The Guild 8-29-2003 Say Goodbye to Summer

[Hillary's Lovely Legs]

"I can tell you my love for you will still be strong After the boys of summer have gone." -- Don Henley, "The Boys of Summer"

As Labor Day weekend approaches, the 2004 presidential campaign is taking shape. The days are getting shorter and the fortunes of some Democratic candidates who were hot in the spring may be beginning to fade. Some of the so-called top-tier Democratic candidates seeking to challenge Bush have failed to catch fire with voters in the important early primary states. Meanwhile, polls suggest that President Bush is vulnerable. News reports are for the first time portraying him as being on the defensive on foreign policy -- an issue that had been his strength.

Recent polls by Zogby International and Newsweek show that President Bush's job approval rating slipped over the summer, pegging him at just above 50 percent. At the same time, the public's anxiety over the administration's handling of Iraq -- from the number of soldiers being killed to the impact on the federal budget -- continues to rise.

The Zogby poll also points to another troubling sign for the president. Fewer people are saying the president deserves to be re-elected (45 percent) than are saying he does not deserve to be reelected (48 percent). That's a reversal from two and half months ago when the numbers lined up 49 percent to 38 percent in the president's favor. The numbers don't show a slippage among those who support the president as much as they show an increase in the number of people who don't. For those inclined to believe in the vast left-wing conspiracy, even a recent Fox News/Opinion Dynamic poll put the president's "deserves to be reelected" number at 47 percent.

"The president's poll numbers are a reflection of some other numbers: three million jobs lost, a deficit of a half a trillion dollars in one year," said Democratic National Committee spokesman Tony Welch. "And even some Republicans are saying the president has led us into disaster in Iraq. No matter what they say, the polls are an indication and reflection of something real."

Months ago, Bush pollster Matthew Dowd attempted to pre-empt "the sky-is-falling" scenarios. Dowd's analysis included some historical perspective: In 1983, President Reagan trailed possible opponents John Glenn and Walter Mondale in various polls. Reagan went on to beat Mondale in a landslide, winning 49 states. In 1987, President Bush trailed in generic ballot polls, but went on to handily defeat Michael Dukakis the next year. In late 1995 and early 1996, Wall Street Journal and Gallup polls had Bob Dole with a slight lead over Bill Clinton, who went on to defeat Dole in the November election.

It would be ridiculous to predict Bush's demise a year before the votes are cast. But polls do give a reliable snapshot in time of current opinions. That snapshots suggest the president is not as invincible as he once seemed.

The Dem Side

For however much Bush's poll numbers may be lagging, he still compares favorably when stacked up against any of the Democrats, according to recent polls. Some of the so-called top-tier Democrats appear to be fading. Sens. John Edwards (N.C.) and Bob Graham (Fla.) are polling at about 2 percent in New Hampshire -- one point ahead of retired Gen. Wesley Clark, who hasn't announced his intentions, formed an organization, or raised one cent for a campaign. Is it too early to panic? Or should these two big names be thinking about returning their attention to their day jobs in the Senate? Those questions will be asked with ever-greater frequency after Labor Day.

There's no question what the Orlando Sentinel thinks Graham should do. It ran an editorial last week with the headline "Bow Out Bob Graham." Noting that Graham was running neck-and-neck with the Rev. Al Sharpton in Iowa, the paper suggested that "the longer [Graham] continues his long-shot bid for president, the more he risks diminishing his effectiveness as a senator."

The situation in North Carolina is even more interesting, given the competitiveness of the seat even if Edwards decides to stay in the Senate race. Some in the state's Democratic establishment have asked Edwards to declare his intentions by Labor Day. That's not going to happen. George Stephanopoulos reported on Sunday that Edwards aides had predicted in private conversations with him that their candidate would pull out of the Senate race by Sept. 16, the date set for his official presidential announcement. But that may not happen either.

Edwards is cognizant of his problem in the polls, but he and those around him believe it is a problem of name recognition rather than message. They still believe he is the most capable of the Democratic candidates. Campaign aides believe it's going to be between six and eight weeks before they'll see the results of Edwards's campaign ads and "Real Solutions Express" bus tour.

Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) doesn't have to worry about running for reelection because his Senate term doesn't end until 2009. But he does have to worry about slipping poll numbers in New Hampshire. One theory about the reason Kerry plans to make his official entry into the presidential race in front of the USS Yorktown aircraft carrier in Charleston, S.C., is that with former Vermont governor Howard Dean moving ahead in New Hampshire, Kerry is looking to broaden his horizons in the key southern state. Someone from a rival campaign referred to the Kerry announcement as a "gimmickry."

