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Pheobe Debates The Theory of Evolution
Original scene from the show... Friends. ^ | NA | NA

Posted on 07/24/2003 1:55:39 PM PDT by Mr.Atos

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To: Doctor Stochastic
Thank you oh so very much for your vote of confidence! I always learn from your posts either directly or because you mention something that causes me to do a lot of research (LOL!) The bottom line is that I very much enjoy our agreements and our disagreements. Life would be boring if we always agreed.
2,421 posted on 08/10/2003 8:44:58 PM PDT by Alamo-Girl
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To: <1/1,000,000th%
Jeepers! Thirty years of organized basketball. I imagine you've had a number of physical injuries to overcome in all that time.
2,422 posted on 08/10/2003 8:47:08 PM PDT by Alamo-Girl
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To: RadioAstronomer
The best fit we have today is that a gravitational wave propagates at the speed of light. Two experiments that validated General Relativity over Newton's theory (Law) were the measurements of the deflection of light by our sun and the precession of the orbit of the planet Mercury.

I am aware that the last two disprove the formula of gravitation given by Newton. However, my thinking is that while such a view of gravitation may fit better with relativity, that such has not been proven yet. It probably does fit better with other things we have learned since, but better fit is again an assumption. My question was more regarding experimental evidence and how such an experiment could be accomplished.

2,423 posted on 08/10/2003 8:50:09 PM PDT by gore3000 (Intelligent people do not believe in evolution.)
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To: gore3000; Stultis
am aware that the last two disprove the formula of gravitation given by Newton. However, my thinking is that while such a view of gravitation may fit better with relativity, that such has not been proven yet. It probably does fit better with other things we have learned since, but better fit is again an assumption.

Absolutely. Remember, a theory will always be a theory no matter how much evidence in accumulated. I know there is still much to discover. My original post was that even though it's called a Law of gravitation, it does not fit all of the observed phenomena.

2,424 posted on 08/10/2003 8:55:58 PM PDT by RadioAstronomer
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To: Stultis
I don't consider evolution to be a "scientific fact," but then neither is heliocentrism.

You deny heliocentrism? On what basis? What is the alternative? Geocentrism has certainly been proven false.

Actually scientists DO "think stuff up". There would be no point in doing the experiments or making the observations otherwise. Those are tests.

You are agreeing with me while saying you disagree. Scientists do think up stuff but then they have to back it up. Everyone thinks up stuff. Heck if thinking up stuff was what science was about perhaps the Enquirer or the Star should be our greatest source of scientific information. I do not believe that's the case.

2,425 posted on 08/10/2003 8:56:10 PM PDT by gore3000 (Intelligent people do not believe in evolution.)
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To: RadioAstronomer
Remember, a theory will always be a theory no matter how much evidence in accumulated.

That may be so in astronomy where tests and experiments are really hard to make, however, I do not think that is the case in other scientific fields where tests and experiments do indeed give proof of how things work.

2,426 posted on 08/10/2003 8:59:49 PM PDT by gore3000 (Intelligent people do not believe in evolution.)
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To: gore3000; Stultis
You deny heliocentrism? On what basis? What is the alternative? Geocentrism has certainly been proven false.

That is not quite the case. You can use the Earth as your frame of reference. In fact, one of my orbit classes at NASA did exactly that. We used the Earth as a frame of reference instead of the sun when we described the celestial sphere. (It described the Sun orbiting the Earth in that reference frame.)

2,427 posted on 08/10/2003 9:00:53 PM PDT by RadioAstronomer
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To: Stultis
Thank for the heads up to your discussion on Popper!

Indeed, the bar for "proof" is high beyond reach. Even in relativity and quantum mechanics, reference is made to accuracy within certain limits and the word "proof" does not appear.

The most reliable fundamental physical constants are also shown to certain limits: NIST

However, to most people, the distinction probably doesn't make much difference since they can and do rely on the most current thinking in various matters.

2,428 posted on 08/10/2003 9:03:47 PM PDT by Alamo-Girl
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To: gore3000
That may be so in astronomy where tests and experiments are really hard to make, however, I do not think that is the case in other scientific fields where tests and experiments do indeed give proof of how things work.

I disagree. Even what "stuff" is made of and how it behaves is a theory. It all falls down to the four fundamental forces and the theories that describe them.

2,429 posted on 08/10/2003 9:03:55 PM PDT by RadioAstronomer
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To: AndrewC
AndrewC, thank you for explaining your motive... indeed, I visualized it as an attack on genetic programming simply because it had the word "genetic" or "evolutionary" in it. The design issue related to genetic programming is all about semantics anyway (much like is an individual beehive a design by mindless bees, or "design by proxy" by God?).

No apology is needed--just got upset by the defensiveness. Thanks for explaining things; it really did help out, and I hope we can have better debates now that we know each other's motives better. BTW, I'm not in genetic programming--which is more like a subset of the AI field--but in computer modelling of biology/evolution. The two can have some overlap, though.

Maybe you can teach me the combinatronics behind the old "if you get 30 people in a room, the chances are almost 100% that two people will share the same birthday" trick?
2,430 posted on 08/10/2003 9:28:01 PM PDT by Nataku X (Never give Bush any power you wouldn't want to give to Hillary.)
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To: Nakatu X
As AC hasn't posted yet:

Probability for two people not to share the same birth day 364/365. (The second person must miss the first's birthday.) For three people: (364/365)*(363/365). (The third person has only 363 days free.) For the fourth, (364/365)*(363/364)*(362/365) etc. This is carried out until the number is less than 0.50.

The idea is that the probability of 2 (or more) people having the same same birthday is 1-(probability that they have separate birthdays.) Note that each new person excludes another day. That's why it only takes a few.
2,431 posted on 08/10/2003 9:46:10 PM PDT by Doctor Stochastic (Vegetabilisch = chaotisch is der Charakter der Modernen. - Friedrich Schlegel)
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To: gore3000
You deny heliocentrism?

