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The Guild 8-29-2003 Say Goodbye to Summer

Posted on 08/29/2003 7:52:25 AM PDT by Hillary's Lovely Legs

"I can tell you my love for you will still be strong After the boys of summer have gone." -- Don Henley, "The Boys of Summer"

As Labor Day weekend approaches, the 2004 presidential campaign is taking shape. The days are getting shorter and the fortunes of some Democratic candidates who were hot in the spring may be beginning to fade. Some of the so-called top-tier Democratic candidates seeking to challenge Bush have failed to catch fire with voters in the important early primary states. Meanwhile, polls suggest that President Bush is vulnerable. News reports are for the first time portraying him as being on the defensive on foreign policy -- an issue that had been his strength.

Recent polls by Zogby International and Newsweek show that President Bush's job approval rating slipped over the summer, pegging him at just above 50 percent. At the same time, the public's anxiety over the administration's handling of Iraq -- from the number of soldiers being killed to the impact on the federal budget -- continues to rise.

The Zogby poll also points to another troubling sign for the president. Fewer people are saying the president deserves to be re-elected (45 percent) than are saying he does not deserve to be reelected (48 percent). That's a reversal from two and half months ago when the numbers lined up 49 percent to 38 percent in the president's favor. The numbers don't show a slippage among those who support the president as much as they show an increase in the number of people who don't. For those inclined to believe in the vast left-wing conspiracy, even a recent Fox News/Opinion Dynamic poll put the president's "deserves to be reelected" number at 47 percent.

"The president's poll numbers are a reflection of some other numbers: three million jobs lost, a deficit of a half a trillion dollars in one year," said Democratic National Committee spokesman Tony Welch. "And even some Republicans are saying the president has led us into disaster in Iraq. No matter what they say, the polls are an indication and reflection of something real."

Months ago, Bush pollster Matthew Dowd attempted to pre-empt "the sky-is-falling" scenarios. Dowd's analysis included some historical perspective: In 1983, President Reagan trailed possible opponents John Glenn and Walter Mondale in various polls. Reagan went on to beat Mondale in a landslide, winning 49 states. In 1987, President Bush trailed in generic ballot polls, but went on to handily defeat Michael Dukakis the next year. In late 1995 and early 1996, Wall Street Journal and Gallup polls had Bob Dole with a slight lead over Bill Clinton, who went on to defeat Dole in the November election.

It would be ridiculous to predict Bush's demise a year before the votes are cast. But polls do give a reliable snapshot in time of current opinions. That snapshots suggest the president is not as invincible as he once seemed.

The Dem Side

For however much Bush's poll numbers may be lagging, he still compares favorably when stacked up against any of the Democrats, according to recent polls. Some of the so-called top-tier Democrats appear to be fading. Sens. John Edwards (N.C.) and Bob Graham (Fla.) are polling at about 2 percent in New Hampshire -- one point ahead of retired Gen. Wesley Clark, who hasn't announced his intentions, formed an organization, or raised one cent for a campaign. Is it too early to panic? Or should these two big names be thinking about returning their attention to their day jobs in the Senate? Those questions will be asked with ever-greater frequency after Labor Day.

There's no question what the Orlando Sentinel thinks Graham should do. It ran an editorial last week with the headline "Bow Out Bob Graham." Noting that Graham was running neck-and-neck with the Rev. Al Sharpton in Iowa, the paper suggested that "the longer [Graham] continues his long-shot bid for president, the more he risks diminishing his effectiveness as a senator."

The situation in North Carolina is even more interesting, given the competitiveness of the seat even if Edwards decides to stay in the Senate race. Some in the state's Democratic establishment have asked Edwards to declare his intentions by Labor Day. That's not going to happen. George Stephanopoulos reported on Sunday that Edwards aides had predicted in private conversations with him that their candidate would pull out of the Senate race by Sept. 16, the date set for his official presidential announcement. But that may not happen either.

Edwards is cognizant of his problem in the polls, but he and those around him believe it is a problem of name recognition rather than message. They still believe he is the most capable of the Democratic candidates. Campaign aides believe it's going to be between six and eight weeks before they'll see the results of Edwards's campaign ads and "Real Solutions Express" bus tour.

Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) doesn't have to worry about running for reelection because his Senate term doesn't end until 2009. But he does have to worry about slipping poll numbers in New Hampshire. One theory about the reason Kerry plans to make his official entry into the presidential race in front of the USS Yorktown aircraft carrier in Charleston, S.C., is that with former Vermont governor Howard Dean moving ahead in New Hampshire, Kerry is looking to broaden his horizons in the key southern state. Someone from a rival campaign referred to the Kerry announcement as a "gimmickry."

Asked to respond, Kerry spokesman Robert Gibbs quipped: "What criticism? Oh, you mean like going to South Carolina? This just in: there's a primary on Feb. 3! Yes folks, we have adjusted strategy and we will compete in South Carolina." Gibbs also notes that Dean was the only one of the "major" candidates to already be running hundreds of thousands in television ads in New Hampshire and Iowa. (When reminded that Edwards was also running ads, Gibbs chose not to amend his comments.)