Asked to respond, Kerry spokesman Robert Gibbs quipped: "What criticism? Oh, you mean like going to South Carolina? This just in: there's a primary on Feb. 3! Yes folks, we have adjusted strategy and we will compete in South Carolina." Gibbs also notes that Dean was the only one of the "major" candidates to already be running hundreds of thousands in television ads in New Hampshire and Iowa. (When reminded that Edwards was also running ads, Gibbs chose not to amend his comments.)

The approach of Labor Day also brings nearer the decision by former Gen. Wesley Clark about whether he will run. But as I said in my live discussion last week, Clark's candidacy is looking less and less likely to become a reality. Despite the passion he engenders among some people, he's still largely unknown to the vast majority of the American public. To suggest that a guy who's never run for anything can jump in and build the organization and name recognition, and raise the kind of money he would need to compete and win the nomination this late in the game seems a stretch.

More Gimmicks

Two other candidates are struggling to be competitive in key states by introducing some new "gimmickry" to their serious campaigns. Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt, who is running second to Dean in Iowa polls, has just announced "The Great Gephardt Iowa Pie Challenge," in which he asks voters of the great first caucus state to help him find the tastiest pie in the land.

"Iowa has a long tradition of bringing great pies to our nation," a Gephardt statement reads. "From Stone's 'mile high pie' in Marshalltown to the apple pie at Cronk's Café in Denison, I've only begun to nibble away at the best of what Iowa has to offer - now I need your help in finding all of the great pies in this great state."

I'm not sure this blatant pandering to the sweet-tooth constituency furthers his ambition to be seen as the candidate with the biggest boldest ideas (see Gephardt health care plan), but, hey, it can't hurt.

Lieberman, who is polling in single digits in New Hampshire, announced this week its "See Joe's Car & Go See Nomar!" contest. Voters in New Hampshire who spot one of the campaign's "JoeMobiles" can become eligible for tickets drawing to go see Nomar Garciaparra and the Boston Red Sox by calling or e-mailing the campaign and saying, "I saw the car and love Nomar."

But the bigger question, come the Jan. 27 New Hampshire primary:

Will they love Joe?

[Iowa Granny]

Good Morning.

[mountaineer]

Thanks for the info. Depending on the length of the trip, we may make it to Alsace.

[lodwick]

A college student invited his mother over for dinner. During the meal, his mother couldn't help noticing how beautiful his room mate Julie was. She had long been suspicious of a relationship between him and Julie, and this made her more curious.

Over the course of the evening, while watching the two interact, she started to wonder if there was more between him and Julie than met the eye. Reading his mom’s thoughts, he volunteered, “I know what you must be thinking, but I assure you, Julie and I are just roommates.”

About a week later, Julie came to him and said, “Ever since your mother came to dinner, I can't find the beautiful silver tray. You don't suppose she took it do you?”
He replied, “Well I doubt it, but I'll write her a letter just to be sure.” So he sat down and wrote:

"Dear Mother, I'm not saying you “did” take a silver tray from my house, and I'm not saying you “did not” take a silver tray. But the fact remains that one has been missing ever since you were here for dinner. Love, Your son"
Several days later, he received a letter from his mother which read:

"Dear Son, I'm not saying that you “do” sleep with Julie, and I'm not saying that you “do not” sleep with Julie. But the fact remains that if Julie was sleeping in her own bed she would have found the silver tray by now. Love, Mom"

***

Once God appeared before a couple and offered to take one of them to heaven.

The husband graciously told God to take his wife. His wife was very moved by his generosity.

The God asked him why he offered his wife instead of himself for which he replied, "God!

If you take my wife that will be heaven enough for me!"


Cheers all.

[BigWaveBetty]

Oh no! Barney takes a spill.

President Bush (news - web sites), along with first lady, Laura Bush, and members of the Waco Midway Little League Softball World Series (news - web sites) championship team, react as Bush accidentally drops his dog, Barney, Saturday, Aug. 30, 2003, at TSTC Airfield in Waco, Texas. Bush quickly scooped up the dog who was not injured. (AP Photo/Duane A. Laverty)

Whew, he's ok and gets a kiss.

U.S. President George W. Bush (news - web sites) kisses Barney after he was accidentally dropped before boarding Air Force One in Waco, August 30, 2003. The first couple was departing for Washington after spending nearly a month at their Central Texas ranch in Crawford. REUTERS/Larry Downing

[BigWaveBetty]

But the fact remains that if Julie was sleeping in her own bed she would have found the silver tray by now. Love, Mom"

LOL! Good one.

[BigWaveBetty]

Now that their vacation is over the French are feeling guilty.

Kim Willsher reports from 'Icebox Avenue' in Paris where bodies of the victims from the recent heatwave are being stored as the nation looks for somebody to blame

It was difficult to say whether it was colder inside or outside the vast emergency morgue where French families finally came to claim their forgotten dead, two weeks after the heatwave that killed more than 11,000 people.