Oh, of course not. I defined my terms very carefully. I said that it's not a "scientific fact," which I defined in turn as being a "well confirmed observation." We do not directly observe heliocentrism, we infer it from a multitude of individual facts. Or, rather, more formally, as Popper would put it, we hypothesise heliocentrism and find that it passes the test of the facts.

2,432 posted on 08/10/2003 9:53:19 PM PDT by Stultis
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To: gore3000
The problem I have with the skeptical view is not that I think we know everything we need to know. We certainly do not and it would be a silly claim to say so. However, what I disagree with is that we cannot have certainty about anything.

Popper wasn't a skeptic, he was a philosophical realist. And we indeed cannot have certainty (in the straightforward sense of the term) in ANY claim about the natural world because our information is ALWAYS incomplete and there is ALWAYS the possiblity that new facts or knowledge will undermine our previous claims.

This is NOT skepticism. It does NOT mean that our knowledge of the natural world is not good, or valid, or useful, or anything of the like. All it means is that our knowledge is always subject to improvement or revision.

2,433 posted on 08/10/2003 10:02:07 PM PDT by Stultis
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To: Nakatu X; Doctor Stochastic
Look here:

http://www.kasprzyk.demon.co.uk/pdf/ProbBirthday.pdf

I though the graph would be a nice addition to your explanation Doctor. :-)
2,434 posted on 08/10/2003 10:16:47 PM PDT by RadioAstronomer
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To: RadioAstronomer
Thanks.
2,435 posted on 08/10/2003 10:20:30 PM PDT by Doctor Stochastic (Vegetabilisch = chaotisch is der Charakter der Modernen. - Friedrich Schlegel)
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To: Nakatu X; Doctor Stochastic; RadioAstronomer
No problem.

And it looks like the birthday puzzle has been thoroughly analyzed. I came up with the same formula that the paper presented by RA had. My calculator blows up at about 69!, and I didn't want to figure things out usings logs, so I cheated and used Excel.

2	364	365	0.997260274
3	363	365	0.994520548
4	362	365	0.991780822
5	361	365	0.989041096
6	360	365	0.98630137
7	359	365	0.983561644
8	358	365	0.980821918
9	357	365	0.978082192
10	356	365	0.975342466
11	355	365	0.97260274
12	354	365	0.969863014
13	353	365	0.967123288
14	352	365	0.964383562
15	351	365	0.961643836
16	350	365	0.95890411
17	349	365	0.956164384
18	348	365	0.953424658
19	347	365	0.950684932
20	346	365	0.947945205
21	345	365	0.945205479
22	344	365	0.942465753
23	343	365	0.939726027
24	342	365	0.936986301
25	341	365	0.934246575
26	340	365	0.931506849
27	339	365	0.928767123
28	338	365	0.926027397
29	337	365	0.923287671
30	336	365	0.920547945	


			0.293683757	0.706316243

P.S. No stinking leap years.

2,436 posted on 08/10/2003 11:07:31 PM PDT by AndrewC
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To: gore3000
..Seems to me that our trips to the Moon, and probes to other planets prove the theory quite well. ..

Just be glad (as I'm sure you are) that we're not living in a Muslim society.

Read the first paragraph or so of Dobzhansky's classsic essay (actually, it would do you good to read and understand all of it) Nothing makes sense in Biology except in the Light of Evolution.

The heliocentric *theory* is supported by observation, but according to Martin Luther it's not in agreement with Scripture:

People gave ear to an upstart astrologer who strove to show that the earth revolves, not the heavens or the firmament, the sun and the moon . . . This fool wishes to reverse the entire science of astronomy, but sacred Scripture tells us (Joshua l0:l3) that Joshua commanded the sun to stand still, and not the earth..

Source

Seems to me that our trips to the Moon, and probes to other planets prove the theory quite well

Isn't this exactly the same way in which dna analysis 'proves' the truth of evolution? The theory makes predictions, eg. 'any dna that is common to people and orangutangs will also be found in chimps and gorillas', and these predictions are found to be true.

How is that different from any other sort of science?

2,437 posted on 08/10/2003 11:10:47 PM PDT by Virginia-American
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To: gore3000
Honestly, scientists can never shoot for absolute certainty. They can shoot for high statistical probability that an observation will be repeated; however, there is always the tiniest possibility that something else might crop up. At least this is how my junior high school science teacher explained it 25 years ago. Of course, nowadays junior high school teachers (and, indeed, any public school teachers) are barely able to sign their own names so I can understand where misunderstandings might arise.
2,438 posted on 08/11/2003 3:59:25 AM PDT by Junior (Killed a six pack ... just to watch it die.)
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To: AndrewC; Doctor Stochastic; RadioAstronomer
Thanks so much; now I finally understand! :o) Like most people, couldn't get beyond adding up the 1/365 probablities! :-)
2,439 posted on 08/11/2003 4:07:42 AM PDT by Nataku X (Never give Bush any power you wouldn't want to give to Hillary.)
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To: PatrickHenry
"There's no law of nature that says all the truly vital issues have to be on the table from the beginning."

Agreed and never said there was. Just trying to balance the perspective for everyone else who may be reading these threads but not participating as closely in the negotiations and following every detail.

This could have been added after the 30 day review, if necessary. That's why I recommended the freeze of the agreement while we had 99.9% agreement from everyone, including you, along with the 30 day review.

Same can always be said..."If you want to look at it your way, that's up to you." Fair and balanced.

2,440 posted on 08/11/2003 4:44:24 AM PDT by NewLand (The truth can't be ignored...but many times is feared and avoided)
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