Posted on 08/29/2003 7:52:25 AM PDT by Hillary's Lovely Legs
"I can tell you my love for you will still be strong After the boys of summer have gone." -- Don Henley, "The Boys of Summer"
As Labor Day weekend approaches, the 2004 presidential campaign is taking shape. The days are getting shorter and the fortunes of some Democratic candidates who were hot in the spring may be beginning to fade. Some of the so-called top-tier Democratic candidates seeking to challenge Bush have failed to catch fire with voters in the important early primary states. Meanwhile, polls suggest that President Bush is vulnerable. News reports are for the first time portraying him as being on the defensive on foreign policy -- an issue that had been his strength.
Recent polls by Zogby International and Newsweek show that President Bush's job approval rating slipped over the summer, pegging him at just above 50 percent. At the same time, the public's anxiety over the administration's handling of Iraq -- from the number of soldiers being killed to the impact on the federal budget -- continues to rise.
The Zogby poll also points to another troubling sign for the president. Fewer people are saying the president deserves to be re-elected (45 percent) than are saying he does not deserve to be reelected (48 percent). That's a reversal from two and half months ago when the numbers lined up 49 percent to 38 percent in the president's favor. The numbers don't show a slippage among those who support the president as much as they show an increase in the number of people who don't. For those inclined to believe in the vast left-wing conspiracy, even a recent Fox News/Opinion Dynamic poll put the president's "deserves to be reelected" number at 47 percent.
"The president's poll numbers are a reflection of some other numbers: three million jobs lost, a deficit of a half a trillion dollars in one year," said Democratic National Committee spokesman Tony Welch. "And even some Republicans are saying the president has led us into disaster in Iraq. No matter what they say, the polls are an indication and reflection of something real."
Months ago, Bush pollster Matthew Dowd attempted to pre-empt "the sky-is-falling" scenarios. Dowd's analysis included some historical perspective: In 1983, President Reagan trailed possible opponents John Glenn and Walter Mondale in various polls. Reagan went on to beat Mondale in a landslide, winning 49 states. In 1987, President Bush trailed in generic ballot polls, but went on to handily defeat Michael Dukakis the next year. In late 1995 and early 1996, Wall Street Journal and Gallup polls had Bob Dole with a slight lead over Bill Clinton, who went on to defeat Dole in the November election.
It would be ridiculous to predict Bush's demise a year before the votes are cast. But polls do give a reliable snapshot in time of current opinions. That snapshots suggest the president is not as invincible as he once seemed.
The Dem Side
For however much Bush's poll numbers may be lagging, he still compares favorably when stacked up against any of the Democrats, according to recent polls. Some of the so-called top-tier Democrats appear to be fading. Sens. John Edwards (N.C.) and Bob Graham (Fla.) are polling at about 2 percent in New Hampshire -- one point ahead of retired Gen. Wesley Clark, who hasn't announced his intentions, formed an organization, or raised one cent for a campaign. Is it too early to panic? Or should these two big names be thinking about returning their attention to their day jobs in the Senate? Those questions will be asked with ever-greater frequency after Labor Day.
There's no question what the Orlando Sentinel thinks Graham should do. It ran an editorial last week with the headline "Bow Out Bob Graham." Noting that Graham was running neck-and-neck with the Rev. Al Sharpton in Iowa, the paper suggested that "the longer [Graham] continues his long-shot bid for president, the more he risks diminishing his effectiveness as a senator."
The situation in North Carolina is even more interesting, given the competitiveness of the seat even if Edwards decides to stay in the Senate race. Some in the state's Democratic establishment have asked Edwards to declare his intentions by Labor Day. That's not going to happen. George Stephanopoulos reported on Sunday that Edwards aides had predicted in private conversations with him that their candidate would pull out of the Senate race by Sept. 16, the date set for his official presidential announcement. But that may not happen either.
Edwards is cognizant of his problem in the polls, but he and those around him believe it is a problem of name recognition rather than message. They still believe he is the most capable of the Democratic candidates. Campaign aides believe it's going to be between six and eight weeks before they'll see the results of Edwards's campaign ads and "Real Solutions Express" bus tour.
Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) doesn't have to worry about running for reelection because his Senate term doesn't end until 2009. But he does have to worry about slipping poll numbers in New Hampshire. One theory about the reason Kerry plans to make his official entry into the presidential race in front of the USS Yorktown aircraft carrier in Charleston, S.C., is that with former Vermont governor Howard Dean moving ahead in New Hampshire, Kerry is looking to broaden his horizons in the key southern state. Someone from a rival campaign referred to the Kerry announcement as a "gimmickry."
