I'm tired, tired of being admired. Tired of love uninspired ... Let's face it, I'm beat!
Posted on 08/29/2003 7:52:25 AM PDT by Hillary's Lovely Legs
"I can tell you my love for you will still be strong After the boys of summer have gone." -- Don Henley, "The Boys of Summer"
As Labor Day weekend approaches, the 2004 presidential campaign is taking shape. The days are getting shorter and the fortunes of some Democratic candidates who were hot in the spring may be beginning to fade. Some of the so-called top-tier Democratic candidates seeking to challenge Bush have failed to catch fire with voters in the important early primary states. Meanwhile, polls suggest that President Bush is vulnerable. News reports are for the first time portraying him as being on the defensive on foreign policy -- an issue that had been his strength.
Recent polls by Zogby International and Newsweek show that President Bush's job approval rating slipped over the summer, pegging him at just above 50 percent. At the same time, the public's anxiety over the administration's handling of Iraq -- from the number of soldiers being killed to the impact on the federal budget -- continues to rise.
The Zogby poll also points to another troubling sign for the president. Fewer people are saying the president deserves to be re-elected (45 percent) than are saying he does not deserve to be reelected (48 percent). That's a reversal from two and half months ago when the numbers lined up 49 percent to 38 percent in the president's favor. The numbers don't show a slippage among those who support the president as much as they show an increase in the number of people who don't. For those inclined to believe in the vast left-wing conspiracy, even a recent Fox News/Opinion Dynamic poll put the president's "deserves to be reelected" number at 47 percent.
"The president's poll numbers are a reflection of some other numbers: three million jobs lost, a deficit of a half a trillion dollars in one year," said Democratic National Committee spokesman Tony Welch. "And even some Republicans are saying the president has led us into disaster in Iraq. No matter what they say, the polls are an indication and reflection of something real."
Months ago, Bush pollster Matthew Dowd attempted to pre-empt "the sky-is-falling" scenarios. Dowd's analysis included some historical perspective: In 1983, President Reagan trailed possible opponents John Glenn and Walter Mondale in various polls. Reagan went on to beat Mondale in a landslide, winning 49 states. In 1987, President Bush trailed in generic ballot polls, but went on to handily defeat Michael Dukakis the next year. In late 1995 and early 1996, Wall Street Journal and Gallup polls had Bob Dole with a slight lead over Bill Clinton, who went on to defeat Dole in the November election.
It would be ridiculous to predict Bush's demise a year before the votes are cast. But polls do give a reliable snapshot in time of current opinions. That snapshots suggest the president is not as invincible as he once seemed.
The Dem Side
For however much Bush's poll numbers may be lagging, he still compares favorably when stacked up against any of the Democrats, according to recent polls. Some of the so-called top-tier Democrats appear to be fading. Sens. John Edwards (N.C.) and Bob Graham (Fla.) are polling at about 2 percent in New Hampshire -- one point ahead of retired Gen. Wesley Clark, who hasn't announced his intentions, formed an organization, or raised one cent for a campaign. Is it too early to panic? Or should these two big names be thinking about returning their attention to their day jobs in the Senate? Those questions will be asked with ever-greater frequency after Labor Day.
There's no question what the Orlando Sentinel thinks Graham should do. It ran an editorial last week with the headline "Bow Out Bob Graham." Noting that Graham was running neck-and-neck with the Rev. Al Sharpton in Iowa, the paper suggested that "the longer [Graham] continues his long-shot bid for president, the more he risks diminishing his effectiveness as a senator."
The situation in North Carolina is even more interesting, given the competitiveness of the seat even if Edwards decides to stay in the Senate race. Some in the state's Democratic establishment have asked Edwards to declare his intentions by Labor Day. That's not going to happen. George Stephanopoulos reported on Sunday that Edwards aides had predicted in private conversations with him that their candidate would pull out of the Senate race by Sept. 16, the date set for his official presidential announcement. But that may not happen either.
Edwards is cognizant of his problem in the polls, but he and those around him believe it is a problem of name recognition rather than message. They still believe he is the most capable of the Democratic candidates. Campaign aides believe it's going to be between six and eight weeks before they'll see the results of Edwards's campaign ads and "Real Solutions Express" bus tour.
Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) doesn't have to worry about running for reelection because his Senate term doesn't end until 2009. But he does have to worry about slipping poll numbers in New Hampshire. One theory about the reason Kerry plans to make his official entry into the presidential race in front of the USS Yorktown aircraft carrier in Charleston, S.C., is that with former Vermont governor Howard Dean moving ahead in New Hampshire, Kerry is looking to broaden his horizons in the key southern state. Someone from a rival campaign referred to the Kerry announcement as a "gimmickry."
Asked to respond, Kerry spokesman Robert Gibbs quipped: "What criticism? Oh, you mean like going to South Carolina? This just in: there's a primary on Feb. 3! Yes folks, we have adjusted strategy and we will compete in South Carolina." Gibbs also notes that Dean was the only one of the "major" candidates to already be running hundreds of thousands in television ads in New Hampshire and Iowa. (When reminded that Edwards was also running ads, Gibbs chose not to amend his comments.)
The approach of Labor Day also brings nearer the decision by former Gen. Wesley Clark about whether he will run. But as I said in my live discussion last week, Clark's candidacy is looking less and less likely to become a reality. Despite the passion he engenders among some people, he's still largely unknown to the vast majority of the American public. To suggest that a guy who's never run for anything can jump in and build the organization and name recognition, and raise the kind of money he would need to compete and win the nomination this late in the game seems a stretch.
