The Guild 10-21-2002 Current Political Environment/Strategy Recommendation

TO: Marc Racicot, Chairman, RNC Jack Oliver, Deputy Chairman, RNC FR: Matthew Dowd, Senior Adviser RE: Current Political Environment/Strategy Recommendation

With a little over three weeks till Election Day the analysis below illustrates Republican opportunity in the current political landscape. This memorandum reflects internal RNC polling conducted as recently as Thursday night (10/10/02).

As we approach the November mid-term election, the President and the Republican Party are in a historic and positive position. Since 1934, the incumbent party of the President has lost an average of 27 congressional seats in the first mid-term election. It now appears this mid-term will not follow the trend of history. A few key factors have contributed to this dynamic in the past.

Two primary factors are the approval rating of the President and the public's support of the pposition party and its leaders. Historically, a President's approval rating is dismal during the first mid-term election. The exception to that trend would be John F. Kennedy in 1962, who had a 60% approval rating going into his first mid-term election.

Also historically, the opposing party has a major advantage over the President's party on favorability and key issues.

There is significant evidence that this election is breaking from historical trends:

1) Historically, Republicans have success at the polls even when Democrats have a three to five point generic ballot advantage. Now on the generic ballot, Republican and Democratic candidates are tied and it has basically been this way for 7 months. So despite Democrat hopes that a variety of issues might work to their advantage, the generic ballot has not moved.

2) In past elections, Democrats have had a seven-point party favorability advantage. But, during the last seven months, Republicans have maintained a 2 to 6 point net favorability advantage and this week's polling is no different.

3) President Bush's approval rating in all public and private polls continues to be above 60% as we predicted months ago. In fact, in our most recent poll, the President's approval rating is near 70%.

4) There is no national Democratic leader with overwhelmingly positive ratings. Most of the Democrat Party leaders have significant unfavorable ratings or weak or anemic favorable ratings. The last Democratic nominee for President, Al Gore, has high negatives and net unfavorables. This is a unique and dangerous position for the opposition party.

The following facts about the current issue landscape illustrate several Republican advantages:

a) Economy, b) Terrorism/Security/Iraq, and c) Education. This has been the case for 3 - 4 months now.

2) The public continues to be very concerned about the economy and is somewhat less optimistic than they were a few months ago. Further, a majority of the public thinks the economy is going in the wrong direction, not the right direction. Pundits and political strategists of both parties have mistakenly assumed Democrats would benefit because of this.

3) The public trusts the President over Democrats in Congress on each of the above issues, despite media coverage over the last few weeks concerning the President and Iraq and Homeland Security, and Democrat efforts to be perceived as dominant on domestic issues. Ironically this includes the issues the Democrats often refer to as "kitchen table" issues. In a broader comparison the public trusts the Republican Party over the Democratic Party overwhelmingly on terrorism/security, and the Republican Party is tied with the Democrat Party on the issues of the Economy and Education.

4) The public's desire, in spite of the Democrats best efforts to the contrary, is to not fix political blame for the economy. They continue to look for positive solutions for job creation and economic growth. Thus far, the public hasn't heard a single positive message from Democrats on this issue. This provides a great opportunity for Republicans to debate and engage voters and Democrats directly. Since Democrats do not have the voters' overwhelming trust on the economy and have no real solutions from their leaders, the Republicans are in a great position to win the debate on the economy in this election.

5) Corporate accountability/responsibility has fallen to some degree as an issue of concern. The public still trusts the President and Republicans in Congress more on this issue. Pundits initially speculated this issue would be a boon for Democrats, but based on the generic ballot stability, the President's continued high approval ratings, and the Republican Party's favorability advantage, voters clearly understand the source of this problem.

This election will be fought at the local and state level in a few contested races around the country. Though Democrats have tried to nationalize this election with coordinated attacks over last few months the facts above show the public has not responded. It is amazing that with an economy growing less than we would like, the Democrats have no inherent advantage on this issue or on any of voters' top concerns. It points to an opportunity for Republican candidates to discuss the President's positive economic agenda in a major and profound way. Voters are looking for positive solutions, not fixing blame. And Democrat's lack of both leadership and a positive agenda for the economy has left them unable to connect with voters.

Help President Bush by spreading the Republican message! Change your answering machine at home or voice mail at work to promote our Republican candidates on the ballot this November.

Voice Mail Script: "Hi you've reached , another supporter of 's Republican Team.

As my friends and family --- please do me a personal favor -- vote Republican on Election Day.

And of course, leave me a message and I'll get back to you as soon as possible."

Not sure who's running? Learn about every race in your district by visiting the Team Leader campaign section, more...

"The resolution I'm about to sign symbolizes the united purpose of our nation, expresses the considered judgment of the Congress, and marks an important event in the life of America. The 107th Congress is one of the few called by history to authorize military action to defend our country and the cause of peace..."

We only have 19 days left until Election Day. Remember to vote for all your Republican candidates. With a majority in Senate, we'll be able to pass a budget, create a Department of Homeland Security, pass Terrorism Insurance and confirm well-qualified judicial nominees. Together we can keep the House and take back the Senate.