Asked to respond, Kerry spokesman Robert Gibbs quipped: "What criticism? Oh, you mean like going to South Carolina? This just in: there's a primary on Feb. 3! Yes folks, we have adjusted strategy and we will compete in South Carolina." Gibbs also notes that Dean was the only one of the "major" candidates to already be running hundreds of thousands in television ads in New Hampshire and Iowa. (When reminded that Edwards was also running ads, Gibbs chose not to amend his comments.)
The approach of Labor Day also brings nearer the decision by former Gen. Wesley Clark about whether he will run. But as I said in my live discussion last week, Clark's candidacy is looking less and less likely to become a reality. Despite the passion he engenders among some people, he's still largely unknown to the vast majority of the American public. To suggest that a guy who's never run for anything can jump in and build the organization and name recognition, and raise the kind of money he would need to compete and win the nomination this late in the game seems a stretch.
More Gimmicks
Two other candidates are struggling to be competitive in key states by introducing some new "gimmickry" to their serious campaigns. Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt, who is running second to Dean in Iowa polls, has just announced "The Great Gephardt Iowa Pie Challenge," in which he asks voters of the great first caucus state to help him find the tastiest pie in the land.
"Iowa has a long tradition of bringing great pies to our nation," a Gephardt statement reads. "From Stone's 'mile high pie' in Marshalltown to the apple pie at Cronk's Café in Denison, I've only begun to nibble away at the best of what Iowa has to offer - now I need your help in finding all of the great pies in this great state."
I'm not sure this blatant pandering to the sweet-tooth constituency furthers his ambition to be seen as the candidate with the biggest boldest ideas (see Gephardt health care plan), but, hey, it can't hurt.
Lieberman, who is polling in single digits in New Hampshire, announced this week its "See Joe's Car & Go See Nomar!" contest. Voters in New Hampshire who spot one of the campaign's "JoeMobiles" can become eligible for tickets drawing to go see Nomar Garciaparra and the Boston Red Sox by calling or e-mailing the campaign and saying, "I saw the car and love Nomar."
But the bigger question, come the Jan. 27 New Hampshire primary:
Will they love Joe?
This is an interesting little nugget:
Our Friends the SaudisSounds like Arkancide, or maybe Saudicide.In a report on Gerald Posner's new book, "Why America Slept," Time magazine relates this anecdote about Abu Zubaydah, an al Qaeda terrorist who has been in U.S. custody since March 2002:
When questioning stalled, according to Posner, CIA men flew Zubaydah to an Afghan complex fitted out as a fake Saudi jail chamber, where "two Arab-Americans, now with Special Forces," pretending to be Saudi inquisitors, used drugs and threats to scare him into more confessions.
Yet when Zubaydah was confronted by the false Saudis, writes Posner, "his reaction was not fear, but utter relief." Happy to see them, he reeled off telephone numbers for a senior member of the royal family who would, said Zubaydah, "tell you what to do." The man at the other end would be Prince Ahmed bin Salman bin Abdul Aziz, a Westernized nephew of King Fahd's and a publisher better known as a racehorse owner. His horse War Emblem won the Kentucky Derby in 2002. To the amazement of the U.S., the numbers proved valid.
As we noted last year, Aziz died at 43, a few months after Zubaydah's capture, part of a curious string of deaths of youngish Saudi princes.
Teresa's black pantsuit screamed hillary clinton, what was she thinking?
What a horrible speech Kerry gave. All gloom, all doom. I cannot imagine looking at that mug every single day.
After Kerry's speech he worked the crowd and the microphones were running. At one point he told one of his followers, "There's too much conventional wisdomism out there...." LOL!
Those Saudi's are a tricky lot, especially if you're a prince (or whatever) and the powers that be decide you need to go. One died in a plane crash, one died of thirst and Aziz was the heart attack (think I have that right). Too bad they didn't employee this method to bin Laden!
I'm glad we do have some friends in the Saudi Royal family, it'll make tracking those bastards easiser those times they decide to help.
Maybe since soon the oil market will be flooded with more oil from Iraq they'll be even more cooperative.
My ears perked up when I heard Kerry say this on Meet the Press.
T, I also wondered if Kerry had been bleating about the tax cuts only going to the rich. I'll keep a look out for a statement like that from Kerry.
Hmmmmm, the operative word being competitive? Always keeping those options open that hillary.
Part one of an exclusive four-part series of excerpts.
