Posted on 10/13/2026 7:43:24 PM PDT by Miami Rebel
Diesel futures traded sharply higher Tuesday, as doubts mounted about the likely impacts of the Trump administration’s latest efforts to push prices down. U.S. diesel futures were up 5% by midday to their highest level in weeks.
In Europe, diesel futures rose by about 3.8%, while gas futures spiked to levels not seen all year. A move higher in futures markets typically signals that prices will climb in the coming days. Already, the average nationwide price of diesel is up 70% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. The cost of unleaded gas has risen by more than 45% over that period.
Crude oil prices, meanwhile, were mixed. Brent traded around $106 per barrel, while U.S. crude oil neared $95 per barrel. Both of those key energy benchmarks have risen around 70% since the start of the year. Gas and diesel prices are rising especially fast in parts of the country where President Donald Trump and Republicans can least afford to anger voters ahead of November’s midterm elections. “Absolutely stunning price spikes in wholesale diesel today,” Gulf Oil adviser Tom Kloza wrote Tuesday on X. “US retail diesel price record of $6.53/gal could be topped by the midterms.”
“Up 18cts/gal Gulf Coast and East Coast; but up 28cts/gal in Southern California and 25-30cts/gal in Great Plains and Great Lakes,” he wrote. Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, wrote on X that “$6/gal diesel may be here to stay for now. Truckers and farmers not going to see any relief anytime soon,” he wrote.
The broad spike higher in diesel futures came just days after Trump announced a controversial deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to increase diesel supplies in the United States by buying previously sanctioned Russian reserves.
When Trump announced the deal, he said it would result in millions of metric tons of additional diesel for the world. While that may sound like a lot, analysts have since crunched the numbers and determined that, at best, the diesel in question would amount to less than two weeks’ worth of U.S. demand.
Tuesday’s higher diesel futures are evidence of the market “clearly not believing that Russian oil is on the way,” Kloza said. The deal with Putin also required that the Trump administration suspend long-standing sanctions on Russian energy purchases. The sanctions were put in place after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and the decision to lift them until April has drawn widespread backlash both at home and abroad.
Trump has also applied pressure to European allies in an effort to get them to release more of their diesel reserves. The president’s Oct. 2 announcement that Europe had bowed to the pressure and would release fuel temporarily cooled prices for a few days. But a lack of additional details about that release gradually erased any price relief.
A subsequent statement from the International Energy Agency confirmed what traders had suspected: Europe would not be releasing any new diesel reserves, merely continuing to fulfill a pledge it made in March as part of a multinational effort to cap rising fuel prices. Trump also signed an executive order this month that sought to ease restrictions on an off-road formulation of diesel that is dyed red and not subject to federal gas taxes.
But industry groups quickly warned truckers to avoid using “red dye” diesel without more information about how the taxes would work. As of Tuesday, it was unclear whether Trump’s red dye diesel order had any impact on domestic prices or supply.
Immediately ban the export of all fuels from the US.
Immediately suspend the Federal sales tax on all fuels through January 1.
It would be an immediate 18-20 cent drop in fuel prices.
WIKI
The tanker war, part of the larger Iran–Iraq War, was a series of military attacks by Iran and Iraq against merchant vessels in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz from 1981 to 1988. Iraq was responsible for 283 attacks. Iran accounted for 168.
In 1987, during the conflict, Iran perfected the art of speedboat attacks, and concentrated “their fire on the crew compartments of their target ships.” Iran also used Chinese-made shore-based Silkworm missiles to good effect.
Western-led convoy tactics with armed guard vessels were used for protection in the latter stages of the Tanker War. In 1987, the use of towed, radar-deflecting decoys and other passive countermeasures was successfully initiated.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tanker_war
There are listings of attacks by year (except 1986).
Because the Russia haters are trying to derail the deal. Remember that farmers and truckers.
Gas prices are down around 11 cents Nationally. More crap from Crapcast/NBC.
Nah, we could impose an export LIMIT. Lower prices here would increase US consumption slightly, but that still leaves around 90% of what we presently export free to export.
