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To: SampleMan; Tinian
Here is the TWA-800 timeline I created several years ago on FR. In my last post I was working from a faulty memory... the actual radar sweep time is 4.65 seconds.


These facts were well known... I created a timeline of the event back in September of 2002 that accounted for all of the known facts at that time. I reproduce it for you here. You attention is particularly pointed to the entry listed in red...


Since I made a typo in the original, here is a corrected version of the Swordmaker timeline:

---------------------

Let's see if we can construct Asmodeus' oft demanded timeline that our math seems to indicate occurred rather than his wacked out theory.

20:31:00 - Plane flying normally, altitude 13,400 ft., climbing at 33 ft/sec.

20:31:04 - Possible ground-to-air missile launch. Rate of climb accelerates to Mach 2.1.

20:31:07 - Mike Wire notices flare like object rising over house and arcing to left. in the next 8 seconds many more people notice streak, firework, etc.

20:31:10 - Major Fred Meyer sees "meteor like" object flash acorss his field of view.

20:31:12 - ~13,800 ft. - 0 sec. Last transponder return, everything normal, Aircraft climbing at 33 ft./second.

20:31:13 - ~13,840 ft. - ~1 sec. Missile strikes TWA800 on left side at approximately seat row 16-17 transects the passenger cabin spewing partially burned solid rocket fuel (and leaving a red residue on seats in this area), taking out passengers and seats in rows 17-18 and exits aircraft through right side. VDR ends in loud, strange sound. Bright white Ordnance type explosion occurs just after missile exits thin walled cabin. Blast places massive overpressure on nose of aircraft and opens wide gap in side of aircraft. Parts of missile continue on momentum at speed approaching MACH 2 at a vector 190 degrees from north, ejecta from aircraft including seats, passengers, luggage to eventually land in "crosswind blast debris" field. The blast imparts a slightly more eastward vector for the ejecta which combined with the ejecta's already present eastward momentum results in the ejecta coming to rest about 175 degrees from the point of ejection.

20:31:14 - ~13,880 ft. - ~2 sec. 400+ MPH winds acting on the gaping holes in aircraft fuselage causes the "unzip" of the aluminum skin of the nose. Windforce bends the nose up and breaks the "keel" of the fuselage. Signals to control surfaces and engines cease when wires are broken and engines revert to idle. Drag is no longer being counteracted by the thrust of the engines. The plane slows drastically.

20:31:15 - ~13, 900 ft - ~3 sec. Drag pulls the nose up and away from the rest of the fuselage and breaks loose on the right first and falls away to the left where it is still partially attached, twisting the aircraft toward the left and starts to fall pulling the left wing down, changing the vector of lift imparting a strong leftward force on the aircraft. Unbalanced drag toward the left is enormous. This accounts for the sudden leftward change in aircraft vector.

20:31:16:49 - ~13,890 ft - 4.49 sec. First post IE radar return. - The nose swings under and to the right and breaks completely loose and continues on a momentum driven ballistic fall slightly to the right (about 3 degrees) of the original aircraft vector. The noseless aircraft losing both the balance necessary for proper flight AND the thrust of the engines overcoming drag, pitches rapidly up and stalls. it may climb a very small amount during the pitch up before stall.

20:31:17 - ~13,860 ft. - ~5 sec. Gravity's inexorable pull starts the plane on its final trajectory. Drag is slowing the forward velocity and the uncontrolled aircraft is on either a ballistic fall or a somewhat aerodynamic fall.

20:31:21:13 - ~13,500 ft. - 9.13 sec. Second post IE radar return. - Uncontrolled plane pitches and yaws, lift occasionally pulls the plane in different vectors... this time a strong rightward vector. Drag continues to rip and rend the airframe just in front of the wing.

20:31:25:72 - ~12,300 ft. - 13.72 sec. Third post IE radar return. - More gyrations... now vectored back to the right.

20:31:30:37 - ~10,900 ft. - 18.37 sec. Fourth post IE radar return. - Falling steeply now. Much of the forward momentum is gone due to drag. Structural damage is weakening the Center Wing Tank's integrity and wings are no longer as strongly attached to the remaining fuselage.

20:31:32:?? - ~10,050 ft. - ~20 sec. Terminal velocity achieved of ~450 ft./second.

20:31:34:97 - ~9,100 ft. - 22.97 sec. Fifth post IE radar return. Stress is taking its toll on the wingroots. The Center Wing Tank structural members are buckling under the whipping of the plane rolling and pitching. Fuel is now leaking into the area around the Wing roots from the full wing tanks.

20:31:36:?? - ~8,500 ft. - ~24 sec. The aircraft takes a VERY sharp turn to the right (South) and one of the wing's fails, breaking away from the fuselage. The aircraft with only one wing starts to spin rapidly, spewing jet fuel and agitating it into the atmosphere, mixing it with air.

20:31:39:64 - ~7,000 ft. - 27.64 sec. Sixth post IE radar return. - Center Wing Tank explodes from spark caused by MECHANICAL breaking of metal. Volatile air-fuel mix surrounding aircraft ignited into Massive Fireball, Hot fireball begins to RISE, while burning plane falls through bottom of Fireball still spewing liquid fuel which ignites on exit from wingtanks.

8:31:43 - Elmer's "Streak of light" crippled plane appears.

