While difficult to see, there is evidence of a LP center forming in NC, near C. Lookout.
Posted on 12/24/2002 4:37:41 AM PST by Chairman_December_19th_Society
We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail!
Good morning!! Do not let the victims of the attacks on New York and Washington, nor the brave members of our Nation's military who have given their lives to protect our freedom, die in vain!!
WINTER STORM #4 - UPDATE
Discussion--
Low pressure center is currently centered over extreme NE MS, near AL border, about 50 miles south of common border with TN. Movement is toward the NE.
Second LP center will develop off C. Lookout, NC, this afternoon, and strengthen rapidly. Conditions are favorable for this system to bomb out as there is a confluence of the southern and polar jets about 200 miles off Sandy Hook; however, warm air parked over too much of the eastern seaboard may mitigate this effect.
Nevertheless, much moisture is available to the system. QPF figures of 1.5 inches are showing up in extreme SW ME, extreme SE NH, the eastern half of MA, all of RI, and all but the NW corner of CT. In addition, a 1.5" QPF figure is also forecast for the southern Catskills of NY. Assuming melt ratio of 10:1 to 15:1 for this system. This means there are locations in the storm track that may see in excess of 20" of snow. Prepare accordingly.
Areas that have QPF figures of 1.0 inches that are north of the 850mb 0C line include NE PA, NY east of the Finger Lakes and south of the Adirondack shield, the southern halves of VT and NH, and SW ME (excepting those areas previously mentioned as bounded by a QPF isohyet of 1.5"). These areas may expect, on average, between 10 and 15" of snow.
The 850mb 0C line (the "rain/snow line") has been repositioned a little further to the north - Rockland and Westchester counties in NY will not see much snow.
Winter storm watches are in effect for virtually all of PA, NY, and New England, except the extreme north of ME. Winter storm watches are also in effect in NW NJ and eastern OH.
This system has the potential of becoming a dangerous winter storm, appropriation preparations should be made.
Forecast-December 24--
Rain moving into the Carolinas and Virginia (later). In Virginia, this precipitation may also be snow or sleet in higher elevations.
Forecast-December 25--
Rain changing to snow in northern Virginia as the system pulls out by early afternoon. Rain likely coastal areas DE/NJ, snow elsewhere in NJ as day moves on. Coastal areas of NY likely to see sleet or rain/snow mix. Interior areas of PA/NY and all of NE likely to see heavy snow Wednesday, tapering off in the small hours of Thursday. Accumulations well beyond 12" are possible - 20" are not out of the picture. Southern Catskills, and large portions of New England should prepare for the possibility of total storm drops exceeding two feet.
Advise monitoring local news and NOAA Weather Radio for updates in this serious weather event.
*************************************
In the news:
Secretary Rumsfeld warned North Korea yesterday that America has the forces to fight and win wars in two theaters at once.
United States experts still fear "catostrophic" attacks by Al Qa'eda, saying the groups ingenuity level is as high as ever.
For AMERICA - The Right Way, I remain yours in the Cause, the Chairman.
z--Philadelphia 12 3 0 5-0 11-0
z--Green Bay 12 3 0 5-1 9-3
Bold denotes each teams record in the NFC.....last time I checked...an 11-0 record....or an 11-1 record is better than a 9-3 or 10-3 record..
/john
Rub it in...
But remember those losses happened before our 5-0 run began..
This Giants game will be the test.....they always play us tough.
Those idiot fans even booed when McNabb was selected in the first round!
OUCH!
While difficult to see, there is evidence of a LP center forming in NC, near C. Lookout.
Well...
I've got news for them - there's a film of white beginning to build on my driveway.
Chair this is starting to worry me....I have a sneaky feeling this one will get far enough off the coast to give us a wallop!
You might want to revisit that issue..
Daughter-child called a little while ago and asked me what's going on with the weather where she is ....... she said it's supposed to be raining in that area, not snowing. I suggested she turn on tv ..... LOL!
The Jerk has the kids until tomorrow afternoon .... she is beginning to panic at the thought that she might not see them on Christmas ..... :-(
I don't know what time line that guy is working on. The area of concern is that big red area just off the east coast CONUS. That is big time activity going on and is the bomb that will fuel the system. As that begins to get organized around the LP, a very large amount of latent energy is going to get released causing a large pressure drop. This will suck in air both from the south on the ocean side of the system (which will supply the moisture to wrap around the low), and from the north, which provides the chill.
It is at the "intersection" (it's not really, but it doesn't detract from things to think of it that way) of these two airflows that we have a real problem. This is where the heavy snow will occur, and that still looks like a band from around Wilkes-Barre to Boston, and up to 40 miles either side of that line.
It will take time to set up this "conveyer belt," probably another ten to twelve hours (all that southern air has to wrap all the way up into the northern US and be swept back down on the return flow), but it looks well on its way.
There is nothing to change my opinion about conditions en route. The last 50 miles will be bad, the 100 miles before that annoying, the rest will just be a bad rainy day.
[Now if the snow here doesn't change to rain by this evening, I may have to rethink.]
Nope. It's in NY and the Giants have much more to play for than the Eagles do, homefield advantage thru the playoffs or not. The Eagles are in, the Giants are on the out looking in, and there's the catalyst to play like there's no tomorrow.
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