The approach of Labor Day also brings nearer the decision by former Gen. Wesley Clark about whether he will run. But as I said in my live discussion last week, Clark's candidacy is looking less and less likely to become a reality. Despite the passion he engenders among some people, he's still largely unknown to the vast majority of the American public. To suggest that a guy who's never run for anything can jump in and build the organization and name recognition, and raise the kind of money he would need to compete and win the nomination this late in the game seems a stretch.

More Gimmicks

Two other candidates are struggling to be competitive in key states by introducing some new "gimmickry" to their serious campaigns. Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt, who is running second to Dean in Iowa polls, has just announced "The Great Gephardt Iowa Pie Challenge," in which he asks voters of the great first caucus state to help him find the tastiest pie in the land.

"Iowa has a long tradition of bringing great pies to our nation," a Gephardt statement reads. "From Stone's 'mile high pie' in Marshalltown to the apple pie at Cronk's Café in Denison, I've only begun to nibble away at the best of what Iowa has to offer - now I need your help in finding all of the great pies in this great state."

I'm not sure this blatant pandering to the sweet-tooth constituency furthers his ambition to be seen as the candidate with the biggest boldest ideas (see Gephardt health care plan), but, hey, it can't hurt.

Lieberman, who is polling in single digits in New Hampshire, announced this week its "See Joe's Car & Go See Nomar!" contest. Voters in New Hampshire who spot one of the campaign's "JoeMobiles" can become eligible for tickets drawing to go see Nomar Garciaparra and the Boston Red Sox by calling or e-mailing the campaign and saying, "I saw the car and love Nomar."

But the bigger question, come the Jan. 27 New Hampshire primary:

Will they love Joe?


TOPICS: The Guild
KEYWORDS: theguild
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To: BigWaveBetty
My kinda guy - If a little's good, then a LOT'S better...boom!

Quotes & Toasts of the Day -

When I read about the evils of drinking, I gave up reading. -- Henny Youngman

Life is a waste of time, time is a waste of life, so get wasted all of the time and have the time of your life. -- Michelle Mastrolacasa

I'd rather have a bottle in front of me, than a frontal lobotomy. -- Tom Waits

101 posted on 09/01/2003 9:54:52 AM PDT by lodwick
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102 posted on 09/01/2003 10:15:48 AM PDT by lodwick
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To: Iowa Granny
Howard Finneman writes about Clark and doesn't see fit to include Clark's whoopers.

Clark would get attention, and perhaps more. “There’s an opening,” says Jennifer Donahue of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics. “People here are still looking for a knight in shining armor.” In fact, what many Democrats are looking for is a credible alternative to Dr. Howard Dean, whose nomination they think would lead to a disaster akin to George McGovern’s humiliation at the hands of Richard Nixon in 1972. “The campaign is turning into Dean versus a player to be named later,” Complete story

Ouch, that The campaign is turning into Dean versus a player to be named later,” comment is going to leave a nasty mark on Kerry!

Watch Kerry the next time he speaks, he has a nasty habit of sticking his tongue out while speaking. He is Lurch the Lizard Man.

103 posted on 09/01/2003 10:20:43 AM PDT by BigWaveBetty (Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us all to be happy ~~ Ben Franklin)
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To: lodwick
LOL!!! That is so cute!!!
104 posted on 09/01/2003 10:21:23 AM PDT by BigWaveBetty (Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us all to be happy ~~ Ben Franklin)
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To: BigWaveBetty
Clark may not need his shining armor to defeat Dean. The newly-dubbed "Mrs. Dean" (see post 67, above) may accomplish that, all by her lovely self.
105 posted on 09/01/2003 10:47:08 AM PDT by mountaineer
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To: lodwick
A scientific study involving healthy, young adults, sage oil capsules and a word recall test has backed up centuries-old theories about sage's ability to improve memory.

I just knew there was valid reason to consume copious quantities of sage rich turkey dressing. Thanks for the link.

106 posted on 09/01/2003 12:09:39 PM PDT by MaeWest
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To: mountaineer
Mrs. Dean,,,,,, Bless Her Heart.
107 posted on 09/01/2003 12:10:18 PM PDT by Iowa Granny
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To: habs4ever; Iowa Granny
I think you can truly say that Iowans(sic) are real swines ;-)

Those of us who pine to be honorary Iowans and who can think of few things as gratifying as a goblet of crisp white wine served with a perfectly grilled pork chop prefer to be referred to as "swinos" : )

108 posted on 09/01/2003 12:31:12 PM PDT by MaeWest
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To: MaeWest
I finally located a vendor in the UK and ordered some sage caps...we'll see how it goes.

Cheers.
109 posted on 09/01/2003 12:40:47 PM PDT by lodwick
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To: mountaineer
I'm curious to see if "Mrs. Dean" will have a make-over soon.

I just watched a Dean interview. Get this, Judy Woodruff asks him (paraphrasing), "You say you're glad Saddam is gone but disagree with how President Bush did it, how would you have removed Saddam?"

Dean: "With UN troops...."

Bwahahahaha! I didn't know the UN had an amry!

