Posted on 10/13/2026 7:43:24 PM PDT by Miami Rebel
Diesel futures traded sharply higher Tuesday, as doubts mounted about the likely impacts of the Trump administration’s latest efforts to push prices down. U.S. diesel futures were up 5% by midday to their highest level in weeks.
In Europe, diesel futures rose by about 3.8%, while gas futures spiked to levels not seen all year. A move higher in futures markets typically signals that prices will climb in the coming days. Already, the average nationwide price of diesel is up 70% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. The cost of unleaded gas has risen by more than 45% over that period.
Crude oil prices, meanwhile, were mixed. Brent traded around $106 per barrel, while U.S. crude oil neared $95 per barrel. Both of those key energy benchmarks have risen around 70% since the start of the year. Gas and diesel prices are rising especially fast in parts of the country where President Donald Trump and Republicans can least afford to anger voters ahead of November’s midterm elections. “Absolutely stunning price spikes in wholesale diesel today,” Gulf Oil adviser Tom Kloza wrote Tuesday on X. “US retail diesel price record of $6.53/gal could be topped by the midterms.”
“Up 18cts/gal Gulf Coast and East Coast; but up 28cts/gal in Southern California and 25-30cts/gal in Great Plains and Great Lakes,” he wrote. Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, wrote on X that “$6/gal diesel may be here to stay for now. Truckers and farmers not going to see any relief anytime soon,” he wrote.
The broad spike higher in diesel futures came just days after Trump announced a controversial deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to increase diesel supplies in the United States by buying previously sanctioned Russian reserves.
When Trump announced the deal, he said it would result in millions of metric tons of additional diesel for the world. While that may sound like a lot, analysts have since crunched the numbers and determined that, at best, the diesel in question would amount to less than two weeks’ worth of U.S. demand.
Tuesday’s higher diesel futures are evidence of the market “clearly not believing that Russian oil is on the way,” Kloza said. The deal with Putin also required that the Trump administration suspend long-standing sanctions on Russian energy purchases. The sanctions were put in place after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and the decision to lift them until April has drawn widespread backlash both at home and abroad.
Trump has also applied pressure to European allies in an effort to get them to release more of their diesel reserves. The president’s Oct. 2 announcement that Europe had bowed to the pressure and would release fuel temporarily cooled prices for a few days. But a lack of additional details about that release gradually erased any price relief.
A subsequent statement from the International Energy Agency confirmed what traders had suspected: Europe would not be releasing any new diesel reserves, merely continuing to fulfill a pledge it made in March as part of a multinational effort to cap rising fuel prices. Trump also signed an executive order this month that sought to ease restrictions on an off-road formulation of diesel that is dyed red and not subject to federal gas taxes.
But industry groups quickly warned truckers to avoid using “red dye” diesel without more information about how the taxes would work. As of Tuesday, it was unclear whether Trump’s red dye diesel order had any impact on domestic prices or supply.
That's a laughable way to try and protect the largest ships in the world from a fiber optically guided drone.
Another possibility I suggested would be to weld (or bolt) vertical protective plates to horizontal spacers welded (or bolted) to a Strait transit tanker.
That's a laughable way to try and protect the largest ships in the world from a fiber optically guided drone.
Another possibility I suggested would be to weld (or bolt) vertical protective plates to horizontal spacers welded (or bolted) to a Strait transit tanker.
There will be great years of Obama and Biden
and a genius like Kamala Harris!!
THAT will be awesome j/k
Nothing is perfect but I’ll take President Donald Trump
over ANY Godless Reprobate Democrat
What is the marginal cost?
Combat pay, each and every day, for all involved.
The number of US dead, the last count I read was 18. Some servicepeople were severely injured.
There is the cost of fuel for the navy ships and air force planes.
I think flight time is $5,000 to $20,000/hour/plane.
I think a few radars were lost. These might run $20 million each.
A ~$500 million command plane was whacked.
The Kuwaitis shot down three F-15Es as I recollect. The Iranians shot down one plane. A few helicopters have been lost. A barracks in Jordan was blasted hard.
Lots of dumb bombs at about $10-$20 per pound.
I think the smart bombs run about $100,000 each. Ten thousand might be $1 billion.
The missiles are expensive. I think the total cost is several billion dollars.
Now consider the cost of scanning every container of ~$1 trillion of imports yearly, year after year, for Iranian bomb grade U-235.
“Quart of wheat for a denarius, “
* Trump lost his leverage when he signed the Un-Beautiful Signed Government Debt Cult Hooverville Bill.
* He’s now just like those before him ever since Mr. “Read My Lips” 👄
Zero War on 40+Trillion Debt Enslavement Cult Exempt Ones.
The USA has excess oil out the ass. We do not have the refining capacity to make all the products we need from bunker C to all the higher octanes including gasoline and diesel. Actually, we can produce bunker C as that is the bottom of all distillation processes.
The reason we do not have the refining capacity is the democrats blocking expansion of refining capacity via the EPA for decades. Which makes one pause to think, “why are they doing this”!
The USA has excess oil out the ass. We do not have the refining capacity to make all the products we need from bunker C to all the higher octanes including gasoline and diesel. Actually, we can produce bunker C as that is the bottom of all distillation processes.
The reason we do not have the refining capacity is the democrats blocking expansion of refining capacity via the EPA for decades. Which makes one pause to think, “why are they doing this”!
The USA has excess oil out the ass. We do not have the refining capacity to make all the products we need from bunker C to all the higher octanes including gasoline and diesel. Actually, we can produce bunker C as that is the bottom of all distillation processes.