China’s reserves have already been lowered considerably: I don’t think it matters much whether they hold on to what is left for their own consumption. It’s all part of global demand. The Euro’s may be in better shape — I’ve not seen numbers on that.
The really big new problem is the “blow up” between Saudi and the Houthis. Talk about going over the cliff. But, it was always going to go this way, sooner or later.
MBS in Saudi really screwed up. Instead of $50 billion for his “Line” city, he should have spent it on defense. $50 billion in drones would be handy, right now.
In what categories of refined products does the US not have a positive export margin?
The answer is...
None.
Trump’s statements are not contradictory. Supplies to the global market will drop prices* in the market, which includes us.
*Just not by a whole lot, and it remains to be seen if Russia can even make the deliveries.
There are a couple hitches in that, a big one being this “blow up” between Saudi and the Houthis. But, that was inevitable.
In any event you are thinking out of the box, and lot of that sort of thinking is needed. Most commendable!
The suggestion to armor tankers is not totally nuts. Most hit by Iran have been able to continue on or be recovered, even as it is.
The problem is, such refits would:
Alter the tanker’s stability, requiring likely further mods.
Reduce the tanker’s capacity.
Take time to add.
RE: “armor”: the tanker companies had better check in with the “IT Department” too...Iran recently “reached out & touched” (disabled) an oil tanker off the coast of Texas:
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2110223513965461573?s=20
(Not to mention French freezers: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crq5nzxv9q4yo )
No, we import primarily due to some libs-caused choke points in distribution (lack of pipelines, the Jones Act, and idiotic refinery forced closures.)
An export ban causes more problems than it solves. That’s been thoroughly hashed out, I’m not going to do so again.
Carefully applied export limits conceivably could be less problematic, but are still tricky.
As problems go, that one is pretty easily preventable on tankers. “What’s Going On With Shipping” on You Tube (a real honest and honest to goodness knowledgeable marine authority) discussed this a while back.
Yeah, “Sal M.” makes some good shipping related content.
The high price of oil and diesel is not tied to fundamental of supply and demand, it's tied to market manipulators and Trump opponents wishing to hurt Republicans in the mid term elections to reign in the last two years of the Trump Administration The Russians are ramping up to be dumping millions of tons of diesel onto the world economy, the EU is simultaneity releasing it's strategic reserves of oil and diesel, the Saudi East West pipeline is back up in full operation, the Strait of Hormuz is open and Middle East oil shipments are at or near pre Iran war levels and the US is pumping record levels of oil
All of this is happening simultaneously and the we will soon be in a global surplus situation for diesel and oil and price manipulators are still trying to spike the price of oil in the run up to the November elections.
From ChatGP
“At least 12 tankers have been attacked in the Persian Gulf in the last week, marking the highest number of incidents since the Iran war began. These attacks are primarily targeting vessels that are either Iranian or perceived to be violating Iran's maritime regulations”
So yeah, ships are being attacked but they are trying to smuggle Iranian oil past the blockade . For the rest of the Gulf States, the flow of oil is getting back to or even exceeding pre war levels
For Iran , the blockade is effectively shutting down their oil shipments Bottom line - The Trump economic isolation plan is working , the blockade against iran is working, Iran is no longer controlling the Strait of Hormuz and oil shipments are rapidly shipping at or above pre war levels. We are winning and Iran is losing The anti Trump pro Iran propaganda is off the charts.
✅
Diesel futures went up because, in my opinion, the democrats and Republican helpers, have found a way to nix the Trump deal. It’s the market letting you know.
I bought 25.3 gallons of red diesel yesterday for $150. I cringed at the price, but my tractor is useless without it.
That said, prices at the pump are currently being manipulated to stay high. Once the election is over, nobody will care about gas prices and normal market forces will return.
On February 27, WTI crude was $67/bbl. Gas in my area was $2.50/gallon. For many weeks, WTI has been selling around $90/bbl (except for the last few days). That's an increase of 34% from late February.
If oil has gone up 34%, then gas here should be around $3.36/gallon. Instead, it hovers around $4.00/gallon. Diesel is even worse.
The enemies of America are conspiring to keep prices high in order to help the Democrats in the midterms. Isn't it awful how the enemies of America are always rooting for the Democrats?
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