Not sure who's running? Learn about every race in your district by visiting the Team Leader campaign section, more...

State By State Ballot Request Information "Time's running out...don't forget to request your absentee ballot!" Read more.

Democrat Publicity Summit Fails To Address Stalled Economic Legislation "Democrat inaction in Washington means no relief for hard-working Americans and their families. From the Democrat Senate's failure to pass a budget or a prescription drug plan, to their failure to make the tax cuts permanent, Democrat inaction negatively impacts the lives of everyday Americans!" Read more.

Gephardt Talks A Lot About The Economy, But When It Was Time To Act...He Didn't! "Gephardt says he wants to focus on the economy, but how credible is he? Where was he when his vote counted? Time after time, vote after vote, he voted against legislation critical to strengthening the economy and creating jobs." Read more.

President Highlights Humanitarian Efforts in Afghanistan "Afghanistan has entered a new era of hope. And we want to be a continued part of the new era of hope in Afghanistan." Read more.

Secretary Paige Announces $35 Million in Grants to Recruit and Train New Teachers "'America's future depends on ensuring that our classrooms are filled with many more bright and dedicated teachers,' said First Lady Laura Bush. 'I hope that school districts will use this new resource to encourage more men and women to enter the teaching profession.'" Read more.

"I'm the No. 1 target of the White House. They can't get Osama bin Laden, so they're going to get me."

This site is great to check out candidates from every state. Once you've found the candidate you're interested in (look on the left hand side of the page and enter candidates or elected offical's last name, then click OKAY) look in the right hand corner for:

For instance the Issue Positions gives you easy access to information on how a candidate stands on all issues. That is if they filled out the questionaire they were sent.

For instance Gov. Jeb Bush filled out his from last election. Enter Jeb's last name to check out what a good candidate looks like.

For contrast, Bill McBride the challenger for the Florida's Governor's race hasn't bothered to fill his out so all you get is this:

The 2002 National Political Awareness Test will be sent to those candidates who file with their State Board of Elections to run in the General Election.

I checked four of the republicans running in my state, all had filled out this important information.

The four opposing democrats all have not filled out their issues forms. Hmmmmmmmmmm!

About last night's debate from the Miami Herald, McBride lost the chance to make case

This is a much better analysis of the debate than we got in the Orlando Slantinel.

Republican Gov. Jeb Bush and Democrat Bill McBride tangled over taxes, education and the loose rhetoric of Florida's governor's race as they met Tuesday for their final television debate.

The two contenders struck hard at each other's style and substance during the face-off in Orlando, hoping to deliver a knockout punch as the close race entered its final two weeks. [snip]

It's a long piece... here's an example of how the Slantinel glossed over McUgly's bad performance.

Taking on Bush's criticism of the class-size measure, McBride downplayed the estimate by state economists that it would cost the state $27 billion to implement over its first eight years.

McBride said he thought those numbers were inflated, and that the real cost would fall somewhere between $11 billion and $15 billion. But in saying he would shift state budget priorities to find such funding, McBride also conceded that wholesale budget cuts were possible.

When Russert asked how much McUgly said, "Somewhere between 8 billion and 27 billion." Russert then had to wrestle an actual answer out of him.

Link to Slantinel story.

Link to transcript.

Poll from Slantinel:

Who won Tuesday night's Gubernatorial Debate?

78.2%
Jeb Bush (13904 responses)

21.8%
Bill McBride (3884 responses)

Much better than the poll from our local NBC affiliate which has McUgly at 52% and Jeb at 48%.

Did you see this one? Oy vey!

RACE FOR GOVERNOR: Gender gap a chasm among state voters
Granholm benefits wildly, Posthumus slightly

October 21, 2002
BY KATHLEEN GRAY
FREE PRESS STAFF WRITER

Michigan women may be poised to put Jennifer Granholm over the top Nov. 5.

Unless men get in their way.

Polls show Democrat Granholm with a big lead among female voters, more than 20 percentage points in one poll released last week. Meanwhile, men give Republican Dick Posthumus a slight advantage.

At first blush, it's not surprising that women would feel a kinship with Granholm, who told a group of Democratic women in August, "I love the feel of estrogen in the morning."

But is it Granholm's campaign as the working mom and tough female executive that's pulling women into her circle of voters?

Yes and no.

Granholm benefits from women who like her, identify with her and see the opportunity to make history by electing her as Michigan's first female governor.

But she's got something else that appeals to women just as reliably.

She's a Democrat, the party that wants government to be a little more nurturing and in touch with its feminine side, experts say.

In Michigan's 2000 elections, that worked for presidential candidate Al Gore and U.S. Rep. Debbie Stabenow, who knocked off incumbent U.S. Sen. Spencer Abraham, both with big support from female voters.

"The core distinction for women comes down to the role of government. Women feel it can help your family and that government should do more," said Celinda Lake, a Washington, D.C., pollster. "We asked middle-class male and female voters if they ever thought that they might need a safety net program, and two-thirds of the men said no and two-thirds of the women said yes."

