Posted on 10/13/2026 7:43:24 PM PDT by Miami Rebel
Diesel futures traded sharply higher Tuesday, as doubts mounted about the likely impacts of the Trump administration’s latest efforts to push prices down. U.S. diesel futures were up 5% by midday to their highest level in weeks.
In Europe, diesel futures rose by about 3.8%, while gas futures spiked to levels not seen all year. A move higher in futures markets typically signals that prices will climb in the coming days. Already, the average nationwide price of diesel is up 70% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. The cost of unleaded gas has risen by more than 45% over that period.
Crude oil prices, meanwhile, were mixed. Brent traded around $106 per barrel, while U.S. crude oil neared $95 per barrel. Both of those key energy benchmarks have risen around 70% since the start of the year. Gas and diesel prices are rising especially fast in parts of the country where President Donald Trump and Republicans can least afford to anger voters ahead of November’s midterm elections. “Absolutely stunning price spikes in wholesale diesel today,” Gulf Oil adviser Tom Kloza wrote Tuesday on X. “US retail diesel price record of $6.53/gal could be topped by the midterms.”
“Up 18cts/gal Gulf Coast and East Coast; but up 28cts/gal in Southern California and 25-30cts/gal in Great Plains and Great Lakes,” he wrote. Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, wrote on X that “$6/gal diesel may be here to stay for now. Truckers and farmers not going to see any relief anytime soon,” he wrote.
The broad spike higher in diesel futures came just days after Trump announced a controversial deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to increase diesel supplies in the United States by buying previously sanctioned Russian reserves.
When Trump announced the deal, he said it would result in millions of metric tons of additional diesel for the world. While that may sound like a lot, analysts have since crunched the numbers and determined that, at best, the diesel in question would amount to less than two weeks’ worth of U.S. demand.
Tuesday’s higher diesel futures are evidence of the market “clearly not believing that Russian oil is on the way,” Kloza said. The deal with Putin also required that the Trump administration suspend long-standing sanctions on Russian energy purchases. The sanctions were put in place after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and the decision to lift them until April has drawn widespread backlash both at home and abroad.
Trump has also applied pressure to European allies in an effort to get them to release more of their diesel reserves. The president’s Oct. 2 announcement that Europe had bowed to the pressure and would release fuel temporarily cooled prices for a few days. But a lack of additional details about that release gradually erased any price relief.
A subsequent statement from the International Energy Agency confirmed what traders had suspected: Europe would not be releasing any new diesel reserves, merely continuing to fulfill a pledge it made in March as part of a multinational effort to cap rising fuel prices. Trump also signed an executive order this month that sought to ease restrictions on an off-road formulation of diesel that is dyed red and not subject to federal gas taxes.
But industry groups quickly warned truckers to avoid using “red dye” diesel without more information about how the taxes would work. As of Tuesday, it was unclear whether Trump’s red dye diesel order had any impact on domestic prices or supply.
Well, that sure brought a lot of TDS trolls out of the wood-work - kind of like cockroaches.
While I don’t really know so really cannot say...maybe it is that somehow Dems are holding fuel prices high. The thing is that high fuel prices affect everybody where they are that way, Dems & Repubs alike....but low fixed income seniors the most.
The problem is we can't go back 40 years in time to fight this war. Our relative strength vis-a-vis every country in the world has declined since then. We're stuck in 2026, not 1986, and fiber optically guided drones providing video feeds to their operators are a reality that no jamming affects.
In 1986 the Iranians didn't have ballistic missiles that could devastate the Gulf's fragile extraction, refining, and transportation infrastructure.
Yeah, you can trust 'the usual suspects' to post multiple versions of the official Democrat talking points, day after day after day, while screaming "Run for your lives, we're all gonna die!!!" What a bunch of clowns...
This isn’t just our Deep State.
Ours is colluding with every Deep State on the planet.
The fix is in.
Yes. Exactly.
He hates President Trump. Everything is Trump’s fault to him.
That is WAY too simple minded and misguided an explanation you made there...
Refinery capacity IS the biggest problem. The Ukies are legit in hitting Russian refineries and transport so long as Russia is destroying Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, but it’s problematic for most everyone else. (I should note that Russia took out Ukraine’s modest refineries early in the war, so Ukraine has to import from Europe.)
