Skip to comments.The World a Century from Now
Posted on 12/31/2004 12:46:20 PM PST by SunkenCiv
Will Limits Of The Earth's Resources Control Human Numbers?The current world population is about 6 billion. Based on the present growth rate of 1.5% per year, the population is projected to double in approximately 46 years (PRB, 1996). Because population growth can not continue indefinitely, society can either voluntarily control its numbers or let natural forces such as disease, malnutrition, and other disasters limit human numbers (Pimentel et al., 1994a; Bartlett, 1997-98). Increasing human numbers, especially in urban areas, and increasing food, water, air, and soil pollution by pathogenic organisms and chemicals, are causing a rapid increase in the prevalence of disease and number of human deaths (WHO, 1992, 1995; Murray and Lopez, 1996; Pimentel et al., 1998a). Currently, food shortages are critical, with more than 3 billion humans malnourished worldwide -- the largest number and proportion ever (FAO, 1992a, b; Neisheim, 1993; McMichael, 1993; Maberly, 1994; Bouis, 1995; WHO, 1995; WHO 1996). An estimated 40,000 children die each day due to malnutrition and other diseases (WHO, 1992)... The U.S. population doubled during the past 60 years from 135 million to more than 270 million (NGS, 1995) and, based on the current U.S. growth rate of approximately 1% per year (USBC, 1996), is projected to double again to 540 million in the next 70 years . China's population is 1.3 billion and, despite the governmental policy of permitting only one child per couple, it is still growing at an annual rate of 1.2% (SSBPRC, 1990). India has nearly 1 billion people living on approximately one-third of the land of either the United States or China. India's current population growth rate is 1.9%, which translates to a doubling time of 37 years (PRB, 1996). Together, China and India constitute more than one-third of the total world population. Given the steady decline in per capita resources, it is unlikely that India, China, and the world population in total will double.
David Pimentel, O. Bailey, P. Kim,
E. Mullaney, J. Calabrese,
L. Walman, F. Nelson, and X. Yao
February 25, 1999
This is equivalent to 10,000 deaths a day, or 3.65 million a year, from "starvation and hunger-related illness"; which is a much more defendable figure for the number of people who die because they literally do not have enough to eat, together with those who die from protein or vitamin deficiency diseases like kwashiorkor and beri-beri (as opposed to the parasitic and infectious diseases mentioned earlier), People do die of starvation (inanition) in the world today (under capitalism there is always a famine somewhere in the world - last year it was North-East Brazil, this year it is Ethiopia) but nowhere near 30 million. To quote such a demonstrably exaggerated figure is to weaken the credibility of those who do so, and is quite unnecessary since the case against capitalism on this question is strong enough without exaggerating. Assuming that the figure for people who don't get enough to eat is at all correct (780,000,000 or 780 million) with a current world population of over six billion, it is a wonder that the starving population survives at all. Since their numbers shrink -- among the young, for the most part -- the death of 175 million in twelve years (or the lower figure of 45 million) would whittle down that 780 million figure. Since malnutrition also has an impact (in at least a couple of ways) on the conception of children, and a starvation deaths of so many children also reduces the subsequent generations, several things become clear.
Either the starvation problem moves around, even within a stressed, rural, underdeveloped society, so that approximately the same number of are starving at any given time, but overall, the affected populations survive; or the starved populations vanish one after the other, leaving whole areas depopulated; or, the famine numbers are mostly hot air.
If the so-called have-nots are starving to death, soon there will be no more have-nots. My view is, there are no have-nots in the first place; there are those who have more, and those who have less. Either way, the idea that somehow the numerous (that is, 12 to 15 per cent of the world's population) have-nots are going to rise up and slay the much more numerous, much better armed haves, is a gigantic lie attached to the various political and economic agendas of the liars who repeat it.
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This was my New Year's Eve gift to posterity. Forgot about it until just now while I was fiddling with my links page. More to come in this topic.
So when do I get my flying Jetsons' car?
I promise not to kill anyone for it. Please pass the meatloaf.