20:31:44:29 - ~4,900 ft. - 32.29 sec. Seventh post IE radar return. - Still falling at 450 ft. per second.

20:31:47 - ~3,680 ft - End of streak - Elmer Asmodeus's mythical "Eyewitness Myth" Explosion of Massive Fireball at 5500-7500 feet.

20:31:48:94 - ~2,800 ft. - 36.94 sec. Eighth post IE radar return. - Shortly after the Flight TWA800 falls below the radar horizon and no further radar returns are received.

20:31:55 - ~43 sec. splashdown.

Total Elapsed time from Initiating Event (the missile strike?) = ~43 seconds. Plus or minus 2 seconds.


80 posted on 05/04/2007 9:56:13 PM PDT by Swordmaker (Remember, the proper pronunciation of IE is "AAAAIIIIIEEEEEEE)
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To: Swordmaker
These facts were well known...

You are misusing the word "facts". The type of radar used for ATC is optimized for range. It has a relatively slow sweep, a long pulse width, and relatively low frequency. There is simply no way that such a radar could provide anything more than the spot location of the aircraft. It is not designed to give precise information, nor is it capable of it. The ATC relies on a working transponder to get detailed information.

The damage is not consistent with a MANPAD system and the altitude makes a lock-on by a MANPAD seeker and a subsequent rainbow fly out highly improbable. So what kind of missile was it? Why was a rather large weapon system transported thousands of miles to shoot down a single passenger plane that could have been brought down anywhere? Of what good is a terrorist action if the terrorists don't claim responsibility and explain how they can do it again? What is the government's incentive to attempt to keep hundreds of people quiet (like that's ever worked)?

I'm sorry, I just don't think the missile idea has much behind it. Just as people win the lottery, one in 100 million statistical events do happen.

TWA-800 almost certainly blew up from a spark in the fuel tank, a misidentified bomb close to the fuel tank, or it suffered an even rarer fate such as a meteor strike.

But I'm willing to listen to plausible conjecture on a missile, as long as its plausible.

For example, why would a foreign power donate a multimillion dollar missile system, which would point all fingers back at them, to shoot down a inconsequential target? This is a classic everything to lose, nothing to gain situation. If they wanted to help terrorists, they could simply give them MANPADS and tell them to go anywhere within hundreds of square miles where the airliners would be at a much lower altitude.

88 posted on 05/05/2007 5:29:34 AM PDT by SampleMan (Islamic tolerance is practiced by killing you last.)
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To: Swordmaker
Most conspiracy theorists contend that the 747 exploded in a huge fireball as portrayed in the following graphic when struck by a missile at about 13,800 feet at approximately 8:21:12.

In effect, you disagree in part by alleging that although the 747 was struck by a missile at approximately the same time and altitude as contended by most of the conspiracy theorists, the huge fireball explosion took place 8:31:39:64 at 7,000 feet.

It's interesting that your 7,000 foot altitude allegation for the huge fireball explosion is compatible with the detailed report personally prepared by airborne witnesses Sven Faret and Ken Wendell .

However, it is your speculation that a missile was fired at the 747 at 8:31:04 - APPROXIMATELY THIRTY SIx SECONDS BEFORE THE HUGE FIREBALL EXPLOSION that appears to be in conflict with the vast majority, if not all, of the streak witness reports.

Some examples:

Witness 108 - "in southwest he saw what appeared to be a flare rise up from below the tree line." "rising at a 65 degree angle at a steady speed." "the flare left behind a smoke trail which was bluish/gray in color." "The flare rose upward and then arced downward." "the flare descended from the arc for approximately one second and exploded into an orange ball."

Witness 151 - "he described what he thought was a flare" "he described the flare as a white wispy trail that went straight up." "he followed the flare for about 5 seconds, then the flare turned into an orange burst."

.Witness 157 - "noticed a red flare or firework trailing white smoke ascending over the tree line". "Approximately seven to ten seconds later he observed a large fireball erupt"

Witness 174 - "saw a skyrocket type object streak up into the night sky from behind Sheffield Island. The skyrocket had an orange contrail which had a continuous brightness." "A few seconds later, after the skyrocket contrail disappeared, he saw a large orange fireball appear"

Witness 179 - "she observed an object ...which looked like a flare or a firework going up. She thought at first it was a firework which was a dud because it arced and went down." "she observed the object climb in an erratic fashion for about five seconds at which point she noticed an explosion"

Witness 484 - "for approximately ten seconds, observed the object traveling in an arc from her lower right to upper left. The object disappeared for approximately one second and then observed a large explosion in the same area where the object had disappeared."

Witness 497 - "observed what he thought was a red flare appear and ascend in the sky." "the red flare-like object appeared to be moving straight up at a steady, high rate of speed." "the object's shape, color and speed remained constant for approximately four to five seconds." "At this time, the object disappeared in an intense bright white explosion.

Witness 692 - [Pilot of an H-60 helicopter, flying a night refueling mission (Maj. Meyer)] "saw a streak of red light moving very fast from his right to his left..described the streak of light as having the trajectory and image of a shooting star. The streak moved from a higher elevation to a lower elevation in a gently descending curve. He observed the streak for one or two seconds after which he saw an explosion."

91 posted on 05/05/2007 2:25:38 PM PDT by Hal1950
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To: Swordmaker

Very impressive, thanks for posting.


210 posted on 05/10/2007 4:45:04 PM PDT by jpsb
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