Since a dominant Republican theme is less government, women have been shifting to the Democratic Party during the last decade.

In presidential polling done by American Viewpoint, a Virginia political polling firm, the percentage of women voting for the Democratic presidential candidate rose by 7 percentage points between 1992 and 2000. By contrast, the number of men voting for the Republican presidential candidate rose by 13 percentage points in that time. The female candidate's appeal isn't about gender, said Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women in Politics at Rutgers University in New Jersey. It's about issues.

"The gender gap is driven not by the gender of the candidate, but by the fact that she supports a whole set of issues," Walsh said. "Women tend to see themselves as more economically vulnerable than men and may need the support of government at some point in their lives. Women think about those issues, and it shapes their voting and their attitude toward government."

Women running for executive positions have a tougher time wooing male voters, even those who may be kindred spirits on the issues, Lake said.

Polls show Posthumus' support creeping up among men. He had a 4 percentage point advantage over Granholm in a poll released last week by EPIC/MRA of Lansing.

"Men tend to have more reservations about whether a woman could be a governor," Lake said. "And older women voters may fall off from the woman candidate."

That split will benefit Posthumus, said Dan Pero, a top adviser to the Posthumus campaign and manager of Gov. John Engler's successful 1990 and '94 campaigns.

"For the media, every year is the year of the woman. It's like we're always living under the same moon. It gets pretty old," Pero said. "Sure, she may win with women. We may win with men. Big deal. We're going to win the election."

In Free Press voter focus groups earlier this month, men said they had no problem with a woman becoming governor, but felt that she may encounter problems negotiating the good old boys' system, to implement her agenda.

Women in the focus group said they felt it would be a beneficial to have someone in the governor's office who wasn't entrenched in that system.

The gender gap, for the most part, doesn't help female Republican candidates.

Terri Lynn Land, the Republican candidate for secretary of state in Michigan, held a 7 percentage point lead over Democrat Melvin (Butch) Hollowell in the recent EPIC/MRA poll. But the two are dead even -- at 33 percent -- among female voters.

GOP leaders acknowledgethey have to work harder to attract female voters, but they're hoping President George W. Bush's high favorability ratings are a step in the right direction.

"He has the same high approval rating among both men and women," said Ann Wagner, co-chairwoman of the Republican National Committee. "We believe we're taking baby steps, and it's going to be a long-term project for us."

Sandra Boulton, 40, of Dearborn said she turned from a Republican-leaning independent to a Granholm supporter after watching the first debate between the two candidates.

"I was totally taken aback," by what she considered to be a condescending tone Posthumus used toward Granholm, she said. "It was an indication to me that he didn't respect her as a peer, and I take offense to that."

Other women say they will remain true to the Republican party.

Diane Kurtz, 41, of Sterling Heights said she's "hugely pro-life" on abortion and can't vote for Granholm because she supports abortion rights.

Cristina Pappageorge, president of the Oakland County Council of Republican Women's clubs, said she is frustrated by the gender gap in the governor's race.

"I know a lot of women enjoy voting for another woman, but I wish they weren't so easily coerced," she said. Posthumus "has to let women know that this truly isn't about men against women. It's about experience, and Dick has the experience."

Although the effects of Michigan's gender gap among voters won't be known until Election Day, there seems no question that the gap exists.

Kim Brennen Root is a Democrat and veteran of lots of political campaigns. In 1994, she served as the spokeswoman for gubernatorial candidate Howard Wolpe. But she said this year has special meaning.

"Knowing that she is a mother, a wife and has had to balance that with a professional life is important to me," Root said. "Because I've had to do it, too."

Contact KATHLEEN GRAY at 248-586-2603 or
gray@freepress.com.

Wishing I had the stamina of a teenager.

Don't we all! :-)

Good article from James Baker on N. Korea.

No More Caving On North Korea

The leaders of North Korea starve their people to maintain the world's fifth-largest military force and with it personal power over a bankrupt country. They earn hard currency by selling advanced missile technology in violation of the international missile technology control regime. Potentially just over the horizon is the ultimate proliferation nightmare -- ballistic missiles fitted with nuclear warheads.

This is exceedingly dangerous and enormously troubling. What it is not, however, is surprising. Rather, it is the natural and foreseeable result of the 1994 Framework Agreement between the United States and North Korea. [snip]

How "natural and foreseeable" was it that the Framework Agreement would produce a nuclear-armed North Korea, not "an end to the threat of nuclear proliferation on the Korean peninsula"? Consider this: Subject only to editing to change tenses and time references, omit extraneous material and provide logical transitions, the preceding four paragraphs are word-for-word from my diplomatic memoir, "The Politics of Diplomacy," written in 1994, immediately after the Framework Agreement was signed, and published in 1995.

At the end of Mr. Baker's article is this:

The writer was secretary of state from 1989 to 1992.

The writer?! Nah, the compost isn't biased.

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