More Gimmicks
Two other candidates are struggling to be competitive in key states by introducing some new "gimmickry" to their serious campaigns. Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt, who is running second to Dean in Iowa polls, has just announced "The Great Gephardt Iowa Pie Challenge," in which he asks voters of the great first caucus state to help him find the tastiest pie in the land.
"Iowa has a long tradition of bringing great pies to our nation," a Gephardt statement reads. "From Stone's 'mile high pie' in Marshalltown to the apple pie at Cronk's Café in Denison, I've only begun to nibble away at the best of what Iowa has to offer - now I need your help in finding all of the great pies in this great state."
I'm not sure this blatant pandering to the sweet-tooth constituency furthers his ambition to be seen as the candidate with the biggest boldest ideas (see Gephardt health care plan), but, hey, it can't hurt.
Lieberman, who is polling in single digits in New Hampshire, announced this week its "See Joe's Car & Go See Nomar!" contest. Voters in New Hampshire who spot one of the campaign's "JoeMobiles" can become eligible for tickets drawing to go see Nomar Garciaparra and the Boston Red Sox by calling or e-mailing the campaign and saying, "I saw the car and love Nomar."
But the bigger question, come the Jan. 27 New Hampshire primary:
Will they love Joe?
British fashion designer Stella McCartney is to wed over the weekend(AFP/File/Hugo Philpott)
Women wrestle in chocolate sauce at a Harley-Davidson anniversary party in Milwaukee, August 29, 2003. The legendary American motorcycle company is celebrating its 100th anniversary and is expected to draw 200,000 to 300,000 people to the company's home base over four days. REUTERS/Rick Wilking
California gubernatorial candidates Lawrence Strauss, center and Darrin Scheidle talk with adult film star and fellow candidate Mary Carey, Thursday, Aug. 28, 2003, at an event celebrating 13 years of heart research at the Harbor-UCLA Research and Education Institute in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
Hope I'm not too late.
![](http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/afp/20030830/capt.sge.uzx41.300803132418.photo00.default-228x384.jpg")
Did Stella run out of fabric then improvise with an ACE bandage?
Sure we've read small quotes that indicate no brain activity, but this really gives us a clear view. And now for your reading amusement:
Why I believe Hillary
I think that yesterday and today I have heard a lot of snickering on campus over the following quote, leaked to the press from Hillary Clinton's memoirs:
Gulping for air, I started crying and yelling at him. "What do you mean? What are you saying? Why did you lie to me?" This was her reaction when President Clinton told her that he had been serviced by an intern. As I say, I believe I have heard a lot of snickering. Nothing I could actually suspend anyone for, but when I went to the Chomsky Building yesterday to visit my office, I had the distinct impression that laughter had been had only a moment before by the hangers-on of Summer, and that the laughter had been, well, at one of my heroes.
I am not ashamed to say that. Hillary and I are ... soulmates. I know what it is like to gulp for air like that. Let me give you a reason:
When I was an undergraduate, and as ready to believe boys as first-week freshman, I moved in with a slender young misogynist with firm buttocks and deep blue eyes.
I loved those blue eyes.
He told me he had a history of lighting matches near kerosene and watching linens go up in flames. I told him that he would stop doing that, and that I would make him stop. Once my sister came to visit, and he lit her suitcase on fire. It made such heat and smoke that he had to explain himself to a judge. Of course, I sat in the courtroom, very still, hoping he would charm his way free. "I've caused burning in our relationship," he told the judge as he looked at me. "Let's leave it at that." For some reason, the judge gave him 30 days in jail.
Later our neighborhood post office was burned down. A drugstore, too. And afterward my misogynist friend smelled like postage stamps and Trojans. When I asked him about it, he said he had just mailed a safe-sex kit to a friend in Laramie, Wyoming, where all the kids had was abstinence. I believed him.
Then one afternoon I came home from class and saw our apartment house on fire, and all of the residents blamed Joey - that was my dear, sweet, misogynist's name. It took a long time for him to come to trial, and just before the trial he admitted to me that he was guilty.
And yes, I gulped for air. I gulped, you know? And then I continued to gulp. I hypergulped. The policeman guarding Joey shouted over his walkie-talkie: "Gulping woman!" and paramedics in stethoscopes and pony tails came running.
How could he? I thought. Who would have thought that a slender boy with firm buttocks and deep blue eyes could be a pyromaniac? What were the signs?
And here's another reason Hillary and I are soulmates. I've often thought that, well, I'd make a good president, too. Belverton U. Press
You're right JL, the Guild should rule the world! ;-)
A remarkable article by Dr David Kelly, published for the first time today, reveals the government scientist's true views ahead of the war on Iraq and his expert assessment of the threat posed by Saddam Hussein. In a development which could have a major influence on the Hutton inquiry, Kelly said that, although the threat was 'modest', he believed military action was the only way to 'conclusively disarm' the country.
He also argued that there was evidence Saddam still had chemical and biological weapons and regime change, the policy of the United States, was the only way to stop the Iraqi dictator.
The article was written for a major report on Iraq being compiled a few weeks before the war. Kelly had agreed to write it anonymously, but the piece was never published.
The BBC is complete scum.
The good folks had better ratchet their satire up a notch, it's too close to reality.
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