As soon as I get "daughter Judy" in the back seat of said car. ;')
No way will Rosie let you get away with anything.
Curses! Foiled again.
**Heavens to Murgatroyd! I'm mixing cartoon metaphors.. and probably mispelling them, too!**
"He seen me comin',
sneaked up from behind,
switched off my vision
and left me stone blind.
Could not see to blast him,
here's the ending of my tale,
he ran off with number three,
and I cry to no avail, and that's why,
why I got these Robot Blues,
down in my heart compartment,
down in my old magnetic sole shoes..."
Incredible String Band, "Robot Blues"
(speaking of mixing metaphors)
China steps up pressure to lift arms embargo
EU Observer | Dec 3 2004 | Andrew Beatty
Posted on 12/06/2004 11:00:32 AM PST by SunkenCiv
EU becomes China's biggest trading partner
EU Observer | January 10 2005 | Richard Carter
Posted on 01/12/2005 7:54:57 PM PST by SunkenCiv
This does sound rather sad. I'd kill myself, but then I'd just be another statistic.
Actually, either way I'll be a statistic.
Aw, you'll always be more than a statistic to all of us. :')
If the so-called have-nots are starving to death, soon there will be no more have-nots. My view is, there are no have-nots in the first place; there are those who have more, and those who have less. Either way, the idea that somehow the numerous (that is, 12 to 15 per cent of the world's population) have-nots are going to rise up and slay the much more numerous, much better armed haves, is a gigantic lie attached to the various political and economic agendas of the liars who repeat it.just a BTTT with some emphasis.
Post your predictions for 2006
12/16/05 | Perdogg
Posted on 12/16/2005 2:50:00 PM PST by Perdogg
In the stars, the cards and the grounds -- psychics eye the future
San Francisco Chronicle | 12/30/5 | Singeli Agnew, Matt Villano, Sudhin S. Thanawala
Posted on 12/30/2005 12:45:05 PM PST by SmithL
just pimpin' my vanity topic. I predict I won't do it again in 2005. ;')
Crystal ball for 2006 sees giant asteroid crash (or not)
AFP | 1/1/6
Posted on 12/31/2005 11:47:07 PM PST by presidio9
Predictions for 2006 - Part II [Art Bell Alert]
coasttocoastam | Jan. 1, 2006
Posted on 01/01/2006 1:04:56 PM PST by ncountylee
One century from now, Hillary Rodham Clinton will be dead, and historians will wonder what all the fuss was.
The population of the Earth was about one billion in 1900, and that number shocked and sickened the folks who had tried to turn the entire planet into EuroDisney. We hit the three billion mark about the time I started seventh grade. Sometime in the past ten or so years we've crossed (variously reported) six or possibly seven billion.
IMHO, the population of the US will rise to at least 1.5 billion, and as much as 3 billion, by 2100 A.D. China's population will decline to about 300 million by that time. India's population will peak in about thirty years, and then begin to decline, while the Moslem population of India rises as a percentage. The population of the Middle East will rise somewhat, but with most of the increase being in Egypt, Turkey, and Iran.
Western Europe's European population will decline, in some places vanish, replaced by African and Middle Eastern immigrants, except in Italy. Even at current rates, and figuring for longevity and attrition, by 2100 Germany's population will exceed Russia's.
www.wvmcattle.com | 2007 | Lee Pitts
Posted on 01/19/2007 9:57:15 PM EST by B4Ranch
Here's a link to my following year's gift to posterity. :')
Wager between Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich
The Free Dictionary | since 1998 | Farlex (?)
Posted on 12/24/2005 10:57:56 PM EST by SunkenCiv
Coming suicide epidemic in China as population collapses
The Daily Telegraph (UK) | January 26, 2007 | by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Posted on 01/26/2007 11:42:42 PM EST by aculeus
(Vanity) As the World Turns, or The Wild, Wild, East
grey_whiskers | 2-10-2007 | grey_whiskers
Posted on 02/10/2007 9:32:33 PM EST by grey_whiskers
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