Is that Cong. seat changing hands, then? That's the bottom line, IMO.
The incumbent, Van Hilleary, is running for governor so it's an open seat. Janice Bowling, the Republican candidate, is a great choice, but Lincoln Davis (isn't that a wonderful Civil War name?) is a conservative Democrat who is endorsed by the NRA and is pro-life so he's going to be hard to beat.
Incidentally, I think this 4th district is Al Gore's old district. You wouldn't know that from the campaign. His name just never comes up at all.