Stung by criticism from the government and from their president, Jacques Chirac, that they had gone on holiday or just failed to care for their elderly relatives at home, the families were stricken by grief and guilt. Any questions were met with a frosty silence.

One middle-aged couple who arrived with their two daughters at the makeshift morgue - a refrigerated former food warehouse at the country's national market at Rungis on the outskirts of Paris - pursed their lips, shook their heads and refused to speak. More

I must have missed the report where Jack Chirac spoke to his countrymen about the need to come home and claim their dead and/or to come home or at least call to check on their loved ones.

[Iowa Granny]

Ah, Yes! The old 'hide something in her bed' trick. One of the many little bag of tricks known only by Mothers of sons.

[lodwick]

It was a week or so ago that Jack called out his countrymen for roasting their elderly relatives.

Thanks for the Barney update - that had to smart.

[mountaineer]

Jacques Chiraq, back from a 3 week vacation, today (8/22/03) appeared tanned and rested and stated that 'measures' would be taken following the over 13,000 heatwave deaths. Notice he isn't tanned around the eyes. This guy's was sitting in a beach chair stretched out wearing sunglasses while Paris burned. Looks like a political misstep. (Thanks to Merde in France for this)

[BigWaveBetty]

Thank goodness for the selective reporting from the duplicitous Euro and American press! Otherwise Jack might be...

Where the hell is the media on this story?! If this were happening in America little else would be reported!!

[BigWaveBetty]

The Creature celebrates his 45th birthday.

Who lets their child hang out with the creature?

Pop entertainer Michael Jackson (news) points to fellow entertainers performing during a celebration of his 45th birthday at the Orpheum Theater in Los Angeles August 30, 2003. REUTERS/Robert Galbraith

[BigWaveBetty]

Srinuan will no longer spend his afternoons bumping into tree trunks, fire hydrants and humans, thanks to his new prescription goggles.(AFP/File)

[BigWaveBetty]

I wonder if Lourdes was allowed to watch her mom swap spit with two girls in front of the world.

U.S. singer Madonna (news - web sites) (L) and her husband British director Guy Ritchie (news) (2nd R) arrive with their children Lourdes (2nd L) and Rocco, off the ferry on the Island of Bute in Scotland, where they will be attending British designer Stella McCartney's wedding, August 29, 2003. The wedding of Stella McCartney and her publisher fiancee Alisdhair Willis is expected to take place at Mount Stuart House on Bute, the ancestral home of former Formula One star Johnny Dumfires, on August 30, 2003. REUTERS/Jeff J Mitchell

[BigWaveBetty]

Today is the last day to sign up for the Do Not Call list. If you sign up on Sep. 1st then it will be three more months to activate the Do Not Call.

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Jump over the navigation menu directly to the content. If you would prefer not to use the screen/Braille reader, call toll free 1-888-382-1222.

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Most telemarketers cannot call your telephone number if it is in the National Do Not Call Registry. You can register your home and mobile phone numbers for free. Your registration will be effective for five years.

If you register	Most telemarketers must stop calling and you may file a complaint
June 27 – August 31, 2003	After October 1, 2003
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Register Now

[lodwick]

Good reminder for everyone - I cannot wait to see if this works...then on to the fax-spammers.

[habs4ever]

Larry and Darren have their eyes focused squarely on the issues in post #24 ;-)

[Iowa Granny]

- I cannot wait to see if this works...then on to the fax-spammers.

I registered my fax number, too. Hoping that will solve the fax spam problem.

Do you think they can still send fax spam eventho I'm listed?

[Iowa Granny]

Larry and Darren have their eyes focused squarely on the issues in post #24 ;-)

I noticed that.

I also noticed elsewhere on this site that Nevada is considering a recall. I certainly hope they learn a lesson or two from California before they proceed. This business of allowing anyone with 10 signatures to place their name on the ballot is bothersome.

[habs4ever]

Since it's Nevada, they'll get even more hookers on the ballot ;-)

I came across a story in an old Gourmet about food at the Iowa State Fair, and you folk love your pork,funnel cake, ribbon fries and Bauders ice cream.Other items under discussion were giant turkey legs,kettle korn and maid rite.

I think you can truly say that Iowans(sic) are real swines ;-)

[Iowa Granny]

Political Whores are no more easily recongnizable than than the 'real' kind.

As to the gastronomic delights of the Iowa State Fair: Our State Fair is truely a Celebration of Iowa. We grow food here, and we celebrate the fact at the fair.

I vividly recall the first year they offered Smoked Turkey Legs. Seeing people walking around the fairgrounds chewing on this huge drumstick made me think of cavemen.

In recent years, the Iowa Pork Producers Assn has begun selling Pork Chops on a Stick. I've not had one, so I cannot begin to describe how it's done.