Clinton administration counter-terrorism czar Richard Clarke attended a meeting with Secretary of Defense William Cohen, Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, Attorney General Janet Reno, and others. Several others were in the room, including Leon Fuerth, Gore's national security advisor; Jim Steinberg, the deputy National Security Advisor; and Michael Sheehan, the State Department's coordinator for counterterrorism. An American warship had been attacked without warning in a "friendly" harbor — and, at the time, no one knew if the ship's pumps could keep it afloat for the night. Now they had to decide what to do about it.
Mr. Clarke had no doubts about whom to punish. The Joint Chiefs of Staff had compiled thick binders of bin Laden and Taliban targets in Afghanistan, complete with satellite photographs and GPS bomb coordinates — the Pentagon's "target decks." The detailed plan was "to level" every bin Laden training camp and compound in Afghanistan as well as key Taliban buildings in Kabul and Kandahar. "Let's blow them up," Clarke said. . . . Around the table, Clarke heard only objections — not a mandate for action. More
Just listened to a clip of JFK saying:
I am honored to join you in this endeavor as a candidate for President of the United States.
However, it sounded like this:
I am honored to join you in this endeavor as a candidate for Precedent of the United States.
Ick, just guess what Kerry has named his tour of annoyance of the American people?
American Courage Tour (hurl!)
Now back to your regularly scheduled program......
That has produced a longing for Clark among some Democrats and a significant outpouring of support in chat rooms and on Internet sites set up to encourage him to run. This is another parallel to the Dean campaign, which has used the Web cleverly and aggressively. If Clark does get into the race later this month, this Internet infrastructure could be key to his chances of raising enough money to be competitive.
Listen to the Clark Web-heads and you hear the longing for a winner.
"Whoever wins the Democratic primary had better be able to neutralize the defense argument quickly, or they're toast," wrote one correspondent. "This is why, before Clark, I felt that there was no way in hell that anyone could possibly beat Bush. . . . Only Clark can change the dynamic. Only Clark can change the conversation. Only Clark can change the direction."
"He is the man that can beat Bush," wrote another. "He can repeal Bush policies, help get the economy back on track, restore our political prestige and help make our country far safer." Link
Iraq, like Gaul, is divided into three parts — and the U.S. has more serious pacification problems, and a less vivid set of pacification options, than Caesar did. The Bush Administration says the country is largely quiet — but a successful guerrilla war doesn't require much more than a fervent handful of fighters. In Iraq there are on average a dozen attacks against American soldiers each day. There are countless acts of sabotage. There is massive theft of oil, copper (from power lines) and electrical equipment. And there are the now weekly high-profile terrorist acts, like the bombing of the U.N. headquarters two weeks ago and of a shrine in Najaf last week.
Indeed, a depressing array of defense and foreign policy experts, including members of the uniformed military, have quietly concluded that postwar Iraq is the most vexing theater of operations the American military has faced since Vietnam. Even if Saddam Hussein is captured or killed, most experts (outside the Pentagon) believe that the restoration of order will be extremely difficult. Jihadist terror, organized criminality and internecine religious violence are likely to continue. For the immediate future, this is where George Bush's war on terrorism is being fought — and this is where his political future may be decided. Link
I swear if I hear one more dim jerk tell me that GWB lied to get into a war with Iraq I'll scream. I have to keep repeating to myself that this will tick off voters, continually telling them they were duped by the POTUS. Why don't they come right out and say, you Americans are dumb as dirt!
The other lie that makes me batty is the one about "the president told us the war was over".
Just what part of going to an aircraft carrier to tell the people who were doing the bombing in Iraq, that "major combat operations are over" don't they understand?!
Hopefully the majority of American people will see this as the lie it is.
If he did order the grits I'm sure he asked the infamous question, "What's a grit?"
Robert Novak's got the scoop:
Recipients of recent money appeals by the Democratic National Committee have been puzzled by the absence of the customary signature of the party chairman, Terry McAuliffe.(Credit to Rush)
Earlier DNC fund-raising letters this year were signed by former President Bill Clinton and Sen. Edward M. Kennedy. The latest appeal, which arrived in the mail last week, was signed by somebody whose name was new to many recipients: Josh Wachs, the DNC's 31-year-old chief operating officer.
McAuliffe is so controversial with the Democratic rank-and-file, according to party sources, that his name may inhibit contributions. A Washington-based business speculator, McAuliffe was handpicked for chairman by Bill and Hillary Clinton after the 2000 election, against the wishes of many DNC members.
IG, I had to put the rug rat on computer restriction so I'm getting more time in the evening. Plus this week and last I'm a tennis widow, the US Open on allllllllll week.
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