The reason we do not have the refining capacity is the democrats blocking expansion of refining capacity via the EPA for decades. Which makes one pause to think, “why are they doing this”!
“That’s a laughable way to try and protect the largest ships in the world from a fiber optically guided drone.”
A boat (50’?) could drag a surface cable to the north of both ships. This might have cutters which would cut the fiber optic cable.
“largest ships in the world”
Obviously, tankers of a modest size could be protected better.
The Communist DNC DemonRATS are just ecstatic! Any that hurts American makes them happy and breakout in a big smile.
The Communist DNC DemonRATS are just ecstatic! Any that hurts American makes them happy and breakout in a big smile.
The only reason prices are up is because the cabal has its thumb on the scales.
Because they want republicans to lose, so their stooges in Congress can impeach Trump.
I’m serious about the plates.
You can buy a lot of plates for $2.1 billion.
The most direct global estimate comes from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), comparing actual seaborne import prices/volumes (March–August 2026) against the pre-war futures curve (market expectations just before the strikes).
Total additional import bill for fossil-fuel importers: >$330 billion over the six months (average ~$55 billion extra per month)
Add in September and thus far in October and we’re over $400 billion in war premium on the price of just the fossil fuels. Doesn’t even get into the downstream product price increases.
All due to a(mother) stupid war in the Middle East not authorized by Congress, at a foreign nation’s request and benefit, and at our further expense in blood and treasure.
IMO, Z-Man made a bit of a mistake by responding so quickly. Those Russian refineries are not going anywhere, and Russia is a REALLY target-rich environment, even if only military targets are considered. Ukraine could have focused on Russian ammo dumps, missile production and launchers, and similar, for, say, 72 hours, which would have left Putin looking VERY bad if Russia kept hitting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which it’s pretty darn clear Russia was going to do.
Ukraine could even warn that it was suspending said attacks for 3 days, but if they kept getting hit, the saved up long range drones would be unleashed. No one (except the usual idiots) could blame them after that.
The increased attacks, especially by the Houthis on Saudi oil infrastructure, are a primary driver of higher prices now. (Damn!!) (But, it was eventually going to come to this anyway, and surely worse, if Trump hadn’t gone after Iran. Every month, Iran had more missiles.)
Saudi is going to HAVE to do something. If I was them, I’d lease some land, get emergency permits, throw up some metal buildings somewhere out of the easy reach of Iran and its surrogates, work a deal with Ukraine, hire some Taiwanese or South Korean automation experts if none are available in the USA, and get with mass, as in millions, production of Ukie-style drones. Freaking smother the Houthis, and ditto for the mad mullahs and IRGC in Iran, just as soon as production quantities permit. If Trump won’t take out Iran’s refined products supply (a pretty easy job), then Saudi should do it. The idea they should not, to prevent their own energy infrastructure from being hit, has been completely blown up.
Call in Saudi’s new security partners Turkey and Pakistan and make ‘em honor that damn security agreement they all signed, if they ever expect to get any more Saudi oil. If they don’t respond in force, then Saudi will just have to ally with the Israelis and patch things up with UAE. Supposedly the UK said they would aid Saudi — try to get Burnham to honor that. The UK’s capacity is marginal, but, every little bit helps. Ditto for other Euro countries who buy Saudi oil and refined products, or Gulf States’ gas.
This will very likely cause humanitarian crises in Yemen and Iran. Too damn bad. The time for restraint is OVER.
Primary mission: intercept and destroy Shahed, Geran-2 and jet variants before impact. Approach from below the wing, proximity detonation, instant fragmentation.
Critical site protection (power plants, hospitals, depots) via distributed launcher deployment. Response in seconds after radar or acoustic alert.
A P1-SUN costs approximately $1,000 per unit
If you wnt to find the price spike, it’s here rather than in other countries selling to us.
U.S. petroleum refineries produce most of the diesel fuel the United States consumes. Most of the diesel fuel consumed in the United States is distillate fuel with a sulfur content of 15 parts per million or less, which is called ultra-low sulfur distillate or ULSD. ULSD is used as diesel fuel and as heating oil. Biomass-based diesel fuels (biodiesel and renewable diesel) also contribute to the supply of diesel fuel.
In 2025, U.S. refineries produced about 1.76 billion barrels (73.80 billion gallons) of ULSD. Total ULSD consumption in the United States for all uses was about 1.42 billion barrels (59.56 billion gallons). Although ULSD production was higher than ULSD consumption, the United States imported about 0.06 billion barrels (2.40 billion gallons) of ULSD, and about 84% of those imports were from Canada. In 2025, total ULSD imports were equal to about 4% of total ULSD consumption in the United States. The United States exported about 0.40 billion barrels (16.77 billion gallons) of ULSD in 2025.
We import to try to support other countries in trade. We really don’t have to. So, where is the spike coming from? Easy answer.
wy69
I wrote:
At a $30 premium to pre-war pricing, that means it would cost the world $2.1 billion a day to allow Iran to block the Strait.
You wrote:
(average ~$55 billion extra per month)
**********
Your number is pretty close to mine but note that it was in large part the cost of allowing Iran to impede and restrict shipping through Hormuz. There is considerable cost of Iranian crude not reaching markets.
**********
A tanker might cost $100 million. There are about 8 billion people in the world. That tanker would cost about a penny a person.
If Iran was able to sink a tanker each day, it would cost the world economy a penny a person per day.
NOTE: That as the world produces about six per day, tankers would still have to be sent to the breaking yards.
You can’t scan every container… that is the problem.
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