110 posted on 09/01/2003 1:41:21 PM PDT by BigWaveBetty (Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us all to be happy ~~ Ben Franklin)
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To: mountaineer; Iowa Granny
Mrs. Dean reminds me of Andrea Yates....(I think that's her name-the mama from Texas who did her kids in)...
111 posted on 09/01/2003 1:43:53 PM PDT by daisyscarlett (A clean house is a sign of a broken computer...)
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To: BigWaveBetty
I can't find any photos of the Stella McCartney wedding. Guess they sold the rights to a tab....

I did find some disgusting photos of Michael Jackson who celebrated his 45th birthday last week with a big party in L.A.

Pop entertainer Michael Jackson (news) points to fellow entertainers performing during a celebration of his 45th birthday at the Orpheum Theater in Los Angeles August 30, 2003. REUTERS/Robert Galbraith


112 posted on 09/01/2003 1:51:18 PM PDT by daisyscarlett (A clean house is a sign of a broken computer...)
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To: BigWaveBetty
Laura Bush will be a tough act for any of the candidates wives to emulate...Here from TIME:

The first lady hits the campaign trail with a string of media interviews to burnish her husband's reelection effort

Hillary Clinton may have hogged the spotlight this summer with her hot-selling memoir, but this fall her low-key successor, Laura Bush, will be taking her own modest turn in the public eye.

Normally publicity shy, the First Lady is raising her profile over the coming weeks, appearing in Ladies' Home Journal, Glamour, Harper's Bazaar and on the Lifetime channel.

The former librarian will emphasize her signature issues — reading and teaching — and spend some time raising awareness about a topic that's new to her agenda: heart disease.

Why the burst of activity? "She is one of the President's best political assets," says a top Bush campaign adviser. Republican voters admire her traditional approach to a position they believe that Hillary Clinton ransacked during her tenure, and they delight in soft-focus stories on the Bushes' home life.

In Ladies' Home Journal, Laura Bush chats about the President's penchant for leaving his towels lying around. "Things that might have irritated me — like not hanging up his towels," she says, "I don't have to worry about anymore. Someone in the White House hangs up the towels."

The First Lady will maintain a regular campaign fund-raising schedule this fall, crossing the country for her husband's re-election. At the end of the month, she will travel overseas alone for only the second time.

After a stop in Paris marking the U.S.'s re-entry into UNESCO, she will head to Moscow for a book festival that Russian First Lady Lyudmila Putin is host to — a celebration modeled on the one Laura Bush started in America.

113 posted on 09/01/2003 2:01:16 PM PDT by daisyscarlett (A clean house is a sign of a broken computer...)
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To: daisyscarlett
I CANNOT believe that we've rejoined that ungodly unesco outfit - but, then again, maybe I can...

Just dammit.
114 posted on 09/01/2003 2:13:43 PM PDT by lodwick
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To: daisyscarlett
Too bad about the Stella wedding pics, they'll prolly show up sooner or later on the internet.

The two front runners, John Kerry and Dean will have a hard sell as far as their other half is concerned.

Mrs. Dean's looks as though she has the personality of a rock. Mrs. Heinz Kerry is extremely smug.

115 posted on 09/01/2003 2:52:39 PM PDT by BigWaveBetty (Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us all to be happy ~~ Ben Franklin)
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To: BigWaveBetty
On the Fox News Hour they just showed Kerry talking to two little African-American girls, small enough to still be in pigtails.

He enthused: "I want you to stay involved in politics, now. Because we've got to change our culture. Change it for the better!".

They looked at him like he'd just said something stupid....wonder why?!

116 posted on 09/01/2003 3:14:58 PM PDT by Timeout
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To: daisyscarlett; lodwick
Good heavens, what has happened to Michael Jackson's hand? It's all purple! Yikes.

lod, if you need sage, just stop by. I'm constantly cutting back my plants (there's just not enough turkey in the world to accommodate them).

117 posted on 09/01/2003 3:16:39 PM PDT by mountaineer
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To: mountaineer
lod, if you need sage, just stop by.

I, too, was thinking "Grow Your Own".

118 posted on 09/01/2003 3:41:12 PM PDT by Iowa Granny
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To: mountaineer; lodwick; BigWaveBetty; Hillary's Lovely Legs; All
How did I miss this???

While passing thru the check out at Wally World this afternoon I noticed the front cover of one of the popular ladies mags,, can't remember which. Photo of Joan Lunden with twin babies, one dressed in pink the other dressed in blue.

The story line flagged on the cover was something along the lines of "Lunden at 52, younger man & twins". (This isn't exactly what it said, but somewhere in the script each of these three things were noted: Her age, younger man & twins.

Has Joan Lunden given birth to twins sired by a younger man and we failed to discuss it? Was the discussion held while I was off on a trip. Tell me we are not slipping so much that we have somehow overlooked this lucious tidbit.
119 posted on 09/01/2003 3:46:32 PM PDT by Iowa Granny
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To: Iowa Granny
I just have to add: Giving birth to anything, but good retirement ideas, at the age of 52 would have qualified me for extended care at the insane assylum.
120 posted on 09/01/2003 3:49:10 PM PDT by Iowa Granny
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