If one looks at total Russian refinery output, that’s the biggest shortfall, but the shortfalls in the Gulf are next in line, and ramping back up. The latter was predicted by many — Iran clearly wants to drive prices up before the mid-terms.
Transport of refined products has all sorts of additional problems. One that few people consider is that it’s difficult to create a fatal (to a big tanker) fire on a crude carrier, with medium or small size drones. Crude (depending a little on the variety / weight) just doesn’t ignite and burn as easily as lighter products, especially gasoline. The bottom line is that a shipper who might look at the astonishing pay now in play and might be willing to risk sending a crude tanker through the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab-El-Mandeb. A tanker with gasoline and diesel on board is a much riskier proposition.
Given the most recent hits on Saudi refineries, etc., and how that situation is escalating, I will grant you that the supply of refined products to fill up tankers exporting from the Gulf States may dry up again anyway.
Of note: Iran exports essentially no refined products. Their production goes to internal consumption. Some years they have even have to import. US hits on Iranian tankers are of little consequence to diesel and gasoline prices at the current price levels.
Forces are conspiring to keep the pump price artificially high, whether it be in refining, transportation, or combat strategy. The enemies of America are in a full court press to keep that energy price high.
You spelled it out in greater detail than I did and gives readers a deeper understanding of the problem. Thank you!
“...we import primarily due to some libs-caused choke points in distribution...”
Maybe, but it is done basically through Canada which supplies roughly 85% of our imported deisel. As we are the major market for deisel internationally we commit more than we use oversees and balance the domestic with Canadian product.
Canada and the United States do not rely on a single, uniform point of entry; instead, cross-border diesel and refined petroleum products move through a heavily integrated, multi-region network of pipelines, rail lines, marine terminals, and truck routes spanning North America.
The two nations are connected by hundreds of thousands of kilometers of shared pipeline and energy corridors rather than a single choke point. At the same time, Canada—particularly eastern regions like Quebec and Ontario—relies heavily on refined product imports coming back from U.S. refineries through regional cross-border channels. And at the same time, Canada has set up contingency plans with Canadian officials that while the systems are deeply intertwined, backup and diversion plans exist to manage regional shifts if trade policies or export restrictions (such as a potential U.S. export ban) alter traditional flow paths. So we should not be too indebted to Canada as they toss threats all the time. But Canada is more reliant on the US than we are of them with other problems shared with top exports consisting of service like health care along with products:
Industrial Supplies and Materials: The single largest U.S. export category to Canada, valued at over $96.9 billion.
Capital Goods: Includes heavy machinery, equipment, and technology valued at approximately $88.3 billion.
Automotive Vehicles and Parts: Passenger cars, trucks, and components crossing the border frequently within integrated North American supply chains, totaling over $60.5 billion.
Agricultural Products: More than $30 billion in food, feeds, and beverages—including bakery goods, cereals, pasta, fresh fruits, vegetables, and ethanol. Canada purchases 73% of U.S. truck exports and significant shares of regional produce.
• Consumer Goods and Services: Encompasses retail merchandise ($41.4 billion) as well as cross-border commercial, business, financial, and travel services.
So rattling the cage of the US is not too wise for them. It is pretty much a trade imbalance.
wy69
Gasoline and diesel prices here in the Mid-South did decline a bit after Trump’s actions, and pretty much stay there, until things started ramping back up in the Middle East, this weekend, which is NOT the US’ fault — if anything, Trump has “tried too hard” to not respond to Iran and its proxies. They see this as weakness and it emboldens them.
Trump isn’t running for office, Snotslingr.
Oops, excuse me; make that Stupid DemonRat Snotslingr.
When all you have are insults you’ve conceded the argument.
Yeah? Well guess what, nattering nabob of snotty negativity — I’m not here to argue with you because your “argument” isn’t about arriving at understanding, it’s about spreading discontent and discouragement in the ALL-IMPORTANT upcoming midterms. So GFY, troll! You’re a crapstain on the clean underwear of patriotic conservatism. In a just world you and those like you would be scrubbed from this forum. But, alas, JimRob has passed so you turdstains get to remain.
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