscience feels that life should soar to nobler ends than Power.")
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To: SmithL; Perdogg; presidio9; ncountylee

just pimpin' my vanity topic. I predict I won't do it again in 2005. ;')

Crystal ball for 2006 sees giant asteroid crash (or not)
AFP | 1/1/6
Posted on 12/31/2005 11:47:07 PM PST by presidio9
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1550093/posts

Predictions for 2006 - Part II [Art Bell Alert]
coasttocoastam | Jan. 1, 2006
Posted on 01/01/2006 1:04:56 PM PST by ncountylee
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1550316/posts


14 posted on 01/01/2006 5:40:38 PM PST by SunkenCiv ("In silence, and at night, the Conscience feels that life should soar to nobler ends than Power.")
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To: SunkenCiv

One century from now, Hillary Rodham Clinton will be dead, and historians will wonder what all the fuss was.


15 posted on 01/01/2006 9:03:04 PM PST by presidio9 (Islam is as Islam does)
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To: presidio9

:')


16 posted on 01/02/2006 7:54:43 AM PST by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/pledge)
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The population of the Earth was about one billion in 1900, and that number shocked and sickened the folks who had tried to turn the entire planet into EuroDisney. We hit the three billion mark about the time I started seventh grade. Sometime in the past ten or so years we've crossed (variously reported) six or possibly seven billion.

IMHO, the population of the US will rise to at least 1.5 billion, and as much as 3 billion, by 2100 A.D. China's population will decline to about 300 million by that time. India's population will peak in about thirty years, and then begin to decline, while the Moslem population of India rises as a percentage. The population of the Middle East will rise somewhat, but with most of the increase being in Egypt, Turkey, and Iran.

Western Europe's European population will decline, in some places vanish, replaced by African and Middle Eastern immigrants, except in Italy. Even at current rates, and figuring for longevity and attrition, by 2100 Germany's population will exceed Russia's.

Enough’s Enough
www.wvmcattle.com | 2007 | Lee Pitts
Posted on 01/19/2007 9:57:15 PM EST by B4Ranch
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/1770546/posts


17 posted on 01/20/2007 10:43:36 PM PST by SunkenCiv ("In theory, theory and practice are the same, but in practice, they're not." -- John Rummel)
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Here's a link to my following year's gift to posterity. :')

Wager between Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich
The Free Dictionary | since 1998 | Farlex (?)
Posted on 12/24/2005 10:57:56 PM EST by SunkenCiv
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1546757/posts


18 posted on 01/20/2007 10:52:33 PM PST by SunkenCiv ("In theory, theory and practice are the same, but in practice, they're not." -- John Rummel)
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Coming suicide epidemic in China as population collapses
The Daily Telegraph (UK) | January 26, 2007 | by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Posted on 01/26/2007 11:42:42 PM EST by aculeus
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1774468/posts


19 posted on 01/26/2007 11:15:13 PM PST by SunkenCiv ("In theory, theory and practice are the same, but in practice, they're not." -- John Rummel)
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To: grey_whiskers

(Vanity) As the World Turns, or The Wild, Wild, East
grey_whiskers | 2-10-2007 | grey_whiskers
Posted on 02/10/2007 9:32:33 PM EST by grey_whiskers
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/1782771/posts


20 posted on 02/11/2007 5:34:56 PM PST by SunkenCiv (I last updated my profile on Saturday, February